Success

[magiced3]

Lately, I have been spending a great deal of time working on trade skills and have a few questions and observations. I am sure some have been addressed before on these forums but I have seen it. When starting a skill, component costs are usually cheep and points come easy but latter on just the opposite is true. So I usually try to pick combines that have a high chance of success for sell back reasons. Sometimes I attempt to make items that way above my skill level that can be sold in Bazaar at way above cost just to get the skill. My first question is do you have a better chance of gaining a skill point if the combine attempted is close to you level or do you have a better chance if it is far away. It appears to be the same chance but I have no data. Any thoughts?

Also, I saw on another thread, a formula to calculate trophy trivial levels but didn’t understand it fully. Does anyone know the how to calculate the success ratio? This could be very useful. It might be worth trying to make items that have a low success rate if the markup is large enough. So, what is the formula? Anyone know?

I appreciate your feedback!

[magiced3]

Look at this

I saw this on a Everlore board under the Smithing section:

http://www.everlore.com/skills/default.asp?mode=5&id=548

Any coments?

How to calculate your chance of success when trying to smith an item.

Did you know, a person with 1 skill has the same chance of making successfully a Field splint cloak as someone with 153 skill?

No really! Below you will find out why -
First off, no matter your skill, you will have a minimum 5% chance of success to smith any object. Also, no matter your skill, the MAXIMUM success rate you will have is 95% So bearing this in mind I present the following formula to you which shows your chance of success.
(your skill * 1.15) - (trivial level of item - 70)
So with the example above:
(153 skill *1.15) - (242 trivial of cloak - 70)
175.95 - 172 = about 4% and since that is lower than 5% the actual rate becomes 5%
Now as far as figuring the highest trivial you can have a 95% success rate with, simply do the following.
(skill level * 1.15) - 25
This will give you the highest trivial you will have best success with.
so for mine:
(179 * 1.15) = 205.85
205.85 - 25 = 180.85
so about 180-181 trivial items will I have highest rate of success

[Verdandi]

Spend some time browsing the FAQs. I have a feeling you will find much useful stuff there.

An example:

The theory that explains it all is the following

Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5 (rounded up, for Trivial>= 68)
Success* = Skill - Trivial + 66 (for Trivial < 68)

As for successes and skillups, see this thread. In short, there are rumors that successes give a better chance but this has neither been officially confirmed or statistically proved.

[magiced3]

I saw this formula in a thread before but it was't clear to me. But now it makes a lot of sense. Plus a big help!

Part 2 of my question has to with skilling up. Do you have a better chance of getting a skill point if the attempt has higher skill level? Example you have a skill level of 100, would you have a better chance of gaining a skill point if the attempt was with a combine of 150 versus 120?

[Verdandi]

Whoops, sorry I made a bit of a leap in answering your second question. You are more likely to succeed on things that are closer in trivial to your skill level, so if you are more likely to skill-up on successes then you'll skill-up faster making easier things. So far there isn't anything conclusive on that front, however.

So really the answer to your second question is: we don't know. It's possible, but if so the effect is relatively slight. People have done that kind of research without statistically proving anything (that I know of). So when I was deciding what to use for skilling up, the difficulty of the recipe was no more important to me than the ease of getting materials and value of successes.

Does that help more?

[Carmaris]

Well, again, completely unfounded as far as hard facts are concerned...but back when I was working my tradeskills for the coldain shawl, it seemed to me that it took more combines per skillup if I went all the way to the trivial. If I switched to the next higher item about 10 points before I trivialized the current, the skillups came a bit faster. OR SO IT SEEMED TO ME.

This is purely subjective. It is, however, the method I used, I was happy with it, and I've been wearing my 8th shawl for a while now

Note: Don't do this with Jewelcraft unless you've got tons of plat to melt. It gets very expensive.

[Pojodan]

I've noticed that it seems like the few points before something trivializes there's a lower chance of skilling up than if you're 10 or so points below the trivial.

/agree on the JC, successes usually cost a few gp per combine, failures can cost in the 100s of pp at higher skill levels.

[Sinnyen]

Can I get some clarification on this:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5 (rounded up, for Trivial>= 68)
Success* = Skill - Trivial + 66 (for Trivial < 68)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Does Success* equal a percentage?

Example (FP Bracer = Triv 186. My Skill 140)

Success* = 140 - .75*168 +51.5
Success* = 65.5

Is that a percentage? Or say when you click combine EQ runs a /ran 100. And you have to roll 65 or lower to succeed.

[Verdandi]

Success = %. In your example, 65.5%.

[kiztent]

/agree on the JC, successes usually cost a few gp per combine, failures can cost in the 100s of pp at higher skill levels.

Not to nit pick but a platinum bar is 105pp and a jade is less than 4pp. That combination trivials at 250.

If you set success to 95 and solve for trivial=skill you get 174. Which means at skill 174 you will have a 95 percent chance to make a item that just went trivial (wolf's eye agate and gold at 14pp per combine is 175 trivial).

So...

All your plat combines are going to be at 95 percent success, unless you start making much harder recipes for the fun of it (at 200 skill, the 95 range is 208 and below).

[Feala]

uhm Kiztent, if you set success to 95% you get a required skill of 274 when using that formula...

since skill ends at 252 (253,254,255 debatable, doubtable, not important :b ) you ll end with a max chance of 66% for 250 triv items

Feala...

By the formula if an item has a 250 trivial exactly... you will have a 95% success rate at 239.

250 x .75 = 187.7

187.5 + 51.5 = 239.

This seems to hold true for me almost universally.

[Sinnyen]

Have pseudo-trivals be determined for those reciepes above 250? Like the cultural stuff?

In one thread I read, someone stated cultural success rates are around 50% that would mean that the psudeo-trivial is around 340.

Does this sound accurate?

[kiztent]

uhm Kiztent, if you set success to 95% you get a required skill of 274 when using that formula...

since skill ends at 252 (253,254,255 debatable, doubtable, not important :b ) you ll end with a max chance of 66% for 250 triv items

Verdani said:
Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5 (rounded up, for Trivial>= 68)

Substituting:
95 = x - .75x +51.5

Solving:
.25x = 95 - 51.5
.25x = 43.5
x = 43.5 * 4 = 174

Therefore, when an item is exactly trivial, you have a 95 percent chance to make it at 174 skill (and above).

[Feala]

/blink DOH stupid chanter misstook the 2 formulas