Grand Master vs AA Mastery

[Dunthor Warsmith]

But (as I understand it), with the exception of combines which are trivial either below 15 or 200 points below your skill, there is no such thing as "no fail." There is always a (small) chance of failure even on trivial 53+ items, and I don't think these AAs would change that, they would just raise the trivials you can attempt with an expected 95% success rate.

It would mean that the AAs would do absolutely nothing for combines trivial ~278 or lower for someone with modified 252 skill, since that's where the success rate starts to go down from 95%.

Of course, that might be perfectly fine for some people. It just seems it would significantly devalue the AAs, because instead of helping at least a little with every combine you do (all the subcombines, the tools, the quests, etc), it only helps with the hard combines, leaving you no different than everyone else for the rest of the spectrum. Going from 95% to 97.5% is small, but its not nothing - going from 2 fail in 40 to 1 fail in 40.

[Aloura]

The mastery AA's definatly don't give you a 95% chance of success with an item that would normally have a 66% chance. Find a recipe of your chosen profession that meets this criteria, and see for yourlself.

[KyrosKrane]

But once you hit 67% then a 50% success increase (67 + 67/2 = 67 + 33 = 100) means no failures. With max 252 skill, a 315 skill combine has a 67% success rate. If the aa truly was +50% success, then Everything under 315 would be no fail.

See, there's the catch. It's not a success increase, it's a failure decrease.

If your chance of success is 67%, your chance to fail is 100-67 = 33%. The crafting masteries reduce your chance to fail by up to half, so 33 / 2 = 16.5%.

So, your total chance to succeed, is your original chance plus the reduction of failure = 67 + 16.5 = 83.5%.

[GigantuousOfPovar]

See, there's the catch. It's not a success increase, it's a failure decrease.

If your chance of success is 67%, your chance to fail is 100-67 = 33%. The crafting masteries reduce your chance to fail by up to half, so 33 / 2 = 16.5%.

So, your total chance to succeed, is your original chance plus the reduction of failure = 67 + 16.5 = 83.5%.

I would agree with this. Also like to add for those who don't understand how RNG works. Add this into the equation and this becomes the following:
Even with 83.5% success ratio you CAN still fail 4 or 5 in a row if you run into a finicky RNG.

Or you could make 5 out of 5 at times. For safety reasons on combines in the past with expert in any skill I had a average failure ratio as an example anywhere from 67% to 90% of all 351 trivial combines.

So lets take mastery of smithing as an example using above formula and statistics if I maxed out AA's in smithing.

So ie. now new average failure rate on trivial 351 on an average would be 50% to 73%.

Salvage is tricky because it could return a flask of water and not the rare ingredient you payed 75k for.

Hope this helps