The case for MTPs

[GremlinClr]

You know, not everyone wants to powerskill their baking or any other traderskill in sittings of 200 combines or more. I know I sure didn't.

I went from 208 to 248 on MTPs. Took me about 1400 combines all in 200 combine batches. In no way do I consider big batches in MTPs "powerskilling". Since each subcombine makes 10 or more items for the finished combine, its so easy to do big batches to me it seems like a waste to do all that running around and gathering ingredients for just 20 combines.

[kiztent]

I did HMP to trivial then I did PoP meats to 242. If you're mining merchants the meats will pile up.

I suppose if you want to skill up right away, farming brownies is no big deal, but it's pretty easy to get to max mod with minimal MTP.

I think MTP are the devil for skill ups anyway, especially in the low 200s.

[andaerice]

I have to agree with Beriberi...

I started pies at 202 after truffles... I rarely failed with Halas pies. I put the Halas pies on my bazaar mule and prices at 3pp each.

I had the same experience. I did truffles to 202 (seems that every forager in PC had stacks of mushrooms), then with 202 + geerlok, I hardly ever failed the HMP combine. I also got (and still get) 3-5pp per pie.

While Itek seems intent on this 2.2kpp figure, this number would only come from not only not selling the pies back to even merchants, but by dropping them on the ground or destroying them.

At a minimum, the pies should sell at bazaar for breakeven cost, making 202-226 cost zero. Others like myself and Beriberi have easily made thousands of plat profit from HMP.

I can't guess at my total profit from HMP, but it has been enough to buy a full suit of mithril, solstice earring, velium jewelry, a corking device (3k at the time) and leaving 6k in the bank so far.

I must agree that HMP are a complete PITA with the subcombines, but keeping meats stocked in the bank I can do the combines in Shadowhaven when my satchels run out get a skillup or two and continue selling.

[eriadoc]

Question -- After reading this thread, I decided to try MTP. At 202 baking, using a Geerlok, I did 60 final combine attempts, failed 53 times, and got zero skill-ups. The skill-ups are exactly what I expected (0 in 60 attempts seems typical). The 53 failures is what I could not tolerate. With HMP, I can and do sell the pies, supply guildmates, alts, and anyone that I like. Not to mention, as a SHM, they are just as good as MTP, as far as I am concerned. As a wizard, I like MTP, but for the money, I can buy them until I trivial HMP. My question is ... is 10% success rate at 202 normal? I have since gotten to 204 doing HMP.

As to the number of sub-combines, I don't really see much of a difference. I haven't sat down and counted out each combine, but it's easier (for me) to sit down for one session, make a ton of creamy fennel sauce, and then on another session, grab my stacks of meat from the bank. I don't find wolf meat or mammoth meat hard to come by at all. As for dough, I am still using the basilisk eggs I obtained a year ago when I was doing cakes.

[Tinile]

yes MTP has high failure rate. I believe the average at 250 is 50% success. If you don't mind HMPs, do them. They do sell well. I personally dislike them, but to each his own.

[Alenna]

There is any easy solution to the problem with "running around to make the misty thickets" I do them mulestyle, because the shared bank slots have made it easy. My guild has a high affinity for sending me naked to my point point (PoK) naked during raids. If it's a situation where I know it will be a few minutes til I clicked it, I head to the bank and get my Bag o MTP Supplies (tins, spoon, some components). I generally have a good idea with components I am low on, so I hit the vendors and crank out 5-6 stacks of whatever piece. Drop into shared slots for my mule and you are done.

[Itek]

The best estimate of MTP trivial is 355. (it's known to be above 318, and probably below 365, and SOE has a penchant for 255 and 355 as staple numbers.)

success = Skill + 51.5 - (355 * .75)

success = 202 + 51.5 - (266.25)

success = 253.5 - 266.25

success = 12.75 (about 1 in 8)

60 / 8 = 7.5 estimated successes at 202 skill

Dang... you got almost EXACTLY the expectation. Wonder of wonders.

(sarcasm... please take note of the SARCASM in my voice)

Itek wanders away to go look for the post where he said "you MUST do MTP" and threatened to shoot anyone who disagreed with him.

I'm a forager.
I fish in the planes.
I hunt in JaggedPine.
I'm a shaman.
My guilds tanks constantly request HMP.

Do we really have to put "Your mileage may vary" at the bottom of every post? Or "IM-NS-HO" ??

[Taraddar]

Originally posted by Itek
The best estimate of MTP trivial is 355. (it's known to be above 318

How is it known to be above 318? There's no possible way to actually test any trivial above 250 that I know of.

[Tinile]

by plugging in the approximate success rate into the formula you can find out an estimated trivial over 250. simple math

[Taraddar]

Yes I know you can make guesses based on success rate but since you can't get over 250 skill you can't KNOW anything other than that the trivial is greater than 250.

