Failure rates for Trivial Items

[PinyonTreedotter]

I don't recall where this question came up, but I have kept track of my successes and failures for items where I am very trivial.

Smithing: 180-183 skill
Pottery: 190 skill and used 5% modifier

Acrylia Boning 130 successes, 9 failures, 6% failure rate
Blue Diamond Dust 39 successes, 4 failures, 9% failure rate
Block->Large Brick->Small Brick 68 sucesses, 3 failures, 4% failure rate
Velium Boning 216 successes, 9 failures, 4% failure rate

Total is 25 failures in 478 combines = 5.25% +/- 1.02% failure rate.

Bummer on the blue diamonds ;(

Other than that, very good data, everthing I've seen has supported somewhere around 5% on very trivial items.

[Kaaba]

There is a 5% chance you will fail something very trivial, just like there is a 5% chance you will succeed on something way too hard for you.

just like there is a 5% chance you will succeed on something way too hard for you.

Excuse my french, but thats bullarky.

Please don't spread rumors like that.

Some newbie twink with a 0 skill will buy 20 seals and 20 hammers and try for a trophy.

I went from 0-40 making fish rolls, about 200 combines, no successes... not 1... then I made 1 fishroll, and another bunch of combines still under 5%.

There is definately a point where there is an all but zero chance of success.... I would say 0%, but I don't have the data to support that, because by the time you make 100, you wont be at zero skill.

[PinyonTreedotter]

There is a 5% chance you will fail something very trivial, just like there is a 5% chance you will succeed on something way too hard for you.

This may be true. Or, it may not be.

1) SoE doesn't like to give out information like this.
2) When they do give out information like this, it is often by people who don't know -- and they have had to retract several statements.
3) "Rules" we devise to account for our experience often take on a life of their own -- and anyone questioning them tend to be branded a heretic.

The tradeskills developed in a hodge-podge manner. There has been some effort on SoE's part to unify them, but there are still inconsistencies. Unless we got the programming routines, we will never know (for certain) how the tradeskills are done.

In this case, the data support the supposed 5% level. Although, it also supports a hypothesized 4% failure rate (posted in the Tailoring section). I've run out of space on my index card, so probably won't be adding to these data.

[Wyrdlan]

just like there is a 5% chance you will succeed on something way too hard for you.

Excuse my french, but thats bullarky.

Please don't spread rumors like that.

Some newbie twink with a 0 skill will buy 20 seals and 20 hammers and try for a trophy.

I went from 0-40 making fish rolls, about 200 combines, no successes... not 1... then I made 1 fishroll, and another bunch of combines still under 5%.

There is definately a point where there is an all but zero chance of success.... I would say 0%, but I don't have the data to support that, because by the time you make 100, you wont be at zero skill.

I've personally made Velious Leathers at 100ish skill. Even assuming they trivial AT 250, that leaves me WAY WAY below any 5% chance.

5% chance doesn't mean if you try 20 times you will succeed. It means closer to that if you try 20 million times, you will succeed around a million times. You could fail 19 million times then succeed 1 million times in a row and still have a 5% chance of success, although people wouldn't suspect the dice you are playing with are fair.

The other problem is that you will skill up too many times, as you pointed out. What would be a better test is to make combines until you skill up then reroll the character and try again. Which has been done, more or less.

The 5% chance of success, give or take is fairly rock solid. Your luck just wasn't with you that day.

[Khoren Stonefall]

Hrm. Well, I can't prove it of course, but I used to advise people to make their own solstice robes even with menial tailoring skill and I know it worked for a few of them. I always just assumed the 5% minimum was the way it worked, and was the reason they put minimum skill limits for certain combines (ie. trophies) in the game. Maybe they changed some mechanics though in the same patch that they implemented minimum skill combines. Still, you can't tell anything for sure with just 200 combines. That's the nasty nature of this stupid probability business.

I don't really have a way to prove something like this, because the amount of combines needed to even begin to be accurate would give you a lot of skill in it.

Would anyone be willing to make 200 mino hero brew attempts with a char with 50 int/wis and zero brewing?

Then make another character and repeat just so the skill doesn't get too high?

Repeat for 5 characters so you have a 1000 base, and see if you have 50 mino hero brews.

I think it wouldn't be nearly that much, but thats just based on my own experience, and like I said, not enough data to confirm, because I generally don't try things that much over my abilities.

Also % does play a large roll in it, I've found at 150 skill trying something that is 248 trivial I had a decent rate of success, probably over 20% on mino brews at that level, but being at 50 on a 150 trivial your failing almost every attempt.