DoN-GM stuff scares me

[Zacatac]

On the same weekend where I made 5 high level research GoD spells in a row, with only 248 skill + geerlock + Mastery-3 (and then failed the 6th), I later failed 3 out of 4 GM augment smithing combines with 300 skill + trophy + Mastery-3.

I think I'll stick with my spell research! I have a chance to skill up, and my success rate seems to be even better on the hardest combines than my smithing success rate.

Buying 4 metallic scales in bazaar + 4 purescale ore = 100k
Making 1 of 4 augment = 40k. A loss of 60k for the day. I need to make at least 3 of 4 to make a profit, and I've been on the wrong side of that equation a few times now.

What if I had been doing BP/Leg combines at triple the costs? I would have tripled my loss!

I know people are making a bundle doing GM augments/armor, but even I have limits on just how deep into my pockets I want to reach. I bought 10 metallic scales once, 250k. I failed a couple of those combines and ended up with a small profit, but 1 more fail would have put me in the negative on that trip also!

[Phantron]

From my personal experience, you got to have enough capital to cover a stack (20) of scales to account for bad luck, especially when dealing with leg/bp combines. You don't have to be able to buy a stack at once but you need to be able to afford 20 scales eventually if the RNG isn't going your way. Or, look at it this way: it is not at all unusual to fail 3 BPs in a row. That's 9 scales down the drain. With the expected 60% chance max to make BPs, you only have a 21% chance to succeed 3 out of 3 for the next BPs, and even if you do you're still below your normal expected returns after going through 18 scales. And, similar to poker, if failing the 3 BPs drops your money to 0, then you don't even get a chance to make a comeback, which is why you need enough money to cover about a stack of scales.

If you're doing symbols, you can probably get away with smaller capital since the number used per symbol is much less than BP/Legs.

[Ysall]

This is why I retired from DoN GM cultural. Two runs of bad luck burnt me very badly. Failed 7/9 bps and legs, lost a fortune, and vowed never to make the stuff again. Got convinced months later to try again becuase I was the only cultural GM for my race, and got burned again with a 6/7 fail run on GM/legs.

I know these things even out, but risking 60-75kp per combine on something with a success rate of 60% means bad runs are very possible, and for the amount you can lose, just don't make it worthwhile to me any more.

Which is a great pity, becuase on my server it means there are no High-Elf GM armour makers active any more, and an entire race is denied access to GM stuff.

[Phantron]

Well GM armor is really a game of mathematics. I just do combines for someone who resells the armor so there is no risk of me running out of money, but if you're doing your own shop, you got to factor in things like at least 4% of all your scales will also fail to make a sheet, so you're probably looking at ~55% adjusted chance to succeed GM bp/legs. When you factor in time to sale and whatnot I think you really need to be able to break even if you succeed only 40% of the time so far as prices go. Anything more than that, you're quite likely to lose money on a bad run if you don't have a ton of capital (>1 stack of material at least).

[Angelsyn]

I dunno... I keep finding Purescale Ore on Vendors...

Yeah, Metallic Drake Scales are a PITA... but the Ore? No problem.