GM trophies when do I have a chance?

[Eggborn]

At what skill level does a tradeskiller have a half decent chance at success at these?

I am 250 baking--will try
213 smith
213 brew
212 fletch

I have 5% geerlocks for them all.

222 good, or wait till like 230?
or no way.. wait till 250?

thanks for help

[GraemeFaelban]

You have your best chance at 240 skill or higher with a geerlock. Any lower, and the success rate goes down.

[Itek]

Originally posted by GraemeFaelban
You have your best chance at 240 skill or higher with a geerlock. Any lower, and the success rate goes down.

/agree

Max success rates come from a modified 252 skill or better. (The presumption, and lots of experiments, point to "max effective skill" being 252.)

But that's not -exactly- what you were looking for I think.

I gather you are asking "what are my chances at given skill levels?"

Skill 1 (or even 0) has a, presumed, minimum success of 5%. I doubt you want to set fire to large sums of plat so that's -probably- well below your desired success range.

Average success rates for trophies hover around 40 - 50 percent at the 252 skill level.

The "success formula" that we all use as a good rule of thumb is

success% = 51.5 + skill level - (0.75 * trivial level)

Working backwards

40 = 51.5 + 252 - (263.5) for trivial = 351.3

So if we set "trophy trivial level" = 350 we get

6 = 51.5 + skill - 262.5 then the skill required for getting 6 percent success is 217.

so ...
skill <=216 = 5%
217 = 6%
227 = 16%
237 = 26%
247 = 36%
252 = 41%

ROUGHLY. This is an ESTIMATE. Please do NOT get 245 effective skill (my estimate 34% success level) make 3 attempts and get mad if you don't get a trophy.

Hope that answers your question. But again, I agree with the first reply, your BEST bet is to max your effective skill. Unless.

1) You have giant PILES of money to burn and the casino is down.

or

2) Your doing smithing / tailoring or some-such and it's actually CHEAPER to burn 4 or 5 trophy attempts than raise the last 20 points of skill.