The calculator appears to be incorrect

[Twistagain]

Twistagain, I'm pretty sure there's a mistake in your macro. In the mastery part. I'm a bit woozy now, but I'll look at it in more detail later on. Should be something like:

PrecapRate = PrecapRate + ((1 - PrecapRate) * 0.5)

Adjusted for each one. Again, I'm not sure, I'll have to study it when I'm a bit more clear-headed.

Those are equivalent, Kyroskrane.

PrecapRate + ((1-PrecapRate)*0.5) = 1-((1-PrecapRate)*0.5)
PrecapRate + .5 - .5*PrecapRate = 1-.5 + .5*PrecapRate
.5*PrecapRate + .5 = .5 + .5*PrecapRate

[Konjure]

Turns out there's a little thing in the code that doesn't use Mastery AA's unless your skill is MORE than 0, so at 0... nothing.

Now, at 1, it turns out your chance to succeed can very well be VERY negative when we enter the Mastery code, <cut>

Thank you for the clarification. Means less time pondering and more time with EQ for me. (I had an option in the code to switch between the 2 different behaviours but now I can remove that, add the skill 0 anomaly, and feel confident that my proggie will be decently accurate. )

[KyrosKrane]

Those are equivalent, Kyroskrane.

Eh. Like I said, I was woozy and looking at it at 5am after a long session fighting the war in EQ.

[KyrosKrane]

OK, I took Twistagain's macro code and modified it a bit, adding in some rudimentary error checking, the alternate formula for low trivial combines, and the the failure reduction check for deeply trivial combines. I also added in a ton of comments. I've put it through some test cases and it seems to work as expected. If anyone finds any bugs, please let me know.

Function SuccessRate(Trivial As Integer, RawSkill As Integer, Optional Modifier As Integer = 0, Optional Mastery As Integer = 0) As Double
	'Expected Inputs:
	'Trivial: Integer greater than or equal to zero
	'RawSkill: Integer in the range of 0 to 300
	'Modifier: Integer greater than or equal to zero. 5 indicates 5%, etc. This is optional; you may choose to not include it. The default value is no modifier. However, you must include it if you use mastery.
	'Mastery: Integer from 0 to 3, inclusive. 0 = no mastery, 1 = Crafting Mastery 1, etc. This is optional; you may choose to not include it. The default value is no mastery.
	
	'Returns: The predicted average success rate for a given combine, as a Double between 0 and 1, inclusive. Multiply by 100 to get the percentage as a number between 0 and 100.
	'If invalid arguments are supplied, the function returns -1.


	'Error Checking
	If Trivial < 0 Or RawSkill < 0 Or RawSkill > 300 Or Modifier < 0 Or Mastery < 0 Or Mastery > 3 Then
		SuccessRate = -1
		Exit Function
	End If
    
	'Combines with trivial 16 or less always succeed:
	If Trivial <= 15 Then
		SuccessRate = 1
		Exit Function
	End If
		
		
	'The skill modified by a geerlok or similar
	Dim ModifiedSkill As Double
	
	'The base chance of success, before caps are applied
	Dim PrecapRate As Double
	
	'The maximum chance to succeed a combine -- this is calcuated
	Dim UpperCap As Double
	
	'The minimum chance to succeed is fixed
	Const LowerCap = 0.05
	
	
	'Calculate modified skill to account for geerloks or similar
	ModifiedSkill = Int(RawSkill * (Modifier / 100 + 1))

	'Calculate the chance of success before the upper and lower caps are applied
	If Trivial < 68 Then
		PrecapRate = (ModifiedSkill - Trivial + 66) / 100
	Else
		PrecapRate = (ModifiedSkill - 0.75 * Trivial + 51.5) / 100
	End If

	'Apply mastery if appropriate
	If RawSkill <> 0 Then

		Select Case Mastery
			Case 1
			    'Mastery 1 reduces the chance to fail by 10%
			    PrecapRate = PrecapRate + ((1 - PrecapRate) * 0.1)
			Case 2
			    'Mastery 2 reduces the chance to fail by 25%
			    PrecapRate = PrecapRate + ((1 - PrecapRate) * 0.25)
			Case 3
			    'Mastery 3 reduces the chance to fail by 50%
			    PrecapRate = PrecapRate + ((1 - PrecapRate) * 0.5)
		End Select

