Feedback wanted on High End Combine Trivials and Projected Failure rates

[greenwood_d]

Ok basically I went out got 300 smithing (hate sickles and have more tribute then about 3 years of gaming in storage atm). I have GM trophy at 5% (I know about the gloves and hammer 15% mods). This makes my skill 315 atm. I have both Salvage 3 and Blacksmithing 3. I have been attempting 386 combines for GM Moonglade Armors (BP in particular). I have checked both calculators here and on alla as a guide - both say 85-89% success rate. However, after 6 attempts I have made a whoopin 2 = 33%. I know I need a larger sample to actual complain (being polite in this boards or I would use better and more appropriate language). However, I just tried the Chest Symbol also 386 and failed it too. Worse then that was after failing one of the BPs I did a wrist and failed that one too (316 - 95% success).

I am aware that success is not guaranteed - been doing this long enough - but usually there is some consistency - currently 300-400k done on Metallic Drake Scales atm im more then a lil skeptical the combines are being modded or stuffed.

So here is what I am curious about. Are other smithers having or finding a higher then normal failure rate on these types of combines?

UPDATE: just tried my second Chest Symbol and guess what Failed...so that makes my success now 2 out of 8. 25%. Oh yah.

[Qaladar Bragollach]

GM DoN stuff has a hard coded success rate cap. Its probably around 70% though we're not certain.

You went well below that but its basically just a bad run. You have an extremely small sample size.

[Leana]

Perhaps you'd like to read this thread. I think it is exactly what you are seeking.

http://mboards.eqtraders.com/eq/showthread.php?t=21981


Leana Soulwarden
Blacksmith
Inevitable Storm
The Seventh Hammer

[Ishwar]

As a side note Ogres can use the 10% belt rom seru. http://everquest.allakhazam.com/db/item.html?item=10480

[greebmushroome]

GM DoN stuff has a hard coded success rate cap. Its probably around 70% though we're not certain.

has anyone from sony confirmed that there is a success rate cap? i went through the "Success rates for GM Cuirass/Greaves?" thread and didn't see such a statement.

[KyrosKrane]

I believe (though I'm not positive) that the devs confirmed the existance of a success rate cap on GM armors at the last Fan Faire. They didn't specify the percentage, though.

[Ngreth Thergn]

I will double confirm that there is a cap. And no, will not state what that cap is, at least not at this time.

[eqblackrose]

I am a big grandmaster trader on my server. I make about 3 pieces of grandmaster armor and/or augments a day. I have been keeping track of my successes and failures although I dont have my data in front of me.

Armor Made ~ 60 Full Suits
Augments Made ~ 700 (I have had to refresh my bag of patterns 5 times)

At 345 Skill & maxed AAs :
BP & Legs : ~ 65% success
Sleeves : ~ 70%
Helm,Glove,Boot : ~ 85%
Wrist : ~ 90 %

Its not quite so bad because salvage does occasionally save metallic drake scales, I havent kept track of that part. There does not appear to be any sort of hard cap on grandmaster combines because I do so well on the easier made items. But there is something that isnt matching the calculator. I should be succeeding more that 85% at a 345 Smithing skill making Helmet,Glove,Boot augments that have a 334 trivial.

[Qaladar Bragollach]

There does not appear to be any sort of hard cap on grandmaster combines because I do so well on the easier made items.

Ngreth just said that there is. Perhaps different pieces have different caps.

[Xulan]

Here are my success rates sorted by trivial over 389 total attempts (been wanting go through this for a while, so now is good):

All are with mastery 3. Smithing skill was always 297+. Tailoring was anywhere from 253 to 296 (yes it's a big gap, but I haven't seen much variation in success which means that I probably hit the cap at or close to 253 + 5% = 265 mod skill). I have not been using a skill mod item for the past month and have been enjoying good success rates. Again, most likely due to hitting the caps w/ mastery 3.

