Again..the RNG..

[Rissenn]

440 /&¤/()/%( Ceremonial solstice combines. ONE frigging skillup with INT 345.

A LOT of people complaining about bad luck with tailoring. Anyone else noticed strance or bad skullups after patch?

[Koru]

Couple of days ago went 13 skillups on 262 combines, so seems to be working ok for me at least. Think you just had one of those bad luck runs where the RNG hates you.

[Rissenn]

And a run of about 300 fletching combines without a skill-up as well last night....at INT 355..

[Vyncent]

And a run of about 300 fletching combines without a skill-up as well last night....at INT 355..

Could that be because, according to your sig, your fletching is at 250 already....

Vyncent Wolfkin
50 Druid on Torvo
180 Blacksmithing
120 Tailoring
195 Brewing
199 Baking
190 Fletching
#1 in da hood g

[Rissenn]

Finally managed to get to 250, so I changed it maybe 2 hours ago. =)

I just got tired of it and blew maybe 50K and just cleared the bazaar for components.

[ruodrra]

/em shakes head at the maddening world of trade skills where the only thing worse than one skill up in 440 combines doing ceremonial solstice robes is one skillup with a dozen successful combines.

Everyone says the RNG is 'truly' random but I sure don't see it. If that were the case...for the 440 combines with one skillup..you should sometime, someplace have a run of 20 skillups on your next 440 combines...never happens for me

I saw a thread about a list of things to fix in tradeskilling -- I was amazed no one suggested that the RNG or the skillup formula be tweaked.

[xaanru]

I had 8 skillups in about 120 Cultural robes, is that close enough

[Ngreth Thergn]

I saw a thread about a list of things to fix in tradeskilling -- I was amazed no one suggested that the RNG or the skillup formula be tweaked.

Because we are realists

There is no way they are changing the RNG...

the formula is more likely than the RNG, but still way way way way unlikely to happen thing at this point in the game.

[Itek]

*sigh*

As Ngreth has pointed out (as, indeed, have I, on numerous occasions) the RNG is here to stay.

Since, quite literally, everything in the WORLD depends on it.

If the expectation is one skill up in 20 and you fail to get one for 400 in a row what is your expectation for the next 40 combines.

TWO.

Not 22.

What happened in the past has NO BEARING on the current combine. Zero. Nada. The RNG doesn't keep score.

Just for kicks I went back and did the MATH.

success = skill + 51.5 - (.75 * trivial)

skill = 217
trivial = 335

success = 17.25
failure = 82.75 (and you WANT to fail, because then you get the chain back)

For tradeskills with an alternate stat set S = max(int,wis,alt)
For tradeskills with no alternate stat set S = max(int,wis)-15

If the combine failed set F=2
If the combine succeeded set F=1

Set N=(S*10)/(Y*F)

If ran(1000) < N then proceed to the second check

Second check: If ran(200) >= min(190, skill) then skillup!

Tailoring = Y = 3 no alternate stat
max(int,wis) - 15 = 330
min(190,skill) = 190

Check-skill-up success = 3300/3 = 1100 > 1000
Check-skill-up failure = 3300/6 = 550 < 1000

Chance of skill up = chance of skillup-failure + chance of skillup-success

chance of skillup-failure = %failure * %check-skill-up * %skill-up

.8275 * .55 * .045 = .020480625

(you fail 82.75% and there is a 0-550 out of 0-999 chance the check continues, and a 191-199 out of 0-199 chance of a skill up.)

chance of skillup-success = %success * Certain * % skill-up

.1725 * 1 * .045 = .0077625

(you succed 17.25% and 1100 is greater than 1000 but the skill-up is still only on 191-199 out of 0-199)

Chance of skill-up = .020480625 + .0077625 = .028243125 = 3%

3% != 1/20

.028243125 * 440 = 12.426975 ... 12

Koru claims 12 successes on 262 tries. That's almost double expectation.

If you play 7 hands of BlackJack and lose them all... that's unlikely. If you play 14 hands and lose them all... find a different dealer.

If you hit combine 100 times and get no successes where you expect 2 or 3 ... you had a bad night. Try again later.

If you hit combine 400 times and get no successes... you've got my sympathy, but not a shred of evidence of either a broken RNG or skill up formula.

If I were to say "this could be fixed to make it better" I'd say change the skill up check from

ran (200) > min(190,skill)

to

ran (250) > min(230, skill)

But there are other things we might ask for.

Every 20 non-trivial combines = skill up. (rofl)

Every non-trivial combine = skill up. (double rofl)

Reasons they don't do that:

Random expectation. A mouse will, literally, work itself to DEATH on a random "paybar" which doses out cocaine. With a constant payout bar the mouse will only dose itself a certain number of times, then return when it likes. They don't WANT mobs to always drop set loot. They don't WANT the tradeskills to follow a smooth progression of X attempts for Y skill points. Notice that they put THREE randoms in the skill up. Success, check, skill. This is NOT a bloody ACCIDENT!!

They COULD simply make it that everytime you try you learn a bit. In order to do this the drop rate would have to be reduced by AT LEAST a factor of 20. Anyone want to suggest this? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

If at first you don't succeed ... Maybe skydiving isn't for you.

[Koru]

I got very very lucky on that first run, next round I did 200 combines and got 3 skillups. The RNG will always get ya at one point or another. So yup, tailoring is a lot like playing blackjack, some nights you lose and lose and lose, and sometimes you hit the jackpot. When you keep losing chances are it's not the game that's broken, it's your luck.

[ruodrra]

loved your post Itek, especially the analogy about the mouse.

Yes, tradeskilling is a lot like gambling...you keep feeding the slot machine in the hopes of seeing the jackpot. But to continue that analogy, a slot machine keeps you playing by paying out lots of small 'teaser' amounts (not enough to break even) -- but enough so that you keep thinking 'the next one will be the BIG one'.

Yes I am a dreamer. If the RNG can't be changed, I vote for tweaking the formula. Alternatively, find a way to increase the 'teaser wins' (e.g., if you have a chance to fail on trivial, you should have a chance ...even a tiny one...of skilling up). Or maybe add a chance for a 'critical skillup' (hey, we have critical hits and critical heals) where you get a 2 or 3 point skillup (yeah, rolf I know).

[Maevenniia]

If at first you don't succeed ... Maybe skydiving isn't for you.

ROFL

[Legolyn]

Although I know it's not a broken RNG, sometimes I swear the thing just hates me for no known reason.

417 combines solstice robe combines later with one skill-up and I'm beginning to give in to my own paranoia.