	End If
	
	'Calculate the upper cap for the chance of success
	If RawSkill >= Trivial + 40 Then
		'Apply check for very trivial combines; it can reduce the chance to fail slightly
	   UpperCap = 0.95 + (Int((RawSkill - Trivial) / 40)) / 100
	   
	   'Chance to succeed can never exceed 100%, so check to make sure we never get above that
	   If UpperCap > 1 Then UpperCap = 1
	Else
		UpperCap = 0.95
	End If

	'Apply upper and lower caps, and return the appropriate result
	If PrecapRate > UpperCap Then
		SuccessRate = UpperCap
	ElseIf PrecapRate < LowerCap Then
		SuccessRate = LowerCap
	Else
		SuccessRate = PrecapRate
	End If

End Function

This still doesn't account for the minimum chance to fail that can be applied to some combines. However, since we don't have any confirmed values for minimum fail rate, I figured we may as well skip it for now.

Edit: This code is significantly NOT optimized. It's written to promote readability. There are a ton of optimizations that could be done to speed it up. I'll leave that as an exercise for the capable reader. =)

Edit 2: Fixed a minor bug relating to skill modifying items.

Edit 3: Added the no-fail code.

Edit 4: Cleaned up the code on raising the success cap for deeply trivial combines. This should account for some odd corner cases.

Edit 5: Corrected the no-fail code to work with trivial 15 or less.

[Ngreth Thergn]

Ok, fine, you guys got me curious.

Turns out there's a little thing in the code that doesn't use Mastery AA's unless your skill is MORE than 0, so at 0... nothing.

Arg! more changes to that blasted page!

Thanks though Tanker!!!

[Ngreth Thergn]

here is my code, minus the form and basic page layout HTML

/***************************************************************************
// Make sure all data sent to the sheet is within allowable parameters
//
// skill: from 0 to 300 inclusive
// prime: Prime Stat no lower than 0 (curently no cap set since this bar keeps moving).  Form limits to 999
// trivial: no lower than 0.  No max set since no max has been indicated.  Form limits to 999
// mod: tradeskill mod limited from 0 to 100 inclusive.
*/

if ($data) {
	if ($data['skill'] < 1) $data['skill'] = '0';
	if ($data['skill'] > 300) $data['skill'] = 300;
	if ($data['prime'] < 1) $data['prime'] = '0';
	//if ($data['prime'] > 405) $data['prime'] = 405;
	if ($data['trivial'] < 1) $data['trivial'] = '0';
	if ($data['mod'] < 1) $data['mod'] = '0';
	if ($data['mod'] > 100) $data['mod'] = 100;
}

/***************************************************************************
// HTML form display bellow
*/?>

HTML cut out here...

<?php
/***************************************************************************
//
// If data is set.  start the table below the HTML form
*/
if (isset($data)) {
	print "<table cellpadding=\"2\" hspace=\"10\" bordercolor=\"#400000\" border=\"2\" cellspacing=\"0\">
    <tr bgcolor=\"#E3E4D3\"><td>";

	//set a modified skill value
	$skill = floor($data['skill']*(100+$data['mod'])/100);  
	
	//run the base success formula as decided by the community
	if ($data['trivial'] < 68) {
		$success = $skill - $data['trivial'] + 66;
	} else {
		$success = ($skill-($data['trivial'] * 0.75)) + 51.5;
	}

	// If skill is 0, ignore tradeskill AA 
	// if skill is greater, calculate the fail modifier to success, and increment success by that.
	if ($data['skill'] > 0) {
		$fail = 100-$success;
		$fail = $aa*$fail/100;
		$success += $fail;
	} 

	//cap success
	if ($success < 5) $success = 5;
	if ($success > 95) $success = 95;
	//as skill gets greater than trivial, in steps of 40, reduce the chance to fail further.
	//this could probably be done formulaicly instead of conditionally
	if ($data['skill'] > $data['trivial']) {
		if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 200) {
			$success = 100;
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 160) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.20));
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 120) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.40));
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 80) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.60));
                } else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 40) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.80));
		} 
	}
	