All GM armor/symbols
386 Trivial Items (bp & legs)
- smithed bp: 13/21
- smithed legs: 12/24
- smithed bp sym: 15/25
- smithed leg sym: 7/10
- tailored bp sym: 24/34
- tailored leg sym: 27/41

armor: 25/45 = 55.6%
symbols: 73/110 = 66.4%
both: 98/155 = 63.2%


368 Trivial Items (sleeves)
- smithed sleeves: 9/13
- smithed sleeve sym: 6/14 (lots of hate for me =)
- tailored sleeve sym: 30/36

armor: 9/13 = 69.2%
symbols: 36/50 = 72%
both: 45/63 = 71.4%


334 Trivial Items (helm, boots, gloves)
- smithed helm: 7/9
- smithed boots: 6/8
- smithed gloves: 5/5
- smithed helm sym: 5/9
- smithed boots sym: 5/7
- smithed gloves sym: 2/2
- tailored helm sym: 21/24
- tailored boots sym: 21/27
- tailored gloves sym: 21/22

armor: 18/22 = 81.8%
symbols: 75/91 = 82.4%
both: 93/113 = 82.3%


316 Trivial Items (wrists)
- smithed wrists: 11/13
- smithed wrist sym: 5/5
- tailored wrist sym: 35/40

armor: 11/13 = 84.6%
symbols: 40/45 = 88.9%
both: 51/58 = 87.9%


Hypothesis
The success caps on GM armor are:
386 trivial items = ~60% (my rate is 63.2% in 155 attempts)
368 trivial items = ~70% (my rate is 71.4% in 63 attempts)
334 trivial items = ~80% (my rate is 82.3% in 113 attempts)
316 trivial items = ~90% (my rate is 87.9% in 58 attempts)

Interestingly, 250 skill + 5% item + mastery 3 (262 modified) gets one very close to these numbers. It may be that the success cap is based off of this skill level + mastery 3. Calc shows (with 250 + 5% + mastery 3):

386 trivial item = 62%
368 trivial item = 68.75%
334 trivial item = 81.5%
316 trivial item = 88.25%

[Xulan]

I am a big grandmaster trader on my server. I make about 3 pieces of grandmaster armor and/or augments a day. I have been keeping track of my successes and failures although I dont have my data in front of me.

Armor Made ~ 60 Full Suits
Augments Made ~ 700 (I have had to refresh my bag of patterns 5 times)

At 345 Skill & maxed AAs :
BP & Legs : ~ 65% success
Sleeves : ~ 70%
Helm,Glove,Boot : ~ 85%
Wrist : ~ 90 %

Its not quite so bad because salvage does occasionally save metallic drake scales, I havent kept track of that part. There does not appear to be any sort of hard cap on grandmaster combines because I do so well on the easier made items. But there is something that isnt matching the calculator. I should be succeeding more that 85% at a 345 Smithing skill making Helmet,Glove,Boot augments that have a 334 trivial.

Your data clearly proves there are hard caps. Your success rate for every single piece should be ~95% with 345 modified skill and mastery 3 if hard caps did not exist.

[greebmushroome]

I will double confirm that there is a cap. And no, will not state what that cap is, at least not at this time.

thanks for the confirmation!

are you able/willing to say whether the cap is applied before or after smithing/tailoring mastery is taken into account, please? asked another way, will mastery AAs improve the chance of success on the success-capped DoN GM combines?

[Fonceur]

are you able/willing to say whether the cap is applied before or after smithing/tailoring mastery is taken into account, please? asked another way, will mastery AAs improve the chance of success on the success-capped DoN GM combines?

I seem to remember reading that the 30-40% minimum failure rate on bp/leg was not affected by the mastery AA's (just as the minimum 5% failure on anything), so that we were basicaly wasting 18 AA's for no reason, salvage being much more useful on those combines... It does seem consistent with my own experience and others...

[Qaladar Bragollach]

thanks for the confirmation!

are you able/willing to say whether the cap is applied before or after smithing/tailoring mastery is taken into account, please? asked another way, will mastery AAs improve the chance of success on the success-capped DoN GM combines?

Its applied after... this was hashed out with info from devs at a fain faire quite a long time ago. I don't know if the threads are still kicking around.

Basically though, if your skill is high enough that you are hitting a success cap (60% 70% 95% whatever, it doesn't matter) then mastery does nothing for you.

[Bobaten]

Basically, if you are at 250 skill with a 5% mod, and no mastery, you have 3 choices.
1. skill up to 300
2. get a 15% mod
3. get the mastery aa
any one of these will take you to the success cap.