{Incorrect information} about success rates?

[Cedir]

Everybody knows that you fail (or did?) no less than 5% of the time, no matter how trivial a combine is. There was a patch message a while back that indicated this restriction had been removed.

I still fail, consistently, 5% of the time on trivial combines.

Was this patch message an outright lie? If not, who benefits from this? Do you have to have 250 skill before it takes effect?

{Edit - I changed the subject line to be less inflamitory in the message listing. ~Lothay}

[OberonMiM]

not a lie the stuff just has to be VERY trivial.

Take for instance blessed dust of tunare. Out of several batches i did after that patch i averaged 195/200 successes (or 2.5% fail)

also

i have NEVER failed a velium stud or metal bit since that patch and i do mean NEVER (and i did ALOT of combines going up to 250 tailoring from them)

[Sariss]

Well, I don't know if we've truly discovered the new formula, but I remember reading a post from a player on test who had worked with the GM's there on this topic. What s/he stated was that once you have a skill 100 points above an item triv it was never fail. I haven't seen if that is indeed for sure yet, but that was the range of skill levels that was effected. I don't know that it was a scaling effect or not, 100 may just be the magic number.

[Sariss]

Argh! Post-Stolen by an inkie! That's what I get for making my lunch before I finish posting!

[Cedir]

My smith, with 160-180 skill, continued to fail on folded sheets while making fine steel... *after* the patch.

[Boleslav]

I remember reading that any combine with a trivial 200 points or more below your skill is no-fail. It would seem to make sense that combines between the old 95% success mark and 200 points under trivial would be on a sliding scale resulting in fewer failures until the 200 point no-fail level is achieved.

Boleslav Forgehammer
Paladin of Brell in his 65th Campaign
E'ci - Sacred Destiny

[Maesembra]

There are a few variables to consider. First of all, if the fail rate before the patch was above 5% the odds probably didn't change much, if at all. There does seem to be a 'magic number' below which you cannot fail on an item. With a skill at over 200 smithing I have yet to fail on a combine of metal bits, metal rings or folded sheets of metal since the patch. Combine rates for items between those levels do seem to have been reduced (within the vagaracies of the RNG). For example, when doing skill ups from 205 to 213 using shadowscream it took me 103 tries to make the 100 humming orbs I needed for the final combines, which is a significantly better rate than I was getting before the patch. Overall on subcombines I'm finding I have a 98% or better success ratio on pretty much everything I try. On the other hand, making an ornate gold tunic for a twink, I failed 3 times in a row before getting a success (I didn't fail at all on any of the other ornate gold pieces). So the RNG is still there, can still get you, but things are a lot better overall than they used to be. (I realize my samples are too small to be statistically accurate, but I'm definately seeing a trend here).

[Balkin]

Anything that's 200+ points trivial is now no fail.

Other combines between 100 and 199 points trivial are on a sliding scale from the old 5% minimum fail rate, down to 1%.

Anything less than 100 points trivial maintain their previous 5% fail rate.

Or so I seem to recall. Could be off a little bit, but that's the general idea.

[Thicket Tundrabog]

My failure rate on some trivial combines has been zero since the patch when the changes were made. Other trivial combines fail less that 5%. I particularly notice this when doing multi-stage subcombines involving blue diamonds for wood-elf cultural tailoring. Since it is a three-combine process, I used to lose 15% of the blue diamonds before the final tailoring combine. Now I lose about 1 out of 40 blue diamonds (2.5%).

Thicket

[Calabar]

I too have noticed a significant reduction on the failure rate of sub-combines. I would thank any and/or all the gods of Norrath, but as a Vah Shir shaman I’m agnostic. Though I’m extremely happy with the change, the theory that all trivial combines 200 points below your skill are now no fail is not accurate. My brewing skill is 250. If the no fail theory were correct then I would never fail on any combine with a trivial of 50 or below. I brewed 160 heady kiola last weekend for some tailoring combines. The trivial for heady kiola is 46. I should not have failed on any of the combines. But about half way through I failed one and got the message that I lacked the skill to create this item. It was the only failure I had out of the 160 combines, but it proves that there is at least a small chance at failure for combines at that level.

Whatever the actual formula, its still a vast improvement over how combines used to work. So I’m one very happy kitty.

[Hobbun]

With a brewing skill of 200, I have made numerous Heady Kiolas(triv 46). Into the thousands, actually. Before the patch for every 100 kiolas, I was failing 3-7 times. After the patch, I might fail once, twice if I have a real bad run.

Hobbun
Druid of Karana
45th Season

[Moonlilly]

Originally posted by OberonMiM
i have NEVER failed a velium stud or metal bit since that patch and i do mean NEVER (and i did ALOT of combines going up to 250 tailoring from them)

I've noticed that too. Makes my tailoring much cheaper.

[Reflan]

Heh, I thought this thread would be about people lying about the number of skill ups needed per point for some reason -- that kind of success.

Guess because my rate of almost 43 combines per skill up in smithing was so frustrating with my wisdom up to 325, when so many people reported getting 17-20 combines per skill up so consistently that it seemed like the norm.

Especially since I didn't get anywhere near that kind of skill up rate in baking or pottery or brewing either, I always kind of wondered if a lot of people laid it on a little thick when recounting their victories.

[Aethia]

*** edited ** I re-read what I wrote and made no sense given the original statement.

I need more caffeine before I post in the morning

[Myrron]

Originally posted by Calabar
If the no fail theory were correct then I would never fail on any combine with a trivial of 50 or below. I brewed 160 heady kiola last weekend for some tailoring combines. The trivial for heady kiola is 46. I should not have failed on any of the combines. But about half way through I failed one and got the message that I lacked the skill to create this item. It was the only failure I had out of the 160 combines, but it proves that there is at least a small chance at failure for combines at that level.

The patch message that came out when this new trivial success system did never once mentioned anything would be no-fail. It also never said things would be the same 100 points above a trivial and then slide during the next 100 points. The 200 points above trivial = no-fail is just speculation from what a GM supposedly said on the test server, if Calabar is correct in what he says then apparently the 200 point no-fail idea was scrapped (or somehow glitched for Calabar).

The point is all we know is that at some point over trivial, supposedly we should see less than 5% failures. We have no official word on how far above we need to be, and no official word (in writing) that anything ever becomes no-fail.

Personally I still see a 5% fail rate on almost everything I do. I have yet to fail some very trivial tailoring recipes (tailoring is my highest skill at 222), but then I haven't made much padding lately either. I do still fail on studs on occasion, but that has seemed to improve some.

--Myrron