	
	//display the new calculated data
	print "Ajusted Skill = $skill<br>";
	print "Success chance = $success%<br>";
	
	/***************************************************************************
	// calculate the success chances.  Sorry about the nonsense variable names, I was making them for the original formulas
	// from soe.
	// Also $si is an array for easy future changes when all data for tradeskill dificulties are in and I make a dropdown 
	// with the apropriate data.
	//
	// $s = stat
	// $si[0] = tradeskill dificulty
	// $si[1] = is the flag (1|0) for if there is an alternate stat
	// $second = second check.  Used to signify the chance for skillup on the second pass.
	// n is used to signify the chance of skillup on first pass
	// $nf = n for failed combine.  (n was used in original formula given by SOE.)  N is the FIRST check.
	// $ns = n for success.  (again, this is the first check)
	// $suf = skillup chance on a failed combine.
	// $sus = skillup chance on a combine that succeded.
	// $sut = overall chance of skillup
	//
	*/
	if (($data['trivial'] > $data['skill']) and ($data['skill'] < 300)) {
		// standby code for if I implement the dropdown
		//$si=split('-',$data['trade']);
		
		// if the stat used is for a tradeskill that has an alternate stat, leave the stat as is
		// otherwise, reduce the stat by 15.  It cannot be less than 0.
		if ($si[1]) {
			$s = $data['prime'];
		} else {
			$s = $data['prime']-15;
		}
		if ($s < 0) $s=0;
		
		// calculate the chance of skillup from pass one.
		// note that there is half the chance if the combine was a fialure
		// cap both at 100
		$nf = ($s*10)/($si[0]*2)/10;
		$ns = ($s*10)/$si[0]/10;
		if ($ns > 100) $ns = 100;
		if ($nf > 100) $nf = 100;
		
		// calculate the chance of skillup from pass two.
		//
		// if BASE skill is less than or equal to 15, pass two is 100%
		// or do the new formula is the base skill is greater than 175
		// else, the skill is between 15 and 176, use the old formula
		//
		if ($data['skill'] <= 15) {
			$second = 1;
		} else if ($data['skill'] > 175) {
			$second = (12.5-((10/125.0)*($data['skill']-175)))/100;
		} else {
			$second = (200-$data['skill'])/200;
		}
		
		// round the two chances, and make a total chance.
		$suf = round($nf*$second,2);
		$sus = round($ns*$second,2);
		$sut = round((($sus*$success/100) + ($suf*(100-$success)/100)),2);
	} else { // if base skill is higher than the trivial, or base skill is 300 (or more) there is no chance of skillup.
		$sus = 0;
		$suf = 0;
		$sut = 0;
	}
	
	print "Chance of skill up on Success: $sus%, on failure: $suf%, <strong>overall $sut%</strong>"; 
	print "</td></tr></table>";
}
?>

[KyrosKrane]

Ngreth, I eyeballed your code, and it looks right. Just a couple of quick comments.

First, you helped me catch two bugs in my code. Thanks! =)

Second, you don't show where you set the value $aa. I'm assuming that gets set correctly in the chunks you removed.

Third, combines with trivial 16 or less are no-fail. In fact, I don't think it's possible to have a trivial less than 16, since that means the combine difficulty (which is the underlying variable used to determine the trivial) is less than zero.

Fourth, about the reduction of fail rates for very trivial combines. What happens is that the upper cap on the chance to succeed is raised -- which isn't the same thing as reducing the fail rate. However, your code works since every time that code kicks in, the chance to succeed is already at 95%. Still, I would recommend changing the following block:

	//as skill gets greater than trivial, in steps of 40, reduce the chance to fail further.
	//this could probably be done formulaicly instead of conditionally
	if ($data['skill'] > $data['trivial']) {
		if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 200) {
			$success = 100;
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 160) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.20));
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 120) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.40));
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 80) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.60));
        } else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 40) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.80));
		} 
	}

To this:

	//as skill gets greater than trivial, in steps of 40, reduce the chance to fail further.
	if ($data['skill'] >= $data['trivial'] + 40) {
		$success = 95 + floor(($data['skill'] - $data['trivial']) / 40);
	}

This also implements the formulaic change you mentioned.

