Rediculous Trivials

[Railina]

More fun with math -- at 5% success rate, you would have to do ~58 combines to have a 95% chance of at least one success.

For example, lets say you want a hateful honed blade of the ykesha. If you have 0 smithing skill, you can buy 20 (on average) Shortswords of the Ykesha for about 20k and you'll on average have 1 success. OR you can get to 252 skill which will cost you 400k making mistletoe cutting sicles, or spend months mining shadowscream and get your skill to 252. At that point you'll need to buy roughly 12 Shortswords of the Ykesha to get 1 success. You've saved 8k, but look what you had to do to make that savings.

Trivial 350 % chance = (252 - (350*.75)) + 51.5 = 41% OMG (i.e. BD cultural armors)

About 10 tries at 5% success rate gives the same 40% success rate that 252 skill does. We've already established that 58 tries are required to get a 95% chance of (at least one) success at 5% raw success rate. . .

6 attempts gives a 252 skill smith a 96% success rate.

so, to get a 95% chance of at least one success, a 252 skill smith has to spend 52k less than a 0 skill smith. In addition, a 252 skill smith has a 41% chance to succeed each and every time, meaning he has a 0.5% chance of getting 6 consecutive successes, a 65% chance to get 3 successes, and a 79% chance to get 2 successes in 6 combines
While, in six combines, the 0 skill smith only has a 26% chance of getting even one success a 9.75% chance of getting 3 successes, and a 15% chance of getting 2. At 0 skill the chances of getting 6 successes in six combines are .0000015%. . . a 252 skill smith is Thirty-two THOUSAND times more likely to succeed all 6 combines.

[Cigarskunk]

Re: Trivials and such

Its an interesting question. Has anyone experimented with this? I might try that soon with a 0 skill smith and banded (110 skill).

Back when Misty Thicket Picnic were selling for a few hundred plat each, my chanter skilled from 150ish to 191 on them and my average was ten success per ten stacks of combines overall - sometimes I'd get no success for three stacks then three successes and two successes on the next two stacks - all said though, I pretty much always had two stacks of MTPs after a 200 combine run during those times.

[feressa]

To be fair, the original poster had a point when he talked about just brute-forcing the combine for the ykesha sword. The problem comes when you can't get the components to do this. The ingredients needed for most PoP smithing are extremely rare, for instance. You'd have to farm the relelvant mobs for months to get enough for 20 combines for a PoP plate BP, and even then you aren't guaranteed a success by any means.

[Railina]

To be fair, the original poster had a point when he talked about just brute-forcing the combine for the ykesha sword

About 10 tries at 5% success rate gives the same 40% success rate that 252 skill does. We've already established that 58 tries are required to get a 95% chance of (at least one) success at 5% raw success rate. . .
6 attempts gives a 252 skill smith a 96% success rate.

Brute forcing a combine works if you only need one of something with easy to acquire components, however the difference in materials here is equal to ~5 times the realistic price of a success by the 252 skill smith.
(all reworked weapons require 2 celestial tempers and 2 blocks of acrylia as well as the original weapon, and 10k is about average for any 2 sheet item.)

[Jascenta]

There is actually some good points made in this thread. I am not sure about you tho but my success rates seem a lot highier then what you mention.

At 218 with a 15% mod I was making blessed armor 6/6. Tae ew shield 2/2. This is with 246 modified skill. Now with 234 + 15% mod I go 16/20 for sickles if I am lucky. The worst I have come out was 13/20 so far. I don't see anything wrong with the success rate on older items

However, I have no desire to smithing anything in pop. Items are not farmable with out a raid force, even if you do manage to farm some stuff it would take a few weeks of farming to get enough for 1 combine which as I have heard the fail rate is much greater.

As for the tae ew stuff... You can camp ct for 3-4 hours and get like 20 blood drops in the right place. The reason the items are going for so little is because the blood is mad common.

I do think something needs to be done with the pop trade skills, but as to what needs to change... I can not say.

[Graal the Dorf]

Couple of things:

The minimum failure rate is lower than 5%, it is about 3%. This from a coworker who made tens of thousands of combines of a very trivial item. I would also guess the minimum success rate is lower than 5%. If the minimum success rate is 3%, then a 0 skill smith would have a 54% chance of a successful combine within 20 attempts.

Secondly, the difficulty of an item is not necessarily the same as the trivial. The difficulty of an item is a seperate characteristic. If Sony wanted to, they could make an item that trivials at 1 skill that had a 10% success rate at 252 skill.

[Velurian]

Secondly, the difficulty of an item is not necessarily the same as the trivial. The difficulty of an item is a seperate characteristic. If Sony wanted to, they could make an item that trivials at 1 skill that had a 10% success rate at 252 skill.

While I'm not denying that they could do this, there's no evidence that they ever have. The relationship between trivial levels and difficulty is pretty consistent, except for a couple of recipes that are actually thought to be bugged. (JC combines with Star Rose Quartz, for example.) There's no reason for Sony to make these things any more complex than they need to be.

[Quesci]

The minimum failure rate is lower than 5%, it is about 3%.

There have been lots of reports of trivials failing slightly lower than 5%--my own experience with jewelcrafting showed it at 4.6%, and others reported failures 1-250 being as low as 4.3%. I've never heard anyone say 3%.

If you are right about them being able to set variable difficulty levels on items, I'd go so far as to say that the specific item of which your friend make 10,000 was one such item with a modified fail rate. The 5% number is just too well-documented.

[Graal the Dorf]

My coworker just got back from vacation so I was able to ask him for more information. The minimum failure rate is apparently ~3.1%. This was from millions of combines, not 10k.

This guy wrote a macro program and the total number of combines apparently comes from many different people who used that same program. I would imagine they were mostly combines of arrows, but I dont' know.

[Delfontes]

Ewwww....

So you got that statistic from the use of an exploit? It was marketing research for a PP making Macro?

Millions of combines....

Did I just actually read that???

/mourn fairplay and EULA.