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Based on the info from the general tradeskills forum, we now have the formula for getting skillups as well as the previously established success formula.
Although the practical/aesthetic merits of the two main skillup routes for GM baking are still quite disputed, we can now compute how many *final* combines of each you'd need to reach trivial for HMP (226), as well as how many additional MTPs you'd need to reach 250.
The key unknown, which can hopefully be established by folks here, is whether baking is an "easy", "medium", or "hard" skill to raise. Skillups have to pass two checks. One is skill-based and bottoms out at a fixed 5% for skills of 190+; this implies that to go from 190-250 in any tradeskill requires an absolute minimum of 1200 combines.
The other check depends on your stats, whether the given attempt succeeded or failed, and how difficult the tradeskill is. Your odds are reduced by up to a factor of two if the given attempt failed relative to if it succeeded. I've picked three WIS/INT cases:
165; 255; 305
If baking is easy, the odds of a skillup from 190-250 per attempt are
165 W/I: 3.75% (success), 1.88%(fail)
255 W/I: 5% (success), 3% (fail)
305 W/I: 5% (success), 3.63% (fail)
If baking is medium, the odds of a skillup are
165 W/I: 2.5% (success), 1.25%(fail)
255 W/I: 4% (success), 2% (fail)
305 W/I: 5% (success), 3.63% (fail)
If baking is hard, the odds of a skillup are
165 W/I: 1.88% (success), 0.94%(fail)
255 W/I: 3% (success), 1.5% (fail)
305 W/I: 3.63% (success), 1.81% (fail)
Given this, the total number of attempts you need to make (on average) to gain a skill point depends on how likely to succeed you are, your stats, and the difficulty of the tradeskill.
Applied to baking:
Assume a 255 wisdom or int. The number of Halas Meat Pies (triv 226) attempts you need to make to skillup from 191-226 on average is
778 (if easy), avg 21/point
985 (if medium), avg 27/point
1299 (if hard), avg 36/point
(no geerlok, etc.)
By comparison, the number of MTPs you need to make is
1088 (if easy), avg 31/point
1580 (if medium), avg 45/point
2107 (if hard), avg 60/point
It would be handy if we could take success percentages from actual data to figure out whether baking is "medium" or "hard"; based on my own data with a 255 Wis druid it certainly doesn't look like it fits the "easy" set of percentages - I'm running in the 50-70 range of attempts/skillup for MTPs at 191-197 skill.
If you go from 226 to 250 using MTPs, the additional number you'll need is
640 (easy), 873 (medium), and 1164 (hard) at 255 Wis/Int with no geerlok.
This is fewer because your attempts are more likely to succeed, and failed combines are less likely to give you skillups.
At the medium and hard level you could cut the number of attempts by 20% if you got a 305 stat, which isn't actually that big of a bonus given the points you have to expend to do it (IMO).
Hope this is helpful...
Aaneras. druid of the 48th season
Fennin Ro
Although the practical/aesthetic merits of the two main skillup routes for GM baking are still quite disputed, we can now compute how many *final* combines of each you'd need to reach trivial for HMP (226), as well as how many additional MTPs you'd need to reach 250.
The key unknown, which can hopefully be established by folks here, is whether baking is an "easy", "medium", or "hard" skill to raise. Skillups have to pass two checks. One is skill-based and bottoms out at a fixed 5% for skills of 190+; this implies that to go from 190-250 in any tradeskill requires an absolute minimum of 1200 combines.
The other check depends on your stats, whether the given attempt succeeded or failed, and how difficult the tradeskill is. Your odds are reduced by up to a factor of two if the given attempt failed relative to if it succeeded. I've picked three WIS/INT cases:
165; 255; 305
If baking is easy, the odds of a skillup from 190-250 per attempt are
165 W/I: 3.75% (success), 1.88%(fail)
255 W/I: 5% (success), 3% (fail)
305 W/I: 5% (success), 3.63% (fail)
If baking is medium, the odds of a skillup are
165 W/I: 2.5% (success), 1.25%(fail)
255 W/I: 4% (success), 2% (fail)
305 W/I: 5% (success), 3.63% (fail)
If baking is hard, the odds of a skillup are
165 W/I: 1.88% (success), 0.94%(fail)
255 W/I: 3% (success), 1.5% (fail)
305 W/I: 3.63% (success), 1.81% (fail)
Given this, the total number of attempts you need to make (on average) to gain a skill point depends on how likely to succeed you are, your stats, and the difficulty of the tradeskill.
Applied to baking:
Assume a 255 wisdom or int. The number of Halas Meat Pies (triv 226) attempts you need to make to skillup from 191-226 on average is
778 (if easy), avg 21/point
985 (if medium), avg 27/point
1299 (if hard), avg 36/point
(no geerlok, etc.)
By comparison, the number of MTPs you need to make is
1088 (if easy), avg 31/point
1580 (if medium), avg 45/point
2107 (if hard), avg 60/point
It would be handy if we could take success percentages from actual data to figure out whether baking is "medium" or "hard"; based on my own data with a 255 Wis druid it certainly doesn't look like it fits the "easy" set of percentages - I'm running in the 50-70 range of attempts/skillup for MTPs at 191-197 skill.
If you go from 226 to 250 using MTPs, the additional number you'll need is
640 (easy), 873 (medium), and 1164 (hard) at 255 Wis/Int with no geerlok.
This is fewer because your attempts are more likely to succeed, and failed combines are less likely to give you skillups.
At the medium and hard level you could cut the number of attempts by 20% if you got a 305 stat, which isn't actually that big of a bonus given the points you have to expend to do it (IMO).
Hope this is helpful...
Aaneras. druid of the 48th season
Fennin Ro
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