Other than that, it all looks good. =)

[Xulan]

Third, combines with trivial 16 or less are no-fail. In fact, I don't think it's possible to have a trivial less than 16, since that means the combine difficulty (which is the underlying variable used to determine the trivial) is less than zero.

Please correct me with a reference, but I was under the impression that 15 and under is no-fail regardless of level. I've noticed that things like GM metal sheets (when one converts them from a brick to sheet) is 15. Rallic packs are 15, etc. I've also noticed things that are trivial 16 that are failable namely the unfired and fired artisan's seal for the GM trophies. Lots more examples I am sure but those come to mind.

[KyrosKrane]

I'll go back and double check; I could be off by one.

[KyrosKrane]

OK, here's my line of thought. This is kinda stream of consciousness.

You're right, no-fail recipes seem to be trivial 15. This can easily be verified as you can skill up to that point on them -- e.g., making silk thread or silk swatches.

Off the top of my head, I remember Tanker saying trivial 16 combines were no-fail two Fan Faires ago, but it was a comment in passing and I wasn't paying too much attention -- not to mention that my memory has faded since then. On the other hand, I do remember when the new interface went live, all trivials appeared in the UI to be off by one from what we had expected. This was fixed within a day or so.

Difficulty 0 = Trivial 16.
Difficulty -1 = Trivial 15.

This presents a problem of elegance. Previous to OoW, the highest known difficulty item was trivial 335, which works out to difficulty 250. In Omens, we got some stuff with trivial 351, which works out to difficulty 262. This was the first time we had a confirmed difficulty over 255 -- a magic number in computers, as it tells us something about the nature of how the program is written.

Given this, I'm a bit uncomfortable with -1 as a valid difficulty value. And yet, it must be, which calls into question the reliability of the assumption that until Omens, the highest possible difficulty was 255. It also begets the question of whether lower difficulties are possible, and what those values would mean -- would quest combines have difficulty -16, for example, leading to trivial 0? Or -15, giving trivial 1, since you never get a trivial message on non-tradeskill quest combines? It raises a host of interesting questions.

There's an easy way to test. Make a newbie toon, and have him make class 1 wood point arrow (large groove). Should only cost a few silver per try. If even one fails, then we know for sure that trivial 16 is failable.

However, I'm going to pre-emptively correct my formula to use 15 as a no-fail combine.

[Xulan]

There's an easy way to test. Make a newbie toon, and have him make class 1 wood point arrow (large groove). Should only cost a few silver per try. If even one fails, then we know for sure that trivial 16 is failable.

Done and confirmed. I failed multiple times in a run of 20 with skill levels of 0 through 5 (I failed at least once at each skill level). I triple checked to make sure it was the 16 trivial (large groove) class 1 wood point arrow.

[Ngreth Thergn]

Ngreth, I eyeballed your code, and it looks right. Just a couple of quick comments.

First, you helped me catch two bugs in my code. Thanks! =)

cool

Second, you don't show where you set the value $aa. I'm assuming that gets set correctly in the chunks you removed.

yea it is directly part of the radio buttons.

Tradeskill AA: no<input type="radio" name="aa" value="0"<?php if ($aa <= 9) print " checked";?>> 
&nbsp;&nbsp;1<input type="radio" name="aa" value="10"<?php if ($aa == 10) print " checked";?>>
&nbsp;&nbsp;2<input type="radio" name="aa" value="25"<?php if ($aa == 25) print " checked";?>> 
&nbsp;&nbsp;3<input type="radio" name="aa" value="50"<?php if ($aa == 50) print " checked";?>>

Third, combines with trivial 16 or less are no-fail. In fact, I don't think it's possible to have a trivial less than 16, since that means the combine difficulty (which is the underlying variable used to determine the trivial) is less than zero.

has this actually been confirmed with anything but anecdotal evidence?

