Recent Failure Rates

[Thistlebane]

Honestly, I do understand about runs of bad luck, but it seems recently that failure rates are much worse than normal. I am kind of suprised to have seen nothing on these boards about it, except for the JCM post in the JC forum. I thought at first it was just JCM, but asking around, it appears that everyone is having problems.

The tradeskillers in our guild have basically stopped making things because the failure rates on high end items are so bad lately (talking PoP items and Elemental Planes items here).

Is anyone else experiencing much higher failure rates than normal? Is it just normal due to the way they changed the failures to reflect the trivial rates? Is there other info on this already that I missed?

[Veril]

I have a sneaking suspicion that modifier items are broken as well as the masteries.

I failed a bunch of tae ew combines, took off my 15% gloves and tried some more using my native 250 skill and succeeded on a bunch.

[TheGiantOne]

Did great using just my 250 base skill and trophy also. Heard that people at 240 using geerlok modifiers are having problems though.

[Albur Bitterman]

Have to agree

In the last week I've had a long streak of bad luck.

Before the 8/26 patch (and 8/27 move of Bristlebane) I was 62 in 65 for leatherfoot haversacks.

Since then: 3 in 7 :-(

My jeweler friend with max skill and JCM3 failed his fist combine of Emblem of Earth for me.

I was 3/3 on PoEarth silk gear, and after the patch I'm 0/2 (OK, this one could easily be chance, but still)

Although this could just be the RNG kicking me around, I'd like to hear others thoughts.

-Albur Bitterman (Bristlebane)

[scarbrowed]

I just made 3 HAversacks in a row today with a tailoring skill of 194. That combine at least seemsto be doing fine.

[Albur Bitterman]

Problem maybe with bonuses? (again, if at all)

I tried my haversacks without any modifier (just 250 base skill) and did 2/2. I'll see about more when I get more tempers made.

If there is a problem, and not just a few people vacationing in the seedy side of the bell curve, perhaps it is with trophies or such.

Albur Bitterman
Storm Warden of Karana
Bristlebane Server

[Teedyo]

My experience today for what it's worth..not much, too small of a sample.

Doing Class 2 bone point arrows..Triv 68; skill 164

With geerlock; 15% failure 3/20 1st,12th,19th combines.
Without geerlock; 100% success 20/20.

Just listed which combines failed to show that it was apparantly random, iow, not a streak of 3 in a row. Yeah, I know; 3 in a row can still be random but, a streak is always a streak.

[Taushar]

This is one of questions I intend to ask at the fan faire Q&A session. I hope to have answer after the faire.

Taushar

[Ndaara]

With geerlok, I went 1/3 on acrylia plate greaves 2 days ago, which shocked me as i normally have very close to 100% success rate on them. I forgot to equip my geerlok last night when making more, and succeeded 2/2 BP's and 4/4 greaves. This is with 224 smithing, not yet trivial.

Then again... we have scares of bad runs like this after every patch and everyone thinks there's something wrong, i just chalked it up to my usual bad luck when i'm low on components or doing combines for my own use

[Iumiena]

I have noticed no bad streaks of failure

so far tons of solstice robes at 219 skill (**** sucesses)
3 for 3 earrings from PoTactics
1 for 1 ring of gallantry
4 for 4 tempest robe (250 triv for those that don't know, at 251 modified skill)
4 for 5 gem studded chain (broke my 40 no failure streak, oh well)

a bunch of other stuff from pottery, baking, fletching and brewing, and nothing seems out of the ordinary

I think this is one big conspiracy theory

[Carmaris]

My last batch of Kaladim Constitutionals (I do 160 combines at a time) was my worst ever. I'm usually on the plus side of 50% (250 + trophy), but this last time I was at 44%. Half way through (after 80 combines) I was close to 33%--I unequipped my trophy on a whim (who needs that +2 modifier anyhow :P) and that's when my luck began to turn.

However, this was a week or so before the 8/26 patch.

[Sam DeathWalker]

Ouch

Ya I am very mad, I fail on 3 bloodmetal earrings in a row - like 40,000pp of stuffs down the drain. I have the 18AA JC mastery and 250 and the eyeglass (also cast intellectual superiority, the cha increase spell and voq - don't know if it helps but). Prior to the patch I was like 10/10 on pop combines. Also failing a lot on BD combines (BD bracer).

I'm done making combines for awhile untill this matter is sorted out. There is no doubt something is wrong.

[Moraganth]

http://mboards.eqtraders.com/upload/...threadid=10201 is what they have on the JCM problem atm.. looks like it's already been found, just a question if we have to wait for a month for it to be fixed.

Conversly, i went 2 for 3 on earth emblems....

As for other skill high end items... i went 2 for 4 on earthweave attempts.... certainly not large enough to show a trend, but i've heard success rates of 25% on these, so i'm happy.

[ChanterCrafter]

High failures occuring

Ok I can also report unusually high failure rates with various skills, especially with jc.

I have 250 skill + jcm aa level 3, plus jc trophy.

In the past, I have done over time 1000's of gem studded chains for people in my guild trying to skillup tailoring making solstice robes.

Typically I do them in total runs of 100 for each person when things are slow and dump them on mules etc.

Results were usually very good: maximum 5 failures per 100, sometimes 0 failures.

However, as of two weeks ago, I began experiencing 30-40 failures per 100 combines. Same stats on me, same equipment, same skill...drastically different results.

This pattern has occurred with the last 500 combines of the gem studded chains.

I have noticed a similar higher failure rate making high end tailoring and smithing items. However, I do such combines less often...that data is not as convincing as my JC data.

My belief is the as of two patches ago, something changed in the game that is causing tradeskill modifiers to malfunction or simply not register.

I believe this would apply to Jc Mastery AA modifiers, gearlocks, and trophies.

In addition, our guild fletcher has reported more failures as well, and she combines many planar bows for our guild.

I spoke with a game guide who let me know guides have received a flood of reports about JCM not working anymore, with failures occurring at a higher rate than normal...consistently.

But as I said, my theory is the error is not just with JC, but with all tradeskill modifiers.

As I do tradeskill items frequently, I hope to get more info on this matter and hopefully get it corrected.

--Maob
65 Chanter, Luclin

[Ortrillian]

Yah huge failure rates lately for me and a guildy. We do most of the PoP TS combines for our guild and they have sucked lately, seems like after a patch it went bad. He failed 2 different smithing items over 4 times each and had to stop trying when we ran out of components. I've been failing on PoP tailoring horridly. Had a wonderful run for a while only failed 2 out of 6 or something like that then failed 5 times in a row and ran out of components again. Yes we both are 250 in our skills.