Grandmaster's Armor Initial Reports

[Tanok]

I still can't believe you succeeded those... I am beginning to think there may be a bug with high skill on blacksmithing... If someone at 242 can hit 81%, including trivial 386 items, but many people are failing the same items at 315 and above, that really worries me... I know most people are still working with really small sample sizes, but if we combine our data we might be able to get a sample size that is worth something... Lets combine our data by each posting our skill/AAs/modifier and success/fail/trivials. I'll start.

300 skill, BSM3, 10% mod (330 skill)

0 success, 3 failures on 386 trivial.

I haven't tried any of the lesser items yet, as I really want to make a breastplate, and am saving up my scales for that. I have like 12 or so scales now, but until I get some more data on success/fail rate, I'm saving them in hopes of getting a 15% modifier...

[Tanok]

Taken from a post in a thread in Blacksmithing Forum:

I got a few Metallic Drake Scales soloing the Drakes in The Acent, non-instance. Have made GM Chestx2, wrist, legs, glove of gowth so far. 1 fail in 5. At that time I was 226+15% Mastery2, Salvage3 with buffed 440str/dex.

So we have someone at 242 modified skill hitting 81%, and someone at 260 modified skill hitting 80% (both of these did some 386 combines). Has anyone at or above 315 hit anywhere near 80%? I'm considering taking off my modifier item and giving these combines a shot... Any statistics for anyone at exactly 300 modified skill?

[tnexus]

Finally succeeded leggings on the 4th try with 345 skill. WOOHOO

[Blayze Meduenin]

Per the calculator you should be 58% with 242 plus 5% and mastery 3.

You have 30/37 successes or about 81%, but this is a small sample set, so you could just have been lucky so far..

how are you calculating that success rate?

from the formula we have for success rate :
Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5 (rounded up, for Trivial>= 68)
Success* = Skill - Trivial + 66 (for Trivial < 68)

gm triv is 386
242+5% is 254
The mastery3 would double your base chance.

therefore success = ((254 - (386*.75)) + 51.5) x2
success = 32%

Am i using mastery 3 wrong and/or from memory getting the modification for it wrong, or has the forumula changed?

[Ngreth Thergn]

mastery does not work on your base success chance.

Mastery works on ajusting your chance at FAILURE (this way the dev's guarantee that mastery will not give you greater than 100% chance to succede)

So instead of ajusting directly the chance to succede what you do is find your chance to FAIL, take the percentage of it that master gives, and then add that to your success, giveing you a higher success.

[forestwench]

WE Master BP at 192

Last Tuesday night, I threw caution to the wind and decided to take my one stack of Shissar scales and attempt the WE Master BP (Cuirass). The BP was the only piece I really wanted, for I am a lvl 64.92% WE druid still wearing an acrylia studded BP.

My Tailoring skill - modified - 192. With only one stack of shissar scales, I knew I only had 6 attempts. On my fifth attempt - success. I almost cried I was so happy.

How does this fit into all the success/fail percentages? Or was I just extremely lucky?

(I am never that lucky)

oh - and no tradeskill AA's

[Tanok]

While you got fairly lucky, your success doesn't really fit into where I think the "bugged" skill / trivial is happening... I'm easily above 95% on the 306 trivial Master's Items, which is to be expected at 330 modified skill. It's the trivials above 350 that are completely whacked out. It seems that above 350 trivial, people with less then 315 skill have a MUCH higher success rate then those above 315 skill. We NEED more data to prove this, but so far that's what it's looking like...

[Tanok]

Oh, and Blayze, Arny said he was at 242 MODIFIED skill when he did those combines for 81% success rate (including 386 items).

[Blayze Meduenin]

Yep Tanok, i was quoting the post that listed a success rate at 242 +5% and BSM 3 though, wondering where my calculations were off as i wasnt getting the same figure.

Thanks Ngreth for pointing out my flaw in calculation )

[Tanok]

OK, I know some of you out there are making GM armor... What kind of success rates are you getting at what skill level? There have only been two pieces of GM armor made on my server, both low skill pieces... Has anyone above 315 skill specifically had any luck with the 386 combines?

[tnexus]

As posted above, I made GM legs on my fourth try with 345 skill. I'm 5 for 5 on tailored GM augs (3 of which are bps or legs)

[Tanok]

So you have only succeeded 25% of your *smithing* combines of 386 trivial items... Very small sample size, sure, but we have several sub 300 people hitting upwards of 80% on these same combines...

[Duradam]

I'm at 300 raw skill, mastery 3, and trophy.

1/1 on GM glove symbol.
1/3 on GM arm symbol.
1/2 on GM arms.

WTB 80% succsess rate!

[Blayze Meduenin]

I think that any potential bug (and from reports its looking like there could be) is not if you get 315+ modified skill but if you get to 300 base skill.

I have a friend with 284 base skill but 15% modifier and bs3 to get to 326 modified who has had a very high success rate, at least 80% but i think more like 90-95%

[Tanok]

Sigh... I wish I could go back to 299 skill then... Keep the data coming guys, if we want to make a case for a possible bug, we need more then 20 combines worth of data...