Fourth, about the reduction of fail rates for very trivial combines. What happens is that the upper cap on the chance to succeed is raised -- which isn't the same thing as reducing the fail rate. However, your code works since every time that code kicks in, the chance to succeed is already at 95%. Still, I would recommend changing the following block:

	//as skill gets greater than trivial, in steps of 40, reduce the chance to fail further.
	//this could probably be done formulaicly instead of conditionally
	if ($data['skill'] > $data['trivial']) {
		if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 200) {
			$success = 100;
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 160) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.20));
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 120) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.40));
		} else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 80) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.60));
        } else if (($data['skill']-$data['trivial']) >= 40) {
			$success = 100 - ((100-$success)*(.80));
		} 
	}

To this:

	//as skill gets greater than trivial, in steps of 40, reduce the chance to fail further.
	if ($data['skill'] >= $data['trivial'] + 40) {
		$success = 95 + floor(($data['skill'] - $data['trivial']) / 40);
	}

This also implements the formulaic change you mentioned.

Other than that, it all looks good. =)

cool. I was just being extra paranoid with the code

[KyrosKrane]

has this actually been confirmed with anything but anecdotal evidence?

Yes and no. It turns out as per the later posts that 16 is failable, but 15 is not.

To date, I have not heard of a combine with trivial less than 15 (you can actually check this better than me with a quick database query), and all known combines with trivial 15 are no fail (again, this could be checked by doing a query for all recipes with trivial = 15, and checking that they're no-fail). However, I'm positive I heard one of the devs commenting on how no-fail combines are implemented; I just can't remember the details. I think it was Tanker at the Fan Faire last year, but ... well, that sounds like me taking a guess in a game of Clue (it was Tanker at the Fan Faire with the keyboard!). Not the most reliable citation.

Still, we may be able to get somewhere if you run those two queries. Maybe the community can help by working towards confirming the trivials of other no-fail items -- has Xanthe's earring been confirmed yet? We know it's no-fail, but people do get skillups making it, implying it has an actual trivial.

[Ngreth Thergn]

just raw output.