[Tinile]

that is why the exact quote used above states "the best ESTIMATE of MTP trivial".

The formula that is generally accepted to give approximate chance of success on a combine is:

Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5

If you have a success rate on MTPs at 50% (made up number, but it's around there), then you can manipulate the formula to find out the estimated trivial.

50 = 250 - 0.75 * ? + 51.5
subtract 51.5 off each side to get
-1.5 = 250 - 0.75 * ?
take off the 250
-251.5 = -0.75 * ?
divide by -0.75
335.3333333 = ?

[Taraddar]

Originally posted by Tinile
that is why the exact quote used above states "the best ESTIMATE of MTP trivial".

Check the part in () again as I quoted he said

it's KNOWN to be above 318

All I asked is how he knows that.

[Cigarskunk]

LOL - you could have saved yourself alot of time, research and combines by just looking for any of my old posts on the subject - I've already laid out all of your "discoveries" months ago.

[Itek]

Tara-

Easy

5 = 192 + 51.5 - (X *.75)

-238.5 = - (X *.75)

318 = X

With a skill of 192 getting the 5 percent MINIMUM SUCCESS RATE for 200+ combines pretty much establishes that the trivial for MTP is AT LEAST 318.

Then taking a reported 30 percent success at 252 effective gives...

30 = 252 + 51.5 - (Y *.75)

Y = 365

X (minimum KNOWN trivial) <= trivial <= Y (lowest reported success rate at 252 effective skill)

318 <= trivial <= 365

It's notable that most people report 40-50 precent success at 252 with geerlok/spoon.

40 percent would equate EXACTLY to 355 for an estimated trivial.

All you have to do to DISPROVE the experimentally proven 318 minimum is to do a run of 400 or so MTP with a success rate of 6 percent or higher at a skill of 190 or less.

Since the "formula" says the success rate would be Negative 25 percent at 190 if the trivial is 355 one can reasonably expect that until roughly 210-220 you won't see more than minimum success.

To my knowledge no one has posted higher than minimum success below 210, nor has anyone posted less than 30 percent or more than 50 percent at 252 effective.

I don't know how else to explain it.

318 < trivial < 365

355 is a "target number" for a lot of SOE stuff. (used to be 255, then they decided bytes are cheap)

We could probably do this with smithing stuff too. But I don't see a lot of smiths in a huge hurry to do 200+ combines of non-trivial 252+ combines.

Yes, 355 is an estimate. But I -know- that it's AT LEAST 318 from personal experience.

Turning in "old planar armor" in PoK for gems works. It SEEMS to favor "rare" gems, and to give more diamonds/blue diamonds than jacinth/black sapphire. But I -know- that it's possible to get non-rare gems. Since I have gotten one Peridot and one Blue Diamond from 2 turn ins. But proving experimentally which of the 5 is more common... would take resources I just don't have. Baking and brewing are relatively easy to come up with the resources to extensively test to nail down close estimates of "true" trivials of 250+ combines.

YNKAIMNSHOYMMFV.

That's my new sig line.

If you have a PROBLEM with me please PM me. The very next person to harp on me for STYLE of posting I'm taking to the mods.

Also, I checked again today.

Bristlebane Bazaar prices (yours probably varies and I don't give a rat's whisker)

MTP:
273 for 7p
40 for 8p
413 for 14p 5g
10 for 30p

HMP:
200+ for 2p
several vendors at 3p
50 for 50p

100 MTP at 5 percent yields 20 picnics.
100pp for 20 making them yourself
140pp for 20 buying them at lowest price

550pp for 100 HMP attempts
65 percent average success at 191
sell them all at 2pp
780pp - 550pp = 230pp

you can make 2.3pp an attempt for HMP
you can make .4pp an attempt for MTP

There is more farming, more clicking, and larger buy in and larger inventory requirements to make HMP vs. MTP.

I'm still looking for when I put a gun to peoples heads and said "do MTP or else" ....

Cheaper I said. It is.
Easier to farm I said. It is.
Faster to combine I said. It is.
Works for non-foragers/trackers better I said. It is.

In the other thread I explained better that even if you ONLY used your own successes FOR YOURSELF it was cheaper than buying the picnics in the bazaar.

Have I been unclear in some respect?

If all you want is 250 skill in baking and / or a cheap supply of MTPs for yourself.... the smartest (in my opinion) way is just to concentrate on MTPs.

[Maevenniia]

Mae: “Itek…what is that….no, no (backs away)”…put the gun down now, I’ll make MTPs, I promise!”

Itek (disgruntled): “It’s too late for that. I’ve had it! You people are driving me nuts.”<twitch>

Mae (panicked): “Nooooooooooooooooooooo!”













Itek pulls the trigger: SQUIRT!

Mae licks the purple juice off her face: “What is that, Jum Jum?”

Itek: “What else?”