Skill-up Calcs

[Flehmen]

G'day,

Just noticed something the other day while skilling up JC. I was making gold malachite bracelets and entered my starting skill of 122 and got the following

Ajusted Skill = 122
Success chance = 64%
Chance of skill up on Success: 39%, on failure: 20.96%, overall 32.51%

Then, a while later the following with my new skill of 135

Ajusted Skill = 135
Success chance = 77%
Chance of skill up on Success: 32.5%, on failure: 17.47%, overall 29.04%

So, with no geerlock, easy difficulty, no AA, INT of 230 and no Alternate stat the calculator predicts(and I just checked it again to get these numbers) that the more successes I have, the worse the the skill-up rate on the same item.

So is this simply a result of the higher skill I have being harder to get the next skill point? Does the chance of skill-up drop that much in the early 100s?

Oww, no wonder I was thinking it started to suck at 120 in all my tradeskills! (Okay, at this level it is still really easy but the difference when you do all 7 at once is kinda pointed. )

I am doing all to about the same point a everynight on Furlitiny, now they are all up to about 140 and I noticed the same burp across all 7 of the skills. That from 120-140 things went a lot harder. In an unusual twist of the RNG the last three points of skill-ups in each skill came in one stack...

Good tradeskilling!

[Twistagain]

So is this simply a result of the higher skill I have being harder to get the next skill point? Does the chance of skill-up drop that much in the early 100s?

Sort of. Pre-175, the old formula is still in effect. What you are seeing is the 2nd check getting more difficult.

At that level, that INT, your chance of passing check 1 with a success is 100%; on a failure, it's 53.75%. Your overall chance is 83.35%.

The 2nd check is simplified to 100-Skill/2. At 122, that's 39%. At 135, it's 32.5%.

So, your overall chances are:
122 - 83.35% * 39% = 32.51%
135 - 83.35% * 32.59% = 29.04%

Edit: BTW, for JC, the Y value I find is 4, not 2. I think the easy difficulty you are using was from the statement in the sticky that JC is "probably" 2, but parses seem to indicate that it is more likely 4.