Results may vary

[andaerice]

Re: Re: Results may vary

I see that the biggest rant in all of this is that the zero skillups in 200 combines is actually a common in-game occurance, even though there should only be a 1-in-1000 chance of it actually happening. Have I seen this run? Yes. (patty melts) Have I known people to get this run? Yes, several. A friend this week took 360 jewelcraft combines to get a skillup (roughly 1-in-200,000 chance of that).

There are 8,500 registered members on this forum. If the chance of a run of 200 without skillups is only 1-in-1000, wouldn't there have only ever been 9 reports of this? That's assuming that they all reported it.

[Xenephex]

Thanks for all the replies, everyone.

Qaladar, that hitstreak calculator is great. It won't work for everything, but it is useful for most of the stuff we've been talking about. I've bookmarked it.

I see that the biggest rant in all of this is that the zero skillups in 200 combines is actually a common in-game occurance, even though there should only be a 1-in-1000 chance of it actually happening.

It's 1 in 1,000 for getting zero skill-ups in a given, selected run of 200 attempts. Over 1,000 attempts, however, the chance of having a run of 200 is 1 in 32 (per Qaladar's post).

The point of this wasn't to try to prove or disprove the accuracy of the RNG, or to bombard the site with a bunch of new statistics. It's just so that the next time someone makes a claim about the RNG based on a limited number of combines, it will be possible to say, "there's a 1 in n chance of that happening".

[atonic]

Therefore it is statistically possible to do 58,000,000 combines without receiving a skill increase.

If it's streaky, it isn't random.

[Erisea]

I think you'll find that if it *isn't* streaky, it isn't random.

[kiztent]

Re: Re: Re: Results may vary

Originally posted by andaerice
There are 8,500 registered members on this forum. If the chance of a run of 200 without skillups is only 1-in-1000, wouldn't there have only ever been 9 reports of this? That's assuming that they all reported it.

Assuming you only did one tradeskill past 180 and only 1 skill point past it, sure. Thing is, there's 70 points past 180, each of which is equally likely to yield a 200 combines without a skill up skill point. That would yield, on average, 595 runs on this board. And of course, if the average tradeskill has, say, 2 tradeskills at 250, the average number of reported 200 combines runs is now 1190.

Or, to put it in perspective, every 1750 club member has done 490 potential hell points. That is, skill ups with skill 180 or above. Which gives them a 39 percent chance to have seen a 200+ run without a skill up (1 - .999^490). Just ONE PERSON.

[Ehre]

My head hurts.

Reading through this thread has taught me one thing:

I'll never complain about the RNG again.

[Xenephex]

There you go. I think we've found the answer:

If you complain about the RNG, we will pelt you with math.

[Aethia]

Excellent analysis

I think I agree - I have a headache

But an excellent analysis -- currently working on GM pottery, and due to the fact that steins don't stack I haven't done a run of 200 (in one sitting).

But I have gone for streaks (less than 100 thank goodness) without a skillup. Yet my average so far has been 1 skillup for every 23 attempts.

Having done MTP at 191 -> 250, I'll take that rate. Of course MTPs stacked which made it easier to do attempts of 200 at a time.

Here's hoping to a good string of luck when I return from vacation and camp the pottery wheel