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**zandorian** · 06-16-2003, 10:10 AM

nice

My skill is 189 atm and am going 100+ combines per skill up for 185-189, with wis at 180 ( wish i had your luck

**Mahlig** · 06-16-2003, 10:49 AM

What this data does is help to support the "more apt to skill up on a success" belief. You got 11 skillups on failures and 53 on successes. Although this is still a LSS, it is certainly indicative of what was generally thought (and a GM once told me personally). Good stuff. Oh yeah, Grats!

**zandorian** · 06-16-2003, 01:02 PM

humm

Guess it was pay back time 8) went from 189-198 on 140 combines today

**Gryfalia** · 06-17-2003, 09:23 AM

Er, how does this back up the theory that you are more likely to skill up on a success? Notice at the end how rare his failures are. That's because he is approaching trivial. Plus we know that once you get past the 'el crapo' spot in skill levels, you get skill ups more, which is also when things start to become closer to trivial.

It proves, well, nothing.

Gryfalia

**Lupoman** · 06-17-2003, 09:28 AM

It proves, well, nothing.

i think it proves you fail less the closer to trivial u are. Thats something right? 8)

**Tinile** · 06-17-2003, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Lupoman

i think it proves you fail less the closer to trivial u are. Thats something right? 8)

Nope, no one ever disagreed that point. :P

**Mahlig** · 06-17-2003, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by Gryfalia

Er, how does this back up the theory that you are more likely to skill up on a success? Notice at the end how rare his failures are. That's because he is approaching trivial. Plus we know that once you get past the 'el crapo' spot in skill levels, you get skill ups more, which is also when things start to become closer to trivial.

It proves, well, nothing.

Strangely, through the first 30 skill ups, he gets 66% on a success (he was successful apprx. 66% of the time too). At skill 185, he was 51/53 on his success rate. Not a lot higher perentages out there at ANY skill level. At any point (after 16 attempts, I believe he was 50/50 or thereabouts), it is noticable that he got more skillups on successes.

As far as prove (I never said anything about prove), the only thing that is proven is that you can fail at any point on any skill. Note, on skillup to 248, it was a failure. Data proves that he got more skillups on his success. Data proves he had more successes than failures. His 83% skillup on success over his 78% success rate is indicative of the propensity to skillup on success. Whether you choose to acknowledge that or not is of little concern. It merely shows that you are confusing "prove" with "indicate". And that, by your statement, is proven. :P

**Gryfalia** · 06-17-2003, 02:59 PM

Pithy commentary, yes.

But you knew full well I was talking about 'proving, or even indicating, anything to do with having a better chance to skill up on a success'.

Which was comfortably not supported, proven, or indicated by the data..;-)

Indeed, you make this statement:

Strangely, through the first 30 skill ups, he gets 66% on a success (he was successful apprx. 66% of the time too).

Which lends credance to 'no connection at all', then say this:

At any point (after 16 attempts, I believe he was 50/50 or thereabouts), it is noticable that he got more skillups on successes.

In which you seem to indicate that somehow taking a look at smaller increments ('At any point'), which is precisely the wrong theory, but I think you know that...hehe.

Having just hit 221 myself (on a success, for the record), I can say that I wish I could fail MORE just to stop having so much booze which, as a dorf, I can't simply destroy in good conscience. Alcohol Tolerance up to 195. URP.

Gryfalia

**ozyer81** · 06-18-2003, 09:30 AM

Just the facts....

He failed 310 out of 1400 combines:
310/1400 = 22.143%

He got 11 of his 64 skill ups on failures:
11/64 = 17.189%

I don't know what this really proves, personally I think that the percentages are close enough to be inconclusive where as the standard deviation is large enough where the percentages over a larger sample than 1400 combines could be nearly identical, or possibly the difference would be larger.

There is nothing proved from this example IMO. However, being a master of every tradeskill in the game my gut tells me that not only does it make more sense, but it seems to hold true that skill ups are more likely on successes. However, this may hold true because of another axiom that tradeskillers live by, combine things for skill up that are as close to your triv lvl as possible.

I really have no clue honestly, just wanted to spew out some facts for u fine people.

~Ozyer

**Lling** · 06-18-2003, 09:54 AM

This is my most hateful tradeskill. Gods above, it just FEELS slow. Maybe it is the 9 items for the minotaur hero's brew versus my current 4 items for my rockhopper masks.

I averaged about 10 skill-ups on about 240 combines (from 136 to 194) in brewing, versus tailoring, where I get at least one point and usually 2-3 points per 20 combines.

My hands hurt.

**Caleborus** · 06-23-2003, 08:17 AM

What would really help is a database of skillup data, so that some of the theories floating around could be analyzed. My own belief is that skill raises are a function of difference in trivial skill to current (modified) skill and stats (WIS/INT, for example), and not related to success or failure on the attempt itself. This is from my experience in GM'ing 2 skills (Smithing & Brewing) and getting up to 200 on everything else (except Tailoring (>&lt

193 atm).

And what would really help THAT is if VI started reporting the same information to the tradeskiller that they do to grouped party-mates. Currently, there are 2 ways we can gather useful statistics:

1. Painfully, by parsing logs and knowing that you (for example) attempted mino brews ONLY during your run, or were religious in recording combine changes, or..

2. Grouping with a "stats" mule, and combining the success/failure log entries with your own skill-up log.

btw, Lling, I envy your skill-up rate on tailoring (1/6 or so, reported above). What's your current skill? I've been doing Solstice Robes for a little bit from 187 - 193, and my skill-up rate is disappointing thus far - around 240 combines for those 6 skill-ups.

Cal (Erollisi Marr)

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Data from 185 - 248

Data from 185 - 248

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