Blessed Faydark Thunderbolt - Success Rates

[racquet13]

I'm a 191 Fletcher at this time of writing, and I plan on working my way to 202 sometime tomorrow. I'll then be farming Acrylia and Condensed Shadow for skill-ups. At some point however, I'd like to start making BFTs to fund this operation and rather than farm the materials myself (for the skill-up arrows), I'll be buying it in the Bazaar with the money earned from selling the bows.

I'm just wondering what kind of success rates the 252 modified people see on these bows. What would be a good level to start making them? I think I would be okay with a 50% success rate. It seems like the only hard-to-get item for it is the Planar Oak, which I don't mind foraging myself.

EDIT: When talking about the only hard-to-get item, I forgot about the Blue Diamond.

[Osprey]

Max skill fletchers see a 50% success rate on these bows. That doesn't account for intermediate-product failures.

Based on some backwards calculations I did using all the great work people did on the success rate formulas, it's an ok approximation to figure that each point of skill you drop below the trivial level lowers your odds of success by about 1%. That's an approximation but it's an ok rule-of-thumb.

So I don't think you'll find BFT's to be a good thing to try any time soon.

As for blue diamonds, they're common as dirt now - they drop in the planes all the time and are frequently on vendors or in the bazaar. Much easier to get than when the BFT first came to town.