I'm at 191 baking (will buy a geerlok). I managed to get my hands on 7 hobgoblin meat. I'm therefore interested in knowing the success rate people have had, since I'd like my characters to get beginner's magic manuals.
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Success rate on hobgoblin surprise?
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Welp, I attemped 5 when I was 215 with geerlock. I did 3 on one occasion and 2 on another for some friends. I failed all 5.
Could have been a streak of bad luck, not sure. I just happened to get my hands on another 40 meats. I am at 219 now, not sure if I will go for broke or get a few more points first. Good luck 
~Autty[c]Autumnwyld Crescendo
~ Virtuoso ~
Shiobahn Fyrestrike
~ Channeler ~
** Grandmaster Baker **
* Master Brewer * Potter * Jewler *
* Fletcher * Smith * Fisher *[/c]
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gobo
I had the same amount as you, but I was at 197 without geerlock, but I was fully buffed. I made three out of the seven.
Crysina
202 Fletching
184 Smithing
Deedlith
197 Baking
157 Tailoring
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At 223 or so, I made 2 for 2.
At 227 + Geerlok, I made 3 of 4.
Lucky me?
-LiloshVenerable Noishpa Taltos , Planar Druid, Educated Halfling, and GM Baker.
President and Founder of the Loudmouthed Sarcastic Halflings Society
Also, Smalltim
So take the fact of having a dirty mind as proof that you are world-savvy; it's not a flaw, it's an asset, if nothing else, it's a defense - Sanna

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I was 22/32 on them tonight. Have 250 baking and ~236wisdom hehe =)Feoni [Ytrilynth's Horde]
1750 club
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7 successes out of 13 attempts at 250 skill with spoon. 53% success rate.
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hobgobs at 192 baking
My baking skill is currently at 192, just next door to your 191. I had a stack of 17 hobgoblin meat and decided to try for one success for a manual. Cooked the stack and made 5 in 17. I did not have my baking geerlok active.
Curufin the Enchanter
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