"shade silk thread"
"fishing bait"
"small piece of velium"
"small piece of velium"
"pie tin"
"birthday cake slice"
"small brick of velium"
"small brick of velium"
"small brick of velium"
"low quality bear skin"
"medium quality rockhopper hide"
"engraved royal velium field plate"
"ruined wolf pelt"
"ruined bear pelt"
"low quality cat pelt"
"medium quality bear skin"
"low quality wolf skin"
"silk thread"
"silk swatch"
"low quality rockhopper hide"
"mixing bowl"
"vegetables"
"cake round"
"wedding cake slice"
"pot"
"ruined cat pelt"
"skewers"
"enchanted cazicite bar"
"spinechill silk swatch"
"large clay jar"
"crystalline silk swatch"
"barbarian shaped cookie cutter"
"medium clay jar"
"large bowl"
"medium bowl"
"idol of rallos zek"
"idol of tunare"
"idol of fizzlethorpe bristlebane"
"idol of the tribunal"
"small wisdom deity"
"shade silk swatch"
"muffin tin"
"troll shaped cookie cutter"
"golden idol of Bertoxxulous"
"golden idol of brell serilis"
"golden idol of Cazic Thule"
"golden idol of erollisi marr"
"golden idol of Karana"
"golden idol of Mithaniel Marr"
"golden idol of Prexus"
"golden idol of Rallos Zek"
"golden idol of Rodcet Nife"
"golden idol of Solusek Ro"
"panther pate"
"idol of Quellious"
"idol of erollisi marr"
"idol of rodcet nife"
"idol of Brell Serilis"
"idol of Karana"
"idol of Prexus"
"idol of Cazic Thule"
"idol of Solusek Ro"
"idol of bertoxxulous"
"idol of innoruuk"
"idol of mithaniel marr"
"golden idol of Quellious"
"small clay jar"
"small protection deity"
"animal shaped cookie cutter"
"gnome shaped cookie cutter"
"small resisting deity"
"pearl encrusted stein"
"peridot encrusted stein"
"heavy pie crock"
"shaped ashwood recurve bow"
"shaped ashwood recurve bow"
"rough hickory recurve bow"
"rough hickory recurve bow"
"rough hickory recurve bow"
"rough hickory recurve bow"
"rough hickory recurve bow"
"rough hickory recurve bow"
"rough elm recurve bow"
"rough elm recurve bow"
"rough elm recurve bow"
"rough elm recurve bow"
"rough elm recurve bow"
"rough elm recurve bow"
"carved elm recurve bow"
"carved elm recurve bow"
"carved elm recurve bow"
"carved elm recurve bow"
"carved elm recurve bow"
"carved elm recurve bow"
"rough ashwood recurve bow"
"rough ashwood recurve bow"
"rough ashwood recurve bow"
"rough ashwood recurve bow"
"rough ashwood recurve bow"
"rough ashwood recurve bow"
"carved ashwood recurve bow"
"carved ashwood recurve bow"
"carved ashwood recurve bow"
"carved ashwood recurve bow"
"carved ashwood recurve bow"
"carved ashwood recurve bow"
"shaped ashwood recurve bow"
"shaped ashwood recurve bow"
"shaped ashwood recurve bow"
"shaped ashwood recurve bow"
"rough oak recurve bow"
"rough oak recurve bow"
"rough oak recurve bow"
"rough oak recurve bow"
"rough oak recurve bow"
"rough oak recurve bow"
"carved oak recurve bow"
"carved oak recurve bow"
"carved oak recurve bow"
"carved oak recurve bow"
"carved oak recurve bow"
"carved oak recurve bow"
"shaped oak recurve bow"
"shaped oak recurve bow"
"shaped oak recurve bow"
"shaped oak recurve bow"
"shaped oak recurve bow"
"shaped oak recurve bow"
"rough oak 1-cam bow"
"rough oak 1-cam bow"
"rough oak 1-cam bow"
"rough oak 1-cam bow"
"rough oak 1-cam bow"
"rough oak 1-cam bow"
"carved oak 1-cam bow"
"carved oak 1-cam bow"
"carved oak 1-cam bow"
"carved oak 1-cam bow"
"carved oak 1-cam bow"
"carved oak 1-cam bow"
"shaped oak 1-cam bow"
"shaped oak 1-cam bow"
"shaped oak 1-cam bow"
"shaped oak 1-cam bow"
"shaped oak 1-cam bow"
"shaped oak 1-cam bow"
"rough darkwood recurve bow"
"rough darkwood recurve bow"
"rough darkwood recurve bow"
"rough darkwood recurve bow"
"rough darkwood recurve bow"
"rough darkwood recurve bow"
"carved darkwood recurve bow"
"carved darkwood recurve bow"
"carved darkwood recurve bow"
"carved darkwood recurve bow"
"carved darkwood recurve bow"
"carved darkwood recurve bow"
"shaped darkwood recurve bow"
"shaped darkwood recurve bow"
"shaped darkwood recurve bow"
"shaped darkwood recurve bow"
"shaped darkwood recurve bow"
"shaped darkwood recurve bow"
