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**wyntyr** · 04-30-2004, 01:11 PM

I would be interested in knowing what you used to parse out your results. I have 0 fletching skill and will likely run it up to the 180's soon for the Shawl Quest.

**mysharona** · 04-30-2004, 03:28 PM

Theres no real reason to try to calculate the difficulty of a trade until your skill is above 190. 190-250 is one big sample space. In the lower levels skillups are so trivial that you dont get a good sample size for each skillup level. Looking at your data until skill 185 your average sample per skillup was probably 6 attempts. Way to small in my opinion. calculate it again when you get to 250 using data from 190 and up.
(also make sure when you look at your logs that you determine the skillup on a success or fail by timestamp. the skillup message comes before a success, but after a failure. it can be confusing)
(i.e
[Wed Apr 28 19:01:35 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:01:35 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (200)

[Wed Apr 28 19:14:16 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (201)
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:16 2004] You have fashioned the items together to create something new!)

The formula for skillups above 190 can be used because it stays the same you just need the data from skilling up. and compare it to the skillup % for difficulty 2, 3, 4.

You have 2 formulas, one for failure skillups, another for success skillups
For fletching with Dex = 305
N=(S*10)/(Y*F)

Check 1 difficulty 3
success check 1 => (305*10)/(3*1) = 1016. Check 1 is 100%
failure check 1 => (305*10)/(3*2) = 508. Check 1 is 50.8%

Check 1 difficulty 4
success check 1 => (305*10)/(4*1) = 762.5. Check 1 is 76.25%
failure check 1 => (305*10)/(4*2) = 381. Check 1 is 38.12%

Check 2 for skill above 190 is always 5%
1 - (190/200) = .05 or 5%

Sooo.
Difficulty 3
1.00*.05 = .05 or 5% skillups on successes.
.508*.05 = .0254 or 2.54% skillups on failures.

Difficulty 4
.7625*.05 = .038 or 3.8% skillups on successes.
.3812*.05 = .019 or 1.9% skillups on failures.
---------------------------------------------------

Now lets look at my data for fletching.
Dex was 305 the entire time.

If the Difficulty factor was 3, I would skillup at
5% on successes.
2.54% on failures

If the Difficulty factor was 4, I would skillup at
3.8% on successes
1.9% on failures

no real reason to do calculations under skill 190, since the formula stays the same from 190 - 250

Heres my data
(note no data for skillup 211, 212, 236)

SK = Skillup
F = failures in this skillup
C = total attempted combines for this skillup
S = Successes in this skillup

* means achieved the skillup on a failed combine
(_ used underscores for formating)

_SK F _C _S
203 1 15 14
204 0 19 19
205 5 67 62
206 2 31 29 *
207 0 15 15
208 5 94 89
209 0 4 4
210 7 85 78

213 2 23 21
214 2 33 31
215 1 8 7
216 5 35 30
217 0 8 8
218 0 6 6
219 2 35 33
220 2 36 34
221 8 106 98
222 0 2 2
223 1 25 24
224 0 29 29
225 1 15 14
226 0 3 3
227 5 47 42
228 2 21 19
229 0 12 12
230 0 9 9
231 2 14 12
232 3 52 49
233 0 4 4
234 0 2 2
235 1 22 21

237 53 86 33
238 21 28 7 *
239 _4 10 6 *
240 31 49 18
241 36 73 37
242 67 106 39 *
243 _0 1 1
244 13 21 8
245 _1 3 2 *
246 32 55 23 *
247 26 42 16
248 _2 11 9
249 _3 9 6
250 _5 6 1 *
----------------

So
Total tried combines 1377
Successes 1026
Failures 351
Skillup on success = 38
Skillup on failure = 7

Success Skillup% 38/1026=.0370 or 3.7%
Failure Skillup% 7/351=.0199 or 1.99%

these percentage rates look just like a difficulty factor 4

**Jarak_akn** · 05-04-2004, 03:41 AM

Originally posted by wyntyr

I would be interested in knowing what you used to parse out your results. I have 0 fletching skill and will likely run it up to the 180's soon for the Shawl Quest.

I jiggered and pokered a lot in Excel.
In the end it porbably would have been as easy to go through manually counting :-P

You can parse the data quite easy as there are only a few key words that you need to search / grep for. The hard bit is connecting the lines that go together and adding up all the data.

Jarak.

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