Should I do larger skill up runs ?

[Tarelna Prexus]

I have worked my baking skill up to 200's without any great problems but now I've hit a brick wall at 211.

I'm now at my 335th attempt without a skill up. Thats 5 batches of 60 MTP's and 35 HMP combines.

I only make enough for 60 combines at a time, so all these attempts have taken place over a week.


My question is should I be aiming to do larger batches, say a 100, to give the RNG more chance to land on the skill up result ? or does it not matter whether I do small combine runs.

I've already done another skill to 250 and never had such a gap between skill ups. I know it shouldn't matter as each attempt has just the same percentage chance to skill up as any other but we all know how 'streaky' this can be in EQ. ( example went from 205-208 in 20 combines )

For the record I have maxed wisdom for my level of 255.

Tarelna

[eqNichola]

I don't think we've ever been presented with hard evidence that larger runs give a better skill up rate overall; indeed, the idea itself conflicts with the 'standard model' that each attempt is simply a check of a random number against a fixed proportion.

So it shouldn't make any difference.

HOWEVER that said, there's another aspect, which was pointed out to me when I first started doing very-hard (ie 50% success rate at max skill) combines to make stuff to sell. I would painstakingly gather all the components for one attempt, then often see the whole x hours' work go to nothing in one click, which was kinda dispiriting. Someone suggested that if I gathered components for say 4-5 attempts before clicking the very-hard combines, I would increase my chances of getting *any success at all* in *that particular session*. And of course, getting success is what makes us happy.

Similarly, doing a bigger run won't increase the chance of any *single* combine giving a skillup; but doing (say) 300 combines in a single run greatly increases the chance of getting AT LEAST ONE skillup in that run, and that will make you feel better

In short, larger runs won't increase your skillups per combine ratio; but they WILL increase your skillups per session.

[MartanioKotiz]

My opinion

From what I have done with tradeskills it best to do as many combines in a row for skill ups. As stated before your more likely to get one skill up. When I did Bakeing I did 200 combines of HMP's then anther 200 and got a total of 12 skill ups. But I did a set of 400 straight and got 20 skill ups. I would suggest building large supply so you won't be putting all your hope in one combine. :-) Cursed smithing!! lol

[Lanalia]

I've never really noticed a difference in doing a few combines or 200 in terms of skillups. I've done combines of 4 boar chops and gotten two skillups, and I've done 60 combines of MTPs without one skillup.

It's all a matter of the RNG. However, I like to do a lot of combines at once, because I like to see more than one skillup in a single session.

[Renjah]

Ive done runs of 100 bows and not got a skill up then I made a single nightmare bow for a friend and BANG skill up. I think with larger runs you see more skill ups simply because you do more combines. It all washes out in the end. If you do 1 set of 100 combines or 10 sets of 10 combines you should see the same amount of skill ups given a large enough sampling.

[QuteCleric]

From a probability standpoint, if you take into account that the RNG is random and at skill level X with wis/int modifier Y you have the probability p to get a skill up then you basically see this:

You have a certain number of trials(the number of combines you do) that are independent of one another and that probability supposedly stays the same per combine until you skill up..... this is a geometric probability distribution.... in which case you are looking for the first successful combine, by successful here I mean that you get a skill up.... Now, presumably from a probability standpoint, for most geometric probability distributions of this nature, the chance that your first skill up will occur before a certain number of trials(or combines in this case) increases as that number increases.... In other words, consider doing 60 combines, the chance that your first skill up will occur on or before the 60th combine is some number.... on the other hand, the chance that it will occur on or before the 100th combine is that probability plus the probability that it will occur between 61st and 100th combines and is, therefore greater. Presumably, whenever you stop and rest or stop doing combines you can look at it from a certain perspective, are you picking up with the same series of trials? or are you starting a whole new set of trials? Probability dictates that under this circumstance, since you have not yet gained that first success(skill up) you are merely continuing that same set of trials...

In short... it doesn't matter how many you do at one time, the chance of you skilling up on or before X combines is the same, regardless.

Qutie!

[Ziela]

I like to have at least several stacks if possible ready to combine even if I don't plan on doing that many, just in case the RNG is treating me well. For example, I did 2 stacks at 208 in pottery and got 4 skill-ups. Since I'd been averaging 2 stacks per point I was pretty excited Figured might as well see how long it lasts, grabbed some more supplies and got to 216 in another 30 combines (since then of course I've done ~80 opal steins with nothing but after that run I can't complain ) Whenever you hit a wall with baking, brewing etc. just think, at least it's not tailoring! At least I always find that cheers me right up.

[eniamn]

i do mtp runs of 200. leave open the mixing bowl and when you finish your stack of whatever make another stack of them and start over. i brew ll my beer and make baskets for 200 before hand though. also, at least once you should be bitten by the rng and this time it took a chunk from you. sorry.