Not well documented... a general skillup concern

[Rten]

I did tradeskilling a while back on my Monk and got his skills up to between 220 and 252... so with the new Artisan Charm I figured hey lets give it a shot. So I make the Charm and set into finishing up the skills. Jump forward 2 weeks. A total of 118 skillups later, I have done approximately 10k (yes literally 10,000) combines. My base stats are 405 (unbuffed to every stat). What the hell is going on with a running average of 90 combines per skill up. I have maxed brewing, jc, and am working on baking atm. Is anyone else seeing the random number generator being this bad? I keep wondering if they broke the stat cap relationship to skillups. And the system is saying max is 330 and basically rolling over as if I was doing tradeskill combines with 75 as my stats... the frustration is mounting.

Rten

Monk
Bristlebane

[Krrak]

I have a 415 Wis and haven't noticed this - getting the usual 1 increase per stack (give or take). And have been working several of my skills to finish out the ones that aren't at 300 yet.

[Rten]

I saw a dev post saying that skill ups for tradeskill trophies had a modifier that varried the skillup rate based on whether or not the combine used store bought items or on looted items. The implication was that store bought items had a slower trophy skillup rate. I am starting to think that the same check maybe applying to base skill-skillups as well. The vast majority of my combines are based on store bought supplies.

Rten

[Bobaten]

You are misremembering the quote. The different tradeskill trophies take different numbers of combine to go from level 6 to level 7 based on how difficult it is to gather materials for 300+ trivial combines. For tradeskills like Jewelcraft, Smithing, or Brewing, where there are combines with 300+ trivial that require no farming, the trophy needs more combines to go from 6 to 7.

[Gorse]

We all have a bad luck streaks. Consider the fun of tens of thousands of combines that many of us did before the advent of the trade skill UI and each part had to be clicked in every time. It made Mino Hero Brew (and later Kaladim Constitutional) a whole lot of fun.

I've multiple runs in the 100+ combines and even a 488 combine (all non trivial) for single points before, and other have had runs over 1000. While 90 per point is no fun, it could be worse. I've been having a long run with research combines having an average of over 40 combines per point for the last 30+ points (212-248 = 1540 combines). It's the long bad runs we feel the worst, because it burns up so much time and resources for little to no gain.

Chin up, there is karma, you will get yours eventually.

[Eanelder]

I keep wondering if they broke the stat cap relationship to skillups. And the system is saying max is 330 and basically rolling over as if I was doing tradeskill combines with 75 as my stats... the frustration is mounting.

I have to admit ive been wondering this too. General rule of thumb for me is that is reasonable to expect 1 skill up for 20 combines. Ive done some runs of Baking and research where ive done 100 combines with only 1 skill up.

I dont mind for most tradeskills, but for research 100 non trivial combines in research with only 1 skill up.... that hurts.

[Elfdruidess]

As far as I understand it, Spell Research, being a Difficulty=1 tradeskill, only needs 215 INT to max skillup rate. Any INT over 215 still gives you the same skillup rate.

High INT/WIS (or STR for smithing, DEX for fletching) is only highly influential on skillup rate for tradeskills that have a Difficulty=4 (Fletching, Pottery). And moderately influential for Difficulty=3 tradeskills (Baking, Brewing) or Difficulty=2 tradeskills (Smithing, Tailoring).

[Taushar]

I have done fletching last 3 months to get it up and experienced the similar thing. I had 405-415 Wisdom the entire time. I went from 286 to 300, that's 24 points, should have taken me about 500-800 combines. It took me over 2200 combines for those 14 points. Blame RNG but I did this over 3 months, and at different times of the day and at different zone. I was averaging about 80-100 combines per skill point it seems. I am about to face tailoring next and at 415 Wisdom, I just did 28 combines and didn't get a skill up. I am very worried.

[rarrazz]

You really never know. With alchemy, on my shaman, he went about 250 combines with how many skillups? 0. Yes, 250 straight with no skill up. Next day, tried again, boom skill up, first try, kept going, didn't do as many combines this time, just about 60, 5 skill ups in there.. big change. It's crazy, that's all I know heh.

[smix]

I'm not joking, but when trying to go from 289 to 290 in jewelcraft I did over 600 combines with no skill ups. Things caught on again after 290 and I got 3 skillups in the next stack of 20.

[thrashette]

I'm going to report this with my teeth gritted.

Try going to a different zone. Skillups appear to get broken in some zones.

My last 5 JC skillups went like this:
900+ combines in thurgadin over a 3 month period - 0 skillups
Step into GD - 3 skillups in 20
Out of velium so back into Thurgadin. 100 combines in thugadin - 0 skillups
Step into GD - 2 skillups immediately, done.

I repeated this practice through 250 to 300 skillups in fletching and tailoring. In a city zone, 1 or no skillups in 50 combines. In an outdoor field zone, 1 in 20 or better. I -flew- through fletching compared to every other report.

I know that this data isn't statistically significant. Hey, it might just be my character being bugged.

But what does it hurt to try?

[Yakk]

With 9999 in 10000 confidence, if you got 118 successes in 10,000 attempts, your success rate was between:

0.00805 and 0.01658

Math done via:
http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/Busin...ConfIntPro.htm
and
http://www.causascientia.org/math_st...portionCI.html

using a confidence of 0.9999.

With 99999 in 100000 confidence:
0.00762 to 0.0173

With 999999 in 1 million confidence:
0.00724 to 0.01796

With 999,999,999 in 1 billion confidence:
0.00634 to 0.01974

Ie, if your chance of success was as high as 2%, there would be less than a 1 in a billion chance that after 10,000 combines you would only have 118 or fewer skillups.

How do you know you made 10,000 skillup combines? Might it have been 5,000?

At 5,000, the "in a billion" confidence works out to:
0.01271 to 0.03932

Anyone remember what the skill-up formula says?

Edit: added "skill-up"

[Bolas]

Skillups are supposed to get more difficult the higher your skill goes. Looks like it's working properly.

Also.. if it's truly random... and the average is one skill up every 35 combines.. then.. in a set of 50 skill ups, you'll have one or more streaks where you take a BUTTLOAD Of combines to get one skill up.. which balances out the time when you get two in a row.. ya know?

-Bolas

[Tanker]

Once again, it's always fun to see what kind of theories people come up with for the vagaries of a "random" system.

Everyone needs to go read Occam one more time.