"rough darkwood 1-cam bow"
"rough darkwood 1-cam bow"
"rough darkwood 1-cam bow"
"rough darkwood 1-cam bow"
"rough darkwood 1-cam bow"
"rough darkwood 1-cam bow"
"carved darkwood 1-cam bow"
"carved darkwood 1-cam bow"
"carved darkwood 1-cam bow"
"carved darkwood 1-cam bow"
"carved darkwood 1-cam bow"
"carved darkwood 1-cam bow"
"shaped darkwood 1-cam bow"
"shaped darkwood 1-cam bow"
"shaped darkwood 1-cam bow"
"shaped darkwood 1-cam bow"
"shaped darkwood 1-cam bow"
"shaped darkwood 1-cam bow"
"rough darkwood compound bow"
"rough darkwood compound bow"
"rough darkwood compound bow"
"rough darkwood compound bow"
"rough darkwood compound bow"
"rough darkwood compound bow"
"carved darkwood compound bow"
"carved darkwood compound bow"
"carved darkwood compound bow"
"carved darkwood compound bow"
"carved darkwood compound bow"
"carved darkwood compound bow"
"shaped darkwood compound bow"
"shaped darkwood compound bow"
"shaped darkwood compound bow"
"shaped darkwood compound bow"
"shaped darkwood compound bow"
"shaped darkwood compound bow"
"rough shadewood recurve bow"
"rough shadewood recurve bow"
"rough shadewood recurve bow"
"rough shadewood recurve bow"
"rough shadewood recurve bow"
"rough shadewood recurve bow"
"carved shadewood recurve bow"
"carved shadewood recurve bow"
"carved shadewood recurve bow"
"carved shadewood recurve bow"
"carved shadewood recurve bow"
"carved shadewood recurve bow"
"shaped shadewood recurve bow"
"shaped shadewood recurve bow"
"shaped shadewood recurve bow"
"shaped shadewood recurve bow"
"shaped shadewood recurve bow"
"shaped shadewood recurve bow"
"rough shadewood 1-cam bow"
"rough shadewood 1-cam bow"
"rough shadewood 1-cam bow"
"rough shadewood 1-cam bow"
"rough shadewood 1-cam bow"
"rough shadewood 1-cam bow"
"carved shadewood 1-cam bow (hemp)"
"carved shadewood 1-cam bow (hemp)"
"carved shadewood 1-cam bow"
"carved shadewood 1-cam bow"
"carved shadewood 1-cam bow"
"carved shadewood 1-cam bow"
"shaped shadewood 1-cam bow"
"shaped shadewood 1-cam bow"
"shaped shadewood 1-cam bow"
"shaped shadewood 1-cam bow"
"shaped shadewood 1-cam bow"
"shaped shadewood 1-cam bow"
"rough shadewood compound bow"
"rough shadewood compound bow"
"rough shadewood compound bow"
"rough shadewood compound bow"
"rough shadewood compound bow"
"rough shadewood compound bow"
"carved shadewood compound bow"
"carved shadewood compound bow"
"carved shadewood compound bow"
"carved shadewood compound bow"
"carved shadewood compound bow"
"shaped shadewood compound bow"
"shaped shadewood compound bow"
"shaped shadewood compound bow"
"shaped shadewood compound bow"
"shaped shadewood compound bow"
"shaped shadewood compound bow"
"velium vial"
"blank rune"
"loop of the lizard slayer"
"medium quality wolf skin"
"medium quality cat pelt"
"smoker"
"small bowl"
"terrorantula swatch"
"enchanted velium powder"
"lizard blood temper"
"rallic pack"
"quintessence of knowledge"
"damaged hopper hide"
"distilled lizard blood"
"hardened lizard hide"
"a pulsing black vial"
"stormweave swatch"
"nightmare arachnid swatch"
"firesilk swatch"
"earthtwine swatch"
"airsilk swatch"
"watertwine swatch"
"quicksilver"
"ceramic gavel of justice"
"ceramic shackles of torment"
"ceramic hammer of innovation"
"ceramic skull of decay"
"ceramic sword of war"
"ceramic rod of storms"
"ceramic shield of valor"
"ceramic incense burner of ro"
"ceramic water sprinkler of marr"
"ceramic totem of the rathe"
"ceramic totem of xegony"
"lizardscale plate sheet"
"shellacked brontotherium femur"
"shellacked dragon horn"
"odylic vial"
"a cask of double brewed orcish stout"
"Dark Matter"
"Infused Dark Matter"
"Taelosian Tea"
"Taelosian Mountain Tea"
"Discord Stone"
"Taelosian Stone"
"Pale Nihilite"
"Shimmering Nihilite"
"clump of refined taelosian clay"
"Bar of Aligned Steel"
"Bar of Shimmering Steel"
"Preserved Aged Muramite Etched Scales"
"Preserved Muramite Etched Scales"
"taelosian mountain wheat flour"
"stretched kobold leather"
"leathery twine"
"taelosian wheat flour"
"muramite blood distillate"
