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Newbie Question on Chance of Success (did not see in FAQ)

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  • #1

    Newbie Question on Chance of Success (did not see in FAQ)

    If this is elsewhere, I apologize. I am a fletching newbie and a relative EQ newbie as well. I've been diligently making arrows and have my Fletching skill up to about 45. I'm curious how one can approximate the probability of a successful combine given one's skill and the trivial in question.

    I'm well aware that simply having skill greater than the trivial does not guarantee success.

    What I am not aware of, however, is if I can tell that at skill=45, the chance of success on something with a 56 trivial is approx. XX%, versus something with a 128 trivial being approx. YY%.

    Is there a good resource on this? Is there a known answer or at least ballpark estimate?

    Thanks for you help,

    Andy, HRE (playing Guiscard on E'Ci)
    Andyhre playing Guiscard, 78th-level Ranger, E`ci (Tunare)
    Master Artisan (2100 Club), Wielder of the Fully Functional Artisan's Charm, Proud carrier of the 8th shawl


    with occasion to call upon Gnomedeguerre, 16th-level Wizard, Master Tinker, E`ci (Tunare)


    and in shouting range of Vassl Ofguiscard, 73rd-level Enchanter, GM Jewelcrafter, E`ci (Tunare)
    Tags: None
  • #2
    The true equation that verant uses is shrouded in mystery (ie they haven't told us). But, some people have diligently collected success/failure rates for different items at different skills and have come up with a close approximation. See http://mboards.eqtraders.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=39 for the equation.
    -- Mewkus: 2100 dings on the server formerly known as Solusek Ro
    try: Inventory/Flags/Spells tracker program - (sample output)

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    • #3
      Thank you very much.

      Based on this, I made a very simple excel sheet that allows folks to enter the two parameters (your skill level, the item's trivial) and get the chance of success. If someone emails me at aschwarz@lecg.com, I can email it for someone to post at some accessible site. Obviously, the formula is not rocket science, but for folks who might find the math tricky, I offer it up.
      Andyhre playing Guiscard, 78th-level Ranger, E`ci (Tunare)
      Master Artisan (2100 Club), Wielder of the Fully Functional Artisan's Charm, Proud carrier of the 8th shawl


      with occasion to call upon Gnomedeguerre, 16th-level Wizard, Master Tinker, E`ci (Tunare)


      and in shouting range of Vassl Ofguiscard, 73rd-level Enchanter, GM Jewelcrafter, E`ci (Tunare)

      Comment

      • #4
        If you want a ballpark estimate, here's one...

        The maximum chance of success is 95%. This is known. As a rough estimate, when you are just at the trivial level for a given item, you'll fail about 10% of the time, and by the time you get 10-20 points over the trivial level, you'll be at the minimum 5% failure.

        It's just an estimate based on experiences, but it's not a bad guide.
        Osprey
        Deceiver
        Luclin Server

        Comment

        • #5
          Im not sure if Gumkak's Jewel site is appropriate for all tradeskills but I would assume it is. Based on his spreadsheet, with which I highly agree, I would say you could use it for all other skill levels. His web address it:
          http://www.valendor.org/gumkak/jewelcraft.asp
          Lorthien Leonides
          Cavalier of Tunare
          Fennin Ro

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