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Failure rates on Aug. items

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  • Failure rates on Aug. items

    Today did a few attempts on 6 augmentation items. Im at 250 JC (252 with Geerlock) but no AA's on it since im a weezard, but, even knowing failure rate is high i did the attempts. Failed them all. Not a single success. Just a bad roll or is people getting that failure rates?
    250 Fletching, 250 Brewing, 232 Smithing, 250 Jewelry, 236 Pottery, 250 Baking, 232 Tailoring.

  • #2
    Polished, Brilliant, or radiant?

    If brilliant or radiant... probably expected.
    Ngreth Thergn

    Ngreth nice Ogre. Ngreth not eat you. Well.... Ngreth not eat you if you still wiggle!
    Grandmaster Smith 250
    Master Tailor 200
    Ogres not dumb - we not lose entire city to froggies

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    • #3
      Radiant. I was expecting some failures, of course, but 6 from 6 seems a bit high. Im used to 350+ combines, and i know failure rate is big (Those damm EP tailoring and smithing combines :P)
      250 Fletching, 250 Brewing, 232 Smithing, 250 Jewelry, 236 Pottery, 250 Baking, 232 Tailoring.

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      • #4
        failures

        I am 3 for 6 with 250 plus trophy on radiant cuts with flowstones. No JCM since I am a bard. Triv is 351 for radiant cuts, so I think you have been unlucky and I have been very lucky. I would guess 1 for 6 is average.

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        • #5
          According to the caclulator on the main site, you have about a 40% chance to succeed on the radiant cut. You should succeed on 2.4 out of 6 tries, on average (which means you will have good runs, and bad runs, but as the number of tries gets higher and higher, your average rate will be 2.4 successes out of 6 tries.)

          Looks like the RNG claims another victim.




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          • #6
            I have failed 3 of 3 attempts at a radiant cut

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            • #7
              I succeeded my first 3 attempts at radiant cut flowstones, failed the next three, succeeded the next.

              250 skill, plus GM trophy, non enchanter.

              Kemie

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              • #8
                3/3 fails here as well. 250 skill + mod. I guess they really want us going to enchanters with JCM for these.
                Celestya
                66 Druid
                The Rathe
                Expert Artisan (1750 Club Member)
                Chanthira - 245 Tinkertot
                Serenity - 190 Alchemist-in-training

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                • #9
                  Perhaps... but this rate accords well with what happened on combines like the gem-studded chain for the solstice robe. 50-50 chance.

                  Kemie

                  P.S. As a multiple tradeskiller, the worst luck I had on such 50% propositions was in pottery with the star ruby encrusted steins (also triv in 300's). Quite often I would go 12 fails or so on a stack before I had any successes. It all came out statistically in the end, but the fails always seemed to pile up on the front.

                  K.
                  Last edited by Kemie Dreamshadow; 09-28-2004, 05:03 PM. Reason: Added thought

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