Online Skillup Calculator

[Jarak_akn]

It can be under 6% because 1% (SU on fail) is less than 6% if I am reading your write up right. If I am then 72% of the time you have a 6% chance and 28% of the time you have a 1% chance.

So your total chance = ((72 * 6) + (28 * 1))/100 = 4.6% (aprox)

Rechecking ...

Skill = 182, Int = 280, Triv = 215, diff = 3

Sucess = 72.25%
Skill up on Sucess = 88.33%
Skill up on fail = 44.17 %
Test 2 = 9%

Skill up on Sucess (with test2) = 7.95%
Skill up on Fail (with test2) = 3.975%

Total SU Chance = (72.25 * 7.95) + (27.75 * 3.975) = 6.847%

So you have about a 7% chance of skill up total, nearly 8% on sucess and nearly 4% on fails. (Sucesses are almost twice as good as promised by the dev team)

Your chance of skill up on this item will slowly decreace till you hit 205 when you will have a 95 % chance of making it and a 4.31% chance of skill up

Also note that making an almost trivial item will increase your chance of skill up now, but not much. An item trivial at 183 will give you a 7.75% chance of skill up saving you (on average) 2 combine attempts. I.e. hardly worth it especially if the 215 trivial item is easier and cheaper.

HTH

Jarak.

[Suani]

There is something wrong with this calculator. If my stats are the same with or without a geerlok, why would the calculator recommend ditching the geerlok?

My smithing skill is 188. I wanted to look up enchanted velium bits as a skillup path.

Calculator input:
Tradeskill difficulty: 4
Tradeskill level: 188
Stats: 260 (128)
with geerlok: 260 (128)


Results:
for trivial 222: Ditch the geerlok

without gl:
success rate: 73%
per combine: 3.373%
per skillup: 30

with gl:
success rate: 82%
per combine: 2.964%
per skillup: 34

A higher success rate should give me a better skillup rate.

[Iumarex]

This calculator is using the geerlok adjusted Skill Level in the second calculation.

In this thread KyrosKrane posted that this is NOT correct.

I sent a message to the devs to confirm something that's been nagging at me and I just got a reply back.

The skillup formula checks your raw skill; it doesn't take into account any geerloks or other skill modifying items. This is actually a benefit to the player.

Thanks to Absor and Tanker for confirming this.

The formula that is being used here seems to be:

min(190, (skill + geerlok))<ran(200)

but should be

min(190, skill)<ran(200)

The +5 for the geerlok in that calculation incorrectly cuts the skillup chance by a significant amount.

[Ariaya]

Hey all,

Sorry I've been away for a bit ... okay .. let me see if I understand the problems you're finding and the fixes for them ...

1. Success rates use the skill+5 value for geerlock but the skill up rates don't
Okay .. I'll adjust the formula! Wee simpler formula!

2. Something's messed up with the success forumula.
Formula from code: ($skillvalue - ($triv * 0.75) + 51.5) ... I'll see if there's a problem somewhere else ...

I'm kinda stumped on the success rate ... I'll do some more debugging and see what I find ...

[Ariaya]

Okay .. made the changes to the skillup formulas to not include the bonus from the geerlock (yay it looks better)

I changed the ordering of how I calculated the total skillup and it seems to work now.

Judging from the information on the MTP success rate from Rissenn and the follow up from scarbrowed, the success formula seems to be working now as well ...

Let me know what else you find!

[Luitchenstein]

if the second check uses modified skill, which we have all been assuming is true, then it can be harder as you approach 190 to skill up witha geerlok in place. Compare 180 (189 with geerlok). At 180, you have a 10% chance of passing the second test. at 189, you have a 5.5% chance of passing it. So the geerlok almost halves you chance, and rarely will a geerlok double your chance of success, so the net effect (assume it is modified skill in the second check) is to hurt your chances.

Oh, if this is the case I will be soooo disappointed.
I spent a boatload of time farming leather paddings this past weekend for getting my skill to 188. I fell short for the moment at 184. I did all my skilling with a geerlock in place (which doesn't reduce my primary stat). If I could have gotten there by not using it, I am going to kick myself for a week.
No wait, I remember reading something on another forum that said the in-game formula for skill-ups doesn't look at your modified skill level from a geerlock or the like.

I figure based on some other discussions that I need about 80 more combines to get to 188 with a 270 INT....../sigh....160 more silks and 80 more skins.

I believe this is incorrect in the calculator. EDIT: WAS incorrect....thanks Ariaya

[Ariaya]

I believe this is incorrect in the calculator. EDIT: WAS incorrect....thanks Ariaya

NP .. sorry I couldn't respond sooner I hope I've gotten the calculations right now .. I'm *so* not an algebra person

[Kraggie]

Thanks Jarak. It helped seeing someone else do my math. I did everything you did but I was using 9.5% as chance for skillup. That fubar'ed the numbers a little. The confusing part was I was getting 6+% for chance of skillup on success and 1+% for chance of skillup on failure when I did the numbers myself, yet the online calc said my chance was ~6%. 6+1=6? But when you use 9% instead of 9.5% the numbers come out right. Thanks for going behind me and redoing them.

