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  • A tale of two skills...

    Ok... I'm down to working on Tailoring and Smithing as my last two skills to max. Probably not a shock to anyone that those are the two I have left, but that's not the reason for the primal scream.

    For tailoring, I'm doing the DE cultural, and farming mass quantities of silk out of PoN. No fail to make the silk into a swatch, triv 180 to turn the swatch into the cultural swatch. I've made right at 750 duskwoven swatches now, and have failed that particular combine 19 times, for a failure rate of 2.5%. Just a little below what the calculator says I should. Note, I have no tailoring mod item whatsoever and my skill is currently 295.

    Smithing... Making MCS. The three items have subcombines of 180, 182, and 183. I have now attempted 600 sickles. I have failed the subcombines for the hilt/pommel/blade 62 times total, which means I've done those combines 662 times. That's a failure rate of over 10%. And this is while wearing 15% gauntlets which boosts my skill well over 300.

    Do those bloody subcombines have a built-in higher failure rate then normal? I can understand bad and good RNG runs, but 662 attempts should have smoothed that curve mostly out by now. And it's not like I fail a lot, then go long stretches in between failing one. I make em in batches of 10, and I fail a subcombine virtually every time on all three parts. It's *really* starting to annoy me. In fact. I'm failing the final sickle combine less then those. 600 attempts has yielded 561 sickles, for a final combine fail rate of 6.5%
    - Sinc
    Poison 300 + GM Seal, Pottery 300, JC 300 + Trophy, Fletching 300, Brewing 300, Baking 300, Tailoring 300, Smithing 300 (plus 15% VT gaunts )

  • #2
    Hi Sincro,

    To make a long story short...

    Do you have any tailoring mastery AA ?

    Do you NOT have any smithing mastery AA ?

    And, while the math would take a while to show, getting half or double expectation of failure in runs of less than thousands is annoying, it's not really statisticly significant. You need to be over 3 or under a third, for over at least a thousand, to really be outside the standard deviation.

    But on a personal note... bummer.
    In My (Not Always) Humble Opinion, except where I quote someone. If I don't know I say so.
    I suck at this game, your mileage WILL vary. My path is probably NON-optimal.
    Private Messages attended to promptly.

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    • #3
      Unless I have some funky math going, even if her rate of failure halved in the attempts up to 1000, she'd still be off the curve.

      Comment


      • #4
        I am capped on AA, sir. I am very aware of how many samples are needed for mathematicians to 'prove' something is or is not statistically significant. I am a long time parser for rogue dps (not a purvue of this board, just establishing bona fide) and we like to see runs of 30-50k swings at a minimum to say something is or is not significant.

        My point, however, was that as early as 500 or so you can start to see the curve smoothing out, and get a reasonably good idea where it is going. What's not happening here is any smoothing whatsoever. I was mostly curious to see if anyone knows as fact, or has a strong suspicion that the subcombines have a built-in fail rate higher then what is expected. (And, btw, with 284 skill, and a 14% mod, with 415 strength, and all relevant AA, the expected fail rate is zero according to the calculator.) I'm aware there is a max success rate of 95%, but I have also seen numerous posts saying that as skill approaches 200 above what is needed, that 95% does trend toward 100%. My with mod skill is currently 327, 144 points above the trivial value. It just doesn't seem right to me to be failing every 10th sickle/hilt/pommel combine. And doing so through enough combines to end up with 600 actual sickle attempts.

        Just lookin for an answer, even if it is: Sux to be you man. Bettah luck on the next ones!

        /grin
        - Sinc
        Poison 300 + GM Seal, Pottery 300, JC 300 + Trophy, Fletching 300, Brewing 300, Baking 300, Tailoring 300, Smithing 300 (plus 15% VT gaunts )

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Natem View Post
          Unless I have some funky math going, even if her rate of failure halved in the attempts up to 1000, she'd still be off the curve.
          I'm a 'him' btw.
          - Sinc
          Poison 300 + GM Seal, Pottery 300, JC 300 + Trophy, Fletching 300, Brewing 300, Baking 300, Tailoring 300, Smithing 300 (plus 15% VT gaunts )

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by SincroFashad View Post
            (And, btw, with 284 skill, and a 14% mod, with 415 strength, and all relevant AA, the expected fail rate is zero according to the calculator.) I'm aware there is a max success rate of 95%, but I have also seen numerous posts saying that as skill approaches 200 above what is needed, that 95% does trend toward 100%.
            Um. Your calculator is wrong. It's currently not possible to reach a zero percent fail rate on any item with a trivial over 100.

