How Much did 180 to 220 Get WORSE?

[Sklak]

Skilling up Jewelcraft today.
No jewelcraft mastery.
365 WIS
Starting skill: 179
Ending skill: 220
Tradeskill mod: 5% geerlok on all combines.
Roughly 95% overall success rate (didn't track exact success rate, but typically 0-2 failures per stack, all but 1 skillup on trivial recipes post-geerlok).

Total combines required: 996
Total combines expected (old formula): ~760
Increased combines requried post-patch from 179-220: 32% vs. expected average

Looking just at skillup from 190 to 220, 758 combines required, average of 25.3 combines per skillup, old formula would have been about 20.1 combines per skillup expected.

Looking just at 190-220, statistical probability that the old formula would require 758 or more combines to get 30 skillups: 11.3%. (using binomial test at 4.97% chance of success per trial).

Maybe I'm just unlucky... but odds are definitely against the new formula being easier in the 190-220 range. And this is the range expected to benefit the MOST from any formula modification.

Will do another tradeskill in the next day or two for further data (working on Aid Grimel)


Full skillup table (combines required for each skillup)

Gold Topaz (183 Trivial)
5 to 179
6 to 180
4
9
9
Switch to Gold Peridot (186 trivial)
5
41 to 185
2
Switch to Gold Emerald (188 trivial)
1
72
Switch to Gold Opal (191 trivial)
81
3 to 190
42
Switch to Gold Fire Opal (196 trivial)
34
42
34
15 to 195
15
Switch to Gold Sapphire (204 trivial)
21
4
70
12 to 200
19
47
41
45
Switch to Gold Ruby (207 trivial)
54 to 205
27
11
Switch to Platinum Malachite (218 trivial)
18
1
39 to 210
2
59
7
40
12 to 215
6
13
18
Switch to Platinum Lapis Lazuli (220 trivial)
1
9 to 220

[Eggszecutor]

Since the 4/12 patch, I've been working on my tailoring. From 187 to 213, I've been able to do about 1 skill up per 20 combines. A lot better than before (with brewing/baking) when it was about 1 in 40 combines.

[Maevenniia]

did 6 cobines yesterday, 3 of Phase Spider Silks (looted 6 while helping a bard with DN epic 1.5 event), 2 Expert Cultural combines (Tunic and leggings), and one Robe of Impulse....... skilled up from 216 to 219.

[Kaaba]

I've done around 100 combines on my druid who has 188 tailoring, and have yet to get a skillup, they were a variety of combines including feran, murkglider, halfling bags, and around 60 solstice robes.