Formula I'm seeing for 2nd check is rand(200) >= min(190, skill). In my case that's rand(200) >= 182. Which means if random returns 182-200 I get a skillup. According to my fingers and toes that's 19/200 chances = 9.5%. So did you use 9% because you rounded 9.5%. I'm sure that .5% makes a huge deal to all of the rest of you. Sorry I'm such a math nerd.

[Ariaya]

My math's gotta be wrong, or maybe I'm just missing some rounding. Here's what I've got:

Skill: Tinkering (chose Medium-3)
Skill level: 182
Trivial of recipe: 215
Int: 280.

-- snip evil math --

Needless to say with a 6~% chance of skillup on success and a 1+% chance on failure, I don't see how my "Skillup Chance per combine" can be under 6.

Where am I messing up?

With the now fixed formulas .. your skillup chance is over 6%

BTW .. my calculator doesn't round anything until it displays it.

Tradeskill Difficulty: Medium - 3
Your Tradeskill Level: 183
Your Stats: Primary: 280
Your Stats with geerlock: Primary: 280

For a Recipie with trivial of 215:

Without Geerlock:
Success Rate: 73%
Skillup Chance per combine: 6.504%
Est. Combines per skillup: 15

With Geerlock:
Success Rate: 82%
Skillup Chance per combine: 6.848%
Est. Combines per skillup: 15

[Kraggie]

So based on the information that Check 2 does not use Geerlock modified skill, there's no reason to NOT use a Geerlock now, right? Which means you may want to edit the HTML and get rid of the messages about whether or not to keep it. Seeing as the Check 2 skill is your base unmodified skill, having a geerlock equipped doesn't hurt anything (unless it lowers your base stats). All it does is increase your original chance of success. It should not lower your chance of skill-up.

My mind's so frazzled trying to soak up all this info.

[Ariaya]

So based on the information that Check 2 does not use Geerlock modified skill, there's no reason to NOT use a Geerlock now, right? Which means you may want to edit the HTML and get rid of the messages about whether or not to keep it. Seeing as the Check 2 skill is your base unmodified skill, having a geerlock equipped doesn't hurt anything (unless it lowers your base stats). All it does is increase your original chance of success. It should not lower your chance of skill-up.

My mind's so frazzled trying to soak up all this info.

The only time where it's really in question is when equipping the geerlok makes you un-equip some peice of equipment that has int or wis on it (whatever your primary stat is) and thereby, theoretically, you may not want to equip the geerlock.

However ... the chances of that are pretty slim considering how much benifit the geerlock is when the skillup equation doesn't take it into account ...

[Isembold]

Greetings, I have been trying to work out the math in this equation in order create a spreadsheet that would allow me to do these calculations multiple times at once. This way I’ll be able to solve for (approximately) how many combines it will take to go from a starting skill to reach a set trivial. I seem to be getting lost in the middle somewhere. I am using both online calculators, which are great for 1 computation at a time, for reference.

Here is what I am doing:

I enter my current skill in the first column A, the (adjusted) stat being used (Wisdom for example) in the second column B, and the trivial I am trying to reach in the 3rd column C.

The forth column is the computation for the pass/fail percentage and the results I get match the online calculators. I am using =MIN((A3-(C3*0.75)+51.5),95). Note that this is obviously on row 3 of my spreadsheet (Hence A3 and C3). This becomes D3.

I place the skill difficulty in column E.

Columns F and G are the computation for the 1st skill up check if I succeed or fail the combine. I am using =(B3*10/(E3*1)) for F (succeed) and =(B3*10)/(E3*2) for G (fail).

Column H is the computation for the overall chance of passing the 1st skill check. I use =((F3*(D3/100))+(G3*((100-D3)/100))). Noting here that D3 is a number between 1 and 100 and need to be divided by 100 to make a percentage.

At this point I have a number that is likely to be in the hundreds and I can’t figure out how to get to the final percentage. I know there is a second step but I haven’t been able get any tests I am running to come back with close to what the online calculators both tell me I should be at.

Here is the data I am testing with:
I am doing tailoring so the difficulty level E3 is 3
My current skill A3 is 162.
My current stat B3 is (235-15) = 220.
My target trivial is 167.
So my Success rate should be 88.25 %
Chance to pass 1st check on success is 733 (out of 1000 for 73%??)
Chance to pass 1st check on fail is 366 (out of 1000 for 36%??)
Chance to pass 1st check overall is 620 (62%??)

The online calculators tell me I should eventually have a 13% chance to skill up at this point. I cant figure out how to write the rest of equations for the spreadsheet to get to this point.

I know the second check should be =((Min(A3,190))/200) but I am not sure how to apply this.

Can someone help me out? Where do I go from here?

EDIT: fixed formulae for second check, should have been the min not the max.

[Isembold]

Ugh, 2 days of banging my head and 5 minutes to figure it out after I post. My formula for the second check was incorrect. It should have been =((200-(Min(A3,190)))/200) which gives a higher chance to skill up with a lower skill. I had it backwards.

Ok, so from above column I now becomes =((200-(Max(A3,190)))/200)
Column J is =(H3/1000)*I3 which is the overall percentage to get a skill up.
And K is =1/J3 which is the number of combines I need to get 1 skill up.

Copy all rows down setting A4 = A3+1 till column A = column C and add sums to bottom of Column K.