"sample of filtered highland sludge"
"sample of filtered taelosian sludge"
"clump of refined ancient taelosian clay"
"gloomingdeep rat steak"
"Wayfarer Mug"
"Wayfarer Arrow Shaft"
"Wayfarer Watering Can"
"Wayfarer Vial"
"bracer of concealed blades"
"bracer of concealed blades"
"bracer of concealed blades"
"bracer of concealed blades"
"Fibrous Rope"
"Eight-loop Lasso"
"large butterfly net"
"long net pole"
"phase netting"
"a cask of aldo\'s bitter ale"
"a cask of stonewood ale"
"green body paint"
"a cask of aldo\'s dead frog wine"
"Poor Goblin Disguise"
"giant catfish fillet"
"coif of concealed blades"
"coif of concealed blades"
"boots of concealed blades"
"sleeves of concealed blades"
"pants of concealed blades"
"gloves of concealed blades"
"gloves of concealed blades"
"bite of the ikaav"
"a cask of bee beer"
"drachnid silk swatch"
"drake-spikes"
"drake wing bones"
"silk napkin"
"coarse silk swatch"
"journeyman&#039;s snowborn steel sheet"
"expert&#039;s snowborn steel sheet"
"master&#039;s snowborn steel sheet"
"grandmaster&#039;s snowborn steel sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s dreadguard adamantite sheet"
"expert&#039;s dreadguard adamantite sheet"
"master&#039;s dreadguard adamantite sheet"
"grandmaster&#039;s dreadguard adamantite sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s stormguard brellium sheet"
"expert&#039;s stormguard brellium sheet"
"master&#039;s stormguard brellium sheet"
"grandmaster&#039;s stormguard brellium sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s wealdstone mithril sheet"
"expert&#039;s wealdstone mithril sheet"
"master&#039;s wealdstone mithril sheet"
"Grandmaster&#039;s Wealdstone Mithril Sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s seashine titanium sheet"
"expert&#039;s seashine titanium sheet"
"master&#039;s seashine titanium sheet"
"grandmaster&#039;s seashine titanium sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s protectorate valorite sheet"
"expert&#039;s protectorate valorite sheet"
"Master&#039;s Protectorate Valorite Sheet"
"Grandmaster&#039;s Protectorate Valorite Sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s actuated bronze sheet"
"Expert&#039;s Actuated Bronze Sheet"
"master&#039;s actuated bronze sheet"
"Grandmaster&#039;s Actuated Bronze Sheet"
"Journeyman&#039;s Wayguard Rilsteel Sheet"
"Expert&#039;s Wayguard Rilsteel Sheet"
"master&#039;s wayguard rilsteel sheet"
"Grandmaster&#039;s Wayguard Rilsteel Sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s leatherfoot mercurium sheet"
"expert&#039;s leatherfoot mercurium sheet"
"Master&#039;s Leatherfoot Mercurium Sheet"
"grandmaster&#039;s leatherfoot mercurium sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s moonglade mithril sheet"
"expert&#039;s moonglade mithril sheet"
"master&#039;s moonglade mithril sheet"
"grandmaster&#039;s moonglade mithril sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s sheet of stalwart steel"
"Expert&#039;s Sheet Of Stalwart Steel"
"Master&#039;s Sheet Of Stalwart Steel"
"Grandmaster&#039;s Sheet Of Stalwart Steel"
"Journeyman&#039;s Trooper Skyiron Sheet"
"expert&#039;s trooper skyiron sheet"
"Master&#039;s Trooper Skyiron Sheet"
"Grandmaster&#039;s Trooper Skyiron Sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s warborn adamantite sheet"
"expert&#039;s warborn adamantite sheet"
"master&#039;s warborn adamantite sheet"
"grandmaster&#039;s warborn adamantite sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s nightkeeper iron sheet"
"expert&#039;s nightkeeper iron sheet"
"Master&#039;s Nightkeeper Iron Sheet"
"Grandmaster&#039;s Nightkeeper Iron Sheet"
"journeyman&#039;s khala dun acrylia sheet"
"expert&#039;s khala dun acrylia sheet"
"master&#039;s khala dun acrylia sheet"
"Grandmaster&#039;s Khala Dun Acrylia Sheet"
"backpack"

[Ngreth Thergn]

just raw output.


"silk swatch"

we have had scattered random reports of this one failing.

so it may be that 15 is intended to be no fail, but a slight bug lets one pass from time to time.