Skill level for max success on GM armors?

[Bumkus]

Ok. So, people with larger data sets than mine have seen higher success rates on 386 triv GM combines at skill 260ish with mastery 3, than they have with 300ish and mastery 3.

My assumption is that GM success rates are capped at 60%, as opposed to being scaled to max success of 60% at 300.

So, at 265 + 5% + Mastery 3, calculator puts me at 70% success. Leaving off the +5% item, 265 + 0% + Mastery 3, the calculator returns 63.5% By my understanding, I would have the same success with or without the +5% modifier, 60% success in both cases.

I have finally scrounged enough hides to attempt a tunic and I really want to maximize my chance at success. So the question is, do I attempt the combine with or without the +5% mod item equipped? Any thoughts?

[Zacatac]

My assumption is that GM success rates are capped at 60%, as opposed to being scaled to max success of 60% at 300.

Where does that assumption come from exactly?

I'm 4 of 4 on GM armor, and 5 of 7 on GM augments.
300 skill + 5% and Mastery-3

[Boleslav]

I would equip the 5% mod item. No one has an exact figure on the 'min fail chance' for GM armors. So, not knowing, I would want every edge I could get.

I have had pretty good success (4 of 6) in making GM armor at a skill of 267 and BS Mastery 3.

Boleslav

[Xulan]

Where does that assumption come from exactly?

I'm 4 of 4 on GM armor, and 5 of 7 on GM augments.
300 skill + 5% and Mastery-3

That is way too small of a data set to make a conclusion. The assumption comes from the 3 largest data sets we have in the smithing forum. I would be interested to see more larger data sets (100+, and yes that is still small but it's all we have really).

[Xulan]

Well, I found something funky with my tailoring. Since I am currently still skilling up (doing nothing but gm augs) I've found an interesting thing. It could be a coincidence, but I find it odd.

I started making GM augs via tailoring (my race only has silk, no leather, so I haven't been able to make any silk armor) when my skill was 253 (265 w/5%). I had almost an 86% success rate with ~70 attempts. Around when I hit 268 (281 w/5% - I did hit 268 just 2 combines after 267, so may be 280 w/5% that is the key number), my success rate dropped to nearly 60%. I thought it a bad run with the rng, but my success rate continued to be ~60% until I hit 275. At that point, I took a chance and unequipped my trophy and guess what? My success rate went back up to 80%+. It could very well just be the rng, but I am interested to see what will happen when my skill hits 280/281 unmodified, if it will go back down to 60%ish.

Here is my data:

GM Tailoring w/ mastery 3, skill levels 253 to 276.
Augs: 93/116 = 80.2% (I'm still recovering from the ~60% success run)

GM Smithing w/ mastery 3, skill levels 297 to 300:
Armor: 57/87 = 65.5%
Augs: 40/67 = 59.7%
Total: 97/154 = 63%

I *still* talk to people with ~80% success rates who have either mastery 2 and high skill or mastery 3 and lower skill. The people with high skill and mastery 3 seem to have around 60% (there are 3 data sets with 100+ combines in the smithing success rates forum and no data contrary to them of the same sample size).

[Bumkus]

Where does that assumption come from exactly?

I probably should have mentioned that my assumptions come largely for a thread in the Smithing forum. I am further assuming that the calculations that run smithing combines also handle tailoring combines.

I know, assumption after assumption after assumption. Good way to get m'self into trouble.

Well, I do believe I will attempt my GM Tunic tonight at 265 tailoring, mastery 3, without equipping the +5% needle.

Thanks for the thoughts. And thanks to Xulan and others who have posted such large data sets for us to look at.

[Eleena Transient]

It is possible that the logic looks like this:

Base skill, add modifiers.
Lookup % chance for success
if (chance > 60%) {
return 60%
} else {
return chance + (1-chance)*aa modifier
}

examples, say your skill should give you at 50% chance, it sees you aren't capped, so makes the AA adjustment (assuming lvl 3 here) and gives you a 75% chance at success. If you had a 59% chance, it sees you aren't capped and makes adjustment, giving you 79.5%. But, if you are 60% it sees you are capped, and just returns the 60%.

Would explain why some get 80% and some with more get 60%

[Zacatac]

Ok, I haven't really been following that particular thread much.

1. I'm 300 skill, I can't change that
2. I have Smithing Mastery-3, I can't change that

So reading about people saying you should stop at lower skill, or not buy the AA's, and you get better chance of success, doesn't really help me much at this point.

[Aubriana]

I've had similar results when making Black Gold Inlay. Before i hit 300 skill in smithing, I only failed ONE black gold inlay combine out of the 12 or so I made. After I hit 300 skill, I failed on three in a row, and my success rate has dropped to the 60% rate suggested here as max. In fact, the drop in success rate is so obviously noticeable with the black gold inlay combines, as well as with the tailored and smtihed versions of the grandmaster augs, that i usually just have guildmates with skill leves in the 270's make them for me. And they rarely fail.

You would think that having a higher skill level would be rewarded, not punished, but I feel like i'm being punished because my aa's just don't seem to work... I rarely salvage anything now that i'm 300 skill... and mastery 3 is supposed to INCREASE chance of success, and i'm not seeing that AT ALL. Before I hit 300 skill, I almost always salvaged at least one item on a failure. Now, I'm lucky if I salvage anything at all.

It would be nice if this could be looked into by a couple of GMs with an unlimited supply of the ingredients. One could use salvage and aa masteries, the other could do runs without them. And check the success / failure ratios from 260 to 300 and then do a nice long run at 300 to check the success /failure rates for that.

Aubriana
Master Artisan Druid
Seventh Hammer

[Bumkus]

Well, went 1 for 2 on BP with 265 and no 5% needle and mastery 3. Even salvaged a hide on the fail. I think I am pretty please with that outcome

[Milowfv]

Really no point in saying what your success was on 2 or 3 combines.

What would be interesting is if there is an error in the logic Sony use to check falure rates with mastery AA's. I woudnt be surprised if the AA at low skill allow you to exced the min failure because of the way/order it checks. To me it seem it would be easyer to debug the code by placeing check in the code that just show the desinger what the chance of sucess is at after each stage is. I already find it silly a system where being a top master with 300 skill isnt much diff then someone with 260 skill with the correct AA and item with min falure rates of 60-80 percent. It would just add insult to injury if you dont have the same chance, but a worse one once you skill up to high.

[Bumkus]

Really no point in saying what your success was on 2 or 3 combines.

The real point is that this bst feels strongly enough that something is sufficiently amiss to attempt the hardest and riskiest combine he has ever done without his tailoring mod item equipped. The real reason I mentioned that I actually succeeded on one of the combines is simply that I was very happy to finally have one of the GM BP's. Shoot, I was so happy I would have told my dog about it, if I had a dog that is.

And, gee, wouldn't we all like to have direct access to the underlying code. But we don't.