Yay for Master bonus!

[Twistagain]

Tailoring run...Master Vah Anima Wristbands.

Starting at 245, wis of 340, no mastery.
20 successes, no skillups
2 failures, no skillups
1 success, 1 skillup (246)
30 successes, no skillups
1 success, 1 skillup (247)
4 successes, no skillups.

In total, 58 attempts, 56 successes, 2 skillups (expected around 6-7). Chance of this happening according to the calculator (at 11.64% chance per attempt, based on the +5% for Master armor)? Around 8 in 10,000...aren't I lucky.

Oh...and 2500pp per skillup...maybe I shouldn't buy a lottery ticket today.

[Itek]

Ok, I think your numbers are off.

Probability of combined success/failure, expectation of 2 success events, 56 failure events, success probability 12%

58C56 * (.88^56) * (.12^2) = .01852102364

That's 2 percent. Not 1/1250.

nCr = 58n (58 trials) 56r (56 failures, in any order, combinations not permutations)

That's 58!/56!2! = 1653 possible combinations of successes and failures to equal 2 successes in a run of 58.

Also if you are having BAD luck in one way (EQ tradeskills) it either has NO effect on your life in another way (the lotto) ... OR you can lump them together and average them (Law of big numbers) so your odds of doing better in the lottery INCREASE when you have a bad tradeskill day.

Go ahead, buy the ticket. (Remember Itek is a Dark Elf Enchanter when he's not being a Halfling Cleric of Mischief.)

Oh, running the calculations for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 successes the total probability of getting 7 or less successes at 11.56% success rate is really close to 65%. Meaning you're more likely to get 7 or less successes than anything else.

And finally, the chances of getting 12 successes (skill ups) was

58C46 * (.1156^12) * (.8844^46) = 0.0178484579

You were just as likely to get 2 successes exactly as you were to get 12 successes exactly. How come no one ever posts when they get 12 skill ups on a run of 60 ?

[Wyvernwill]

Most faint or die from the shock, thusly are rendered unable to post.

[Rawckett]

You were just as likely to get 2 successes exactly as you were to get 12 successes exactly. How come no one ever posts when they get 12 skill ups on a run of 60 ?

Because there too busy doing cartwheels?

[Zacatac]

I'll go post my screen shot of 4 skill ups in a row, 249, 250, 251 and 252 in tailoring sometime later.

[Jago668]

I'll go post my screen shot of 4 skill ups in a row, 249, 250, 251 and 252 in tailoring sometime later.

I did nearly the same thing in brewing. 249, 250, 251, 252 in 6 combines. Which I guess made up for the 600 combines it took to go from 193 to 194.

[Baldary]

I got 6 skillup points from 294 to 300 on 43 Master's tailoring combines. I was doing cartwheels.

Baldary