            According to our site calculator, you have a 97% chance of success at your skill and mod. (The success rate is generally capped at 95%, but the cap goes 1% up for each 40 points of raw skill you have over the trivial.)

            And out of curiosity, where in the world did you find a 14% mod?
            Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
            Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
            Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
            Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

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            • #7
              Your calculations are a bit off. If you made 600 sickles, then you did 1800 part combines successfully. Since you had 62 failures, then you had a total of 1862 attempts.

              This is a very straightforward statistics problem. It's a binomial distribution with
              n = 1862
              p = 0.97
              q = 0.03

              The mean number of successes is 1806, with a standard deviation of 7.36. You had 1800 successes which is within 1 standard deviation of the mean. That is a very reasonable outcome.

              Danedori

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              • #8
                not to change the subject but kryo he did say 15% and not 14% and its gauntlets that drop i believe off of one of the bosses in akheva ruins.

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                • #9
                  He said 15% in his original post and 14% later on. I'm guessing the 14% was just a typo.

                  Danedori

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                  • #10
                    Yah, the 14% was a typo. Sorry. The Gauntlets of Dark Embers come from one of the bosses in Vex Thall. DXX iirc. And, you're right about 600 requiring 1800 subcombines. I was grouping em in threes. The exact numbers were: 667 blade attempts, 651 hilt attempts and 669 pommel attempts.

                    I was using the site calculator, and I blame it being too late last night and me being fairly pissed off at the RNG to read it right. You're correct, the chance to fail isn't 0, it's around 3%.

                    Sorry for not posting actual numbers and the typo, and for reading the calulator wrong. I'm certain I got 0% from the chance to skill up line. Me stupid. Me sorry.
                    - Sinc
                    Poison 300 + GM Seal, Pottery 300, JC 300 + Trophy, Fletching 300, Brewing 300, Baking 300, Tailoring 300, Smithing 300 (plus 15% VT gaunts )

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                    • #11
                      Eh, no need to be sorry, we all have our off days.

                      But yeah, your success rates do look a little off. I guess the RNG was in a bad mood that day.

                      Think of it this way. Your bad luck enabled someone else to have a perfect session with no fails at all.
                      Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
                      Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
                      Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
                      Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by KyrosKrane View Post
                        Eh, no need to be sorry, we all have our off days.

                        But yeah, your success rates do look a little off. I guess the RNG was in a bad mood that day.

                        Think of it this way. Your bad luck enabled someone else to have a perfect session with no fails at all.
                        Heh, well it sure wasn't me that got the session with no fails.
                        But even with all the failed combines and the 80K+ spent I will STILL take the 16 skill ups to 290 skill in smithing.
                        Fletcher 300 || Brewer 300 || Blacksmith 300 || Jeweler 300 || Tailor 300 || Baker 300 || Potter 300 || Tome Research 144

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                        • #13
                          Apparently what was happening was I was building up karma for the final push to max out both tailoring and smithing.

                          I got pretty sick of sickles, so I decided to go farm the bejeezus out of CT for tae ew blood.

                          First farm session: got 106 bloods and 3 flawless hides. Pushed smithing from 288 to 291. (plus I got a tae ew hide sack out of it...)

                          Second farm session: Got *eleven* flawless hides and 111 bloods. Already cruising on the drop karma, I started doing combines. 39 combines to go from 291 to 295 smithing. So, I switched to the sunshard ore I had sitting and waiting in my bank for this point. Have 164 silver conduit caps made. Hit up merchant Woad for the rest of the stuffs, and get 5 smithing skill ups in 103 combines to hit 300. Well, ****. Still got 61 caps left. Back to merchant Woad to get tailoring stuffs. Brought my tailoring kit and did the combines right in front of him. Got my last three skill ups to max tailoring and become a master artisan in only 26 combines! I was in utter shock, and I think Silmare was, too... I gave her 6 of my flawless hides to keep the karma gods happy, and turned my leftover distilled blood and caps to my GF for her final run up to 300.
                          - Sinc
                          Poison 300 + GM Seal, Pottery 300, JC 300 + Trophy, Fletching 300, Brewing 300, Baking 300, Tailoring 300, Smithing 300 (plus 15% VT gaunts )

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                          • #14
                            Wow! Could I touch your hand in the hopes some of that Tradeskill luck will rub off!!
                            Fletcher 300 || Brewer 300 || Blacksmith 300 || Jeweler 300 || Tailor 300 || Baker 300 || Potter 300 || Tome Research 144

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