Success or Failure? Does it really matter?

[A. Benevolence]

I've skimmed over most of the posts here and probably missed it somewhere, but was wondering if a success or a failure would be more likely to result in a skill-up?

I don't know if there is any proof to back up anything anyone will say, but if there is I would greatly appreciate it being posted here. If my assumptions are right and there is no way to find the answer opinions are greatly appreciated.

[Cigarskunk]

Back when we thought that all tradeskills were equal in difficulty (ie/same percent chance to get a skill up) because jewelery and JC had such smooth progression tables, people thought that skilling closer to the trivial, thus having more success, equalled a better chance for a skill up. The reality was that those two trades (at the time) simply had a higher percent chance for a skill increase than others.

Since to the best of my knowledge, no one at VI/Sony has yet to officially confirm that success = better percent chance to skill up, I'm assuming that this is simply one of the many superstitions or tradeskill legends that we cling to.

My troll SK skilled up on brewing and tailoring last night - did both with a 162 INT.

In brewing he simply made fetid essence from an 8 skill to when it maxed out - it actually was taking me more combines to get skill increases as I got closer to trivial and had more success - that's probobly because there's simply a lower percent chance to get a skill increase as difficulty get's higher, but still, at the lower skills I was getting a skill point every other to every third combine with plenty of back to back skill ups.

Same thing happened taking tailoring from 21 to 66.

I hold that the only thing that helps your percent chance to get a skill up is having high INT or WIS (doesn't matter which).

Although, if you'd like to test the theories for yourself, here's an easy one - make two identical toons (race, class, stats, etc). Have one of them skill up to 46 using batwing crunchies. Have the other skill up to 46 using patty melts. If I'm correct, it should take about the same number of patty melt combines as it does batwing crunchies to get to 46. If I'm wrong, there should be a statistically significant difference in the number of combines it takes.

[Craftah]

I thought that one of the tradeskills sessions at the fan fair confirmed (by one of the developers) that you have a better chance of skilling up on a success than a failure.

[Wyrdlan]

I thought that one of the tradeskills sessions at the fan fair confirmed (by one of the developers) that you have a better chance of skilling up on a success than a failure.

Nope, not in public, at least. If you have him drunk on a tape recorder we'd love to hear it though...

Hmmm...

I've been going on the assumption that Success gives you a higher chance of skill-up....

For that reason I've been wearing a Geerlok in my main hand, instead of my int item.

I figure 231 to 235 wont make as much difference as having a higher chance of skill-up.

I know I read that here a few times, that you do have a higher chance on a success....

Anyone know where that assumption came from? I swear another post said it was said specifically at a Fan Faire that it does help.

[Laureana]

The geerlok over the int item has just been the thought that using the geerlock you have more successes which means more money in your pocket to continue attempting and thus giving you more chance for skillup

[Cigarskunk]

For that reason I've been wearing a Geerlok in my main hand, instead of my int item.

I figure 231 to 235 wont make as much difference as having a higher chance of skill-up.

I know I read that here a few times, that you do have a higher chance on a success....

Anyone know where that assumption came from? I swear another post said it was said specifically at a Fan Faire that it does help.

The assumption was posted enough that folks began to take it as fact - to the best of my recolection, there has yet to be a real confirmation of this.

I only use a geerlock when I'm worried about getting success in order to help pay for the tradeskill - when my chanter was skilling on MTPs, she used a geerlock because she wanted success - skill ups were secondary since she's not GMing baking. As my troll is skilling up on that same item to GM, he's maxing his INT for max shot at skill ups.

[Lunefileur]

We have yet to get a confirmation, but the statistics many have posted seem to make a confirmation that you have about twice the chance of skilling up if you succeed than fail.

Nothing official of course, but it becomes somewhat noticable if you are working with high triv items to skill up (i.e. fish rolls or skull ale) You notice slow skillups at first, then more as you get closer to trivial (but not too close since at higher level skills all tradeskills slow down)

[Marteeny]

Bah! I don't buy it.

I have never noticed any difference. As a matter of fact, I noticed at least 5 times between 200-250 in JC, that on the one time out of a stack that I would actually fail the item, I got a skillup.

If you say you are twice as likely to get a skillup on a success than failure, than if you failed once per stack, your chance of skilling up on a failure is only 1/40. by this I mean 1 skillup on failure per 39 skillups on successes.

If that's the case I should have got one and possibly 2 skillups off of failures. I more than doubled that on just the ones I noticed. I may have missed more of them due to the fact that I wasn't watching specifically for them. I just happened to notice those 5, and thought it was funny.

/adds this to the list of superstitions

Marteeny
35 Enchanter
Vazaelle

[PinyonTreedotter]

I did a test for Fletching -- running from 140-179. I kept track of failures and successes and which give the skillups. Afterward, I treated it as a Contingency Table and did a Chi-square. The P values was <drum roll> P=0.06. Not statistically significant, but darn close. I no longer have the data, but I believe it was about 350 combines (before the fletching modification). I have to do the Jewelry to 200, so I'll keep track of that and let ya'll know.

Edit: Missed the zero in the P value.

[Canto Wolfheart]

I tried to get the community to agree how is the right way to test this a while ago. I personally noticed while practicing smithing that a lot of my skillups seemed to be coming from successful combines. I also knew though, that more than half of my combines were successful at that point. I did my best to analyze the numbers. I'm just not a heralded statician

I personally believe very much that skillups have a higher chance of occurring if you are successful. The fact that the number seemed to be twice as likely suggested to me a simple code that gives you an extra roll for skillup, when the combine succeeds. The algorithms that come from the origial stuff tend to be very simple but rather elegant

I may pick up trying to put some hard data behind (or against, I could be wrong) this, but I'm not sure I know a way to test that will actually be 'proof'.

[Liwsa]

The hard thing about trying to prove/disprove skillups coming on success or failures is you have to be combining an item that you have a 50/50 failure rate on, if not and you succeed 75 percent of the time you have a better chance to skillup on a success because you succeed more. I am currently working on Mino hero's brew for brewing and I succeed on about 33 percent and I notice most of my skill checks come on failures.

[Otif]

skillups

Heh,

I actually noticed that skill ups were going faster for me WITHOUT KEI on me. Did 100 Solstice robes with and 100 without.

With my skill raised 2.
Without my skill raised 7. (No enchanter available and I needed to clear inventory space).

Btw my WIS was maxxed at 330 on both sessions as it is my inated, unaltered Wis. The only difference was my Int was lower in the second set.

Personally, this goes against most things I have heard about raising stats. My successes were about the same with 11 and 13 robes made.

Strange, eh?


Otif
250 Pottery, Baking, Jewelcrafting, 244 Tailor, 212 Brewing, 200 Fletching / Smithing

[Kaylya]

If your wis was maxed without KEI then KEI would have no effect, since only your highest skill matters.

[Nairn Niteraven]

Don't think so...

I've never noticed any difference whatsoever, with success or failure. If anything, I notice more skillups on failures than successes, but I really do think it's random.