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Failed BBC Combine
ARRRRRRGH!!!!!!!!!!!
What a waste of time.
ARRRRRRGH!!!!!!!!!!!
What a waste of time.
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wow failed again. is 250 with 5% mod and baking mastery 3 salvage 3 not enough? calculator says 95%. is this combine bugged? seems total BS that this is not no fail. the amount of work invested to get to the final combine is unreal. im considering skilling up to 300 just to be safe before i make a 3rd attempt. -
Wow, you sure got combines for another try quick.. salvage anything either time?
And with your skills you should have max chances.
It could always be that you're the 1 in 400 that fails twice.Kyroskrane tells you, 'AwwoooOOOOooAaawwaa!'Comment
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failed challenge meatsComment
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failed dragon steaks.
something is majorly broken. the trivials are not correct. or else the rng is bugged.
the likelyhood of failing 4x in 10 combines is a 40% fail rate. thats way off a 5% fail rate.Comment
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Originally posted by ghiradorHow the heck are you getting supplies that quickly.. I wish I could get supplies for BBC meats in a dayOriginally posted by ghiradorKyroskrane tells you, 'AwwoooOOOOooAaawwaa!'Comment
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RNG really hates you. I just tried anothr GM legs and failed, salvaging only 1 GDH. That brings to a total of 22 wasted GDH with only 1 leg and 1 tunic. Not 60% success as posted elsewhere but more like 30% success to me.
With 12% trophy and my skill, I should be at 60% chance.
/DT the RNGComment
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/sigh ....Originally posted by ghirador
The "likelyhood" of getting 0 of 4 at 0.95 success is ... 0.00000625 (I in 160,000)
That sounds "impossible."
The likelyhood of winning the Powerball(tm) lottery is 1 in 165,000,000. People win that multiple times a year, and -frequently- independant people use the EXACT SAME NUMBERS and so have to split the win.
The RNG is not broken. You had bad luck. It's unfortuneate. It's even painful.
The odds of getting four Gift of Mana "procs" in four consecutive casts are 1 in 10,000 "relavent" spells. I have had at least 2 instances of "4 in a row" and get "3 in a row" roughly once a week.
I've had "time lapse" go off 4 times in a short fight. Then I've had it not happen once in three fights.
Your "bad" luck translates to "good luck" for someone else. For your 4 failures perhaps 4 guildmates made their combines when they otherwise might not have?
"If you can't afford to lose, don't roll the dice." Yeah it's trite but it's also true. You had the ingredients to make 2 final combines AND meats AND dragon steaks ? Yay YOU!! Woot. I don't think my pre-Qvic -guild- has seen that much Sea Dragon Meat in the last 4 months.
Hopefully you won't go 0 for 5 and ...
Hey, wait .... After failing the two final combines... you failed a "Meats" ... but to make a "Meats" combine ... didn't you need to succeed at a "Steaks" combine?
Could you post the actual SERIES of combines you made between the failure on the "final combine attempt number one" and the failed Sea Dragon Steak?
Because if, as I now suspect, you simply got 4 failures at unfortuneate points in a series of 50 combines ... the odds against that happening drop VERY SHARPLY ....
To 50C4 * (0.05^4) * (0.95^46) which is ...
13.5975% ... more than 1 in EIGHT ?
Presuming you made only 50 "trivial max 95%" combines in this run ... 4 failures is coming up on the "50 / 50" likelyhood of a coin flip. Which means you got really unlucky with WHERE the failures happened. But if you had failed "butter" and "white wine" combines you'd not be as likely to notice....
Humans are SHOCKINGLY BAD at noticing patterns. Most see patterns where there are none, and don't see them when they actually occur.In My (Not Always) Humble Opinion, except where I quote someone. If I don't know I say so.
I suck at this game, your mileage WILL vary. My path is probably NON-optimal.
Private Messages attended to promptly.
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Good post!Originally posted by Itek
The only thing I'm really wondering is why he had to do a sea dragon steaks combine if he had only used up three steaks.Kyroskrane tells you, 'AwwoooOOOOooAaawwaa!'Comment
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Opportunistic folks in the bazaar realize lots of people will be making less then five of these and convert them into steaks themselves to sell them.
For a counterpoint, lol, I farmed and scrounged enough to make 3 BBC combines, capping baking mastery in that time. At 254 iirc +5% I did not fail a single signifigant combines across all 3.
The RNG giveth, and the RNG taketh away, I figured it was making up for the 3 blown BP's in a row a few months back.Xodar - Tribunal server
Bhur Gcairde
Blacksmithing 285 M3 +8%, Baking 269 M3+8%, Tailoring 262 M3+8%, Fletching 300 M3+12%, Brewing 255 M3+8%, Jewelry 300 M3 +12%, Pottery 300 M3+12%Comment
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Steaks = No Drop now.In My (Not Always) Humble Opinion, except where I quote someone. If I don't know I say so.
I suck at this game, your mileage WILL vary. My path is probably NON-optimal.
Private Messages attended to promptly.Comment
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Really? WHen did that happen, I know they made challenges no drop.Xodar - Tribunal server
Bhur Gcairde
Blacksmithing 285 M3 +8%, Baking 269 M3+8%, Tailoring 262 M3+8%, Fletching 300 M3+12%, Brewing 255 M3+8%, Jewelry 300 M3 +12%, Pottery 300 M3+12%Comment
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Dragon steak is still droppable according to this site.. but the Challenge meats are not.
Alliance Artisan
Proud owner of Artisan's Prize.Comment
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Really? I got one in barter the other day (after patch)Originally posted by ItekKyroskrane tells you, 'AwwoooOOOOooAaawwaa!'Comment
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Sandwiches and Challenge Meats are No Drop. Steaks can be traded.
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