Skill difficulty implemented?

[Berrew]

I started playing around with baking, brewing and smithing since last Thursday, and noted some skillup irregularities.

I have performed 3 blocks of brewing skillups (Kaladim constitutionals), each of about 30 skilllup attempts, and achieved 1 skillup amongst them (250 to 251). Success rate was as predicted using the calculator, at around 2/3 with geerlok

I have performed 2 blocks of skillup attempts on Misty Thicket Picnics, each of 40 attempts, with no skillups (at 250). Succss rate with geerlok as predicted.

I have performed 2 blocks of skillup attempts on shadowscream armor, each of 60 attempts, and have achieved 6 skillups on each attempt (243 to 256) with an additional skillup in the middle on Farwater plate. Success rates, again, were as predicted with geeerlok. Yeah - I am not in the 1750 club. Being in the 1700 club used to be effectively the same with geerlok .

These attempt blocks alternated between crafts (not as part of an experiment, just because of my normal game flow). I know that this is a tiny sample size, but was wondering if others have experienced unusual patterns while pushing for the new craft caps; maybe this is an indicator, not merely a typical quasi-random pattern of the RNG.

[Boleslav]

I don't see an indicator in your data. A random pattern, by nature, is not consistent. You will see dry spells, then bursts. But over a very large number of observations it will be random.

Boleslav Forgehammer
Paladin of Brell in his 66th Campaign
E'ci – Sacred Desitny

[Silverfish]

Agreed

Boleslav wrote:

"A random pattern, by nature, is not consistent. You will see dry spells, then bursts. But over a very large number of observations it will be random."

I agree with him. I got 251 doing seven picnic attempts to clear bank space, and since then the numbers for skillups have been around what I'm used to. The same skillup estimates I used getting to 250 have held (more or less) true above 250.

Silverfish

[Berrew]

I don't see an indicator in your data. A random pattern, by nature, is not consistent. You will see dry spells, then bursts. But over a very large number of observations it will be random.

Boleslav Forgehammer
Paladin of Brell in his 66th Campaign
E'ci – Sacred Desitny

I am aware of elementary probability theory, Boleslav; I was a number cruncher for a while in RL . I was just intrigued that my bursts happened during the same type of combine. As I mentioned, the sample size is small. Since none of us can perform tests on the scale necessary to determine patterns out of low-probability events (you have a set number of attempts before combines become trivial), the only way to make progress is to attempt to collect data from a wide number of folks, just as you do for most low-probability events in RL, like actuarial data. Personally, I am thrilled that my "success bursts" happened in a more important tradeskill, but was trolling to see if others have experienced a higher-than-predicted skillup rate off of shadowscream, since many will be doing just that right now. If no one answers, or my success rate peters out as the weeks go on, then it is just another random fluctuation.

[Sanadila]

I did 1200 final combines on Misty Thickets and went from 250 to 300. So a little over 20 combines per skill up, which is about what I expected. I did them in runs of 140 or 160, and got, generally, 6 or 7 skillups per run. One run I only got 1 skill up and one run I got over 10.

My next run up will be on Kaladim Constitutionals. I'm still collecting mushrooms for that and will probably do it this weekend. I'll let you know what my numbers were like then.

I know my husband was working on pottery and did over 300 combines and didn't go from 199 to 200 *laughs*. Ohhhh, the language he used!

[Trellium]

I know my husband was working on pottery and did over 300 combines and didn't go from 199 to 200 *laughs*. Ohhhh, the language he used!

I said "Gosh, golly this is a rather unlikeable random number generator", and I calmly tore out the remainder of my hair. Sometimes I really hate tradeskilling.