RNG observations...

[Draggar]

I've proven that the RNG has good and bad times.

You need a skill that you can quickly work on, for me, being a rogue, it is easily lock pick and disarm traps.

I did lock pick in Befallen, door #1 (sometimes on Door#2 during high traffic times). There were definitely times when the skill would go up in groups, assuming 1 attempt every 2 seconds, the skill would go up 3-6 times in less than 10 attempts, then go several (50-200) attempts without a skillup.

Disarm traps I did in SolA by the pendulum (near the entrance from Lavastorm). Much faster clicking here, averaging 2-3 attempts per second, and skillups went up much faster (for more attempts) and there were times that the skill would go up 5-15 times in few attempts (50 total) and other times I would again go 50-200 attempts without a skillup. (Skill is at 162 now, I should do a finishing run sometime this week for LDoN)

While a guildie of mine was working on Ogre faction, I grouped up with her (for the 1% exp per kill!), out on my Mrylokars bracer, summoned a couple hundered daggers, and worked on throwing. Again, certain times (skill went from 12 to 75) the skill went up 3-5 times with each throw, then didn't go up at all for a few fights.

[Verdandi]

Yes, the Random Number Generator is streaky. That is because randomness is streaky. What you have observed is typical and to be expected. So just to clarify, the fact that it works this way does not in any way mean that it is broken.

And yes, it can be frustrating as all get out

[scarbrowed]

Actually, someone even showed mathematically that basketball players "on a streak" are actually behaving just like random numbers. So even when Michael Jordan goes on a shooting streak, it's really just random. Just like our beloved RNG.

[Itek]

*sigh*

Um... scar... professional sports players are NOT random number generators. A batter with a "lifetime average .289" is not "due" to hit 1 time in 4.

In the fan faire write-up (or somewhere similar, but recently) one of the Developers was quoted as saying something along the lines of ...

"When I joined the team I took the RNG algorithm and ran it for a billion cycles. It -is- broken, in that it's PERFECTLY random, with totally equal distribution. Real RNGs don't have perfect distribution so I think that the extremely long algorithm might be shortened to give a less perfect distribution."

Now, that, friends and neighbors, is SARCASM. *tip of the hat*

What the dev said, for sarcasm inhibited or computer science novices, is...

"The RNG is perfect. If you want me to make it LESS perfect say the word."

Can we PLEASE just accept those facts we cannot change? The RNG is... the RNG. You can do whatever you want to "influence" it. (pick a zone where no one else is on, have a tradeskill book open, sacrifice a gnome/newbie, wait till a fizzle, pick a superstition...) But the fact remains that the RNG which determines when and for how much you (and everyone else) hits is the same one we are STUCK WITH for tradeskills.

Over and over and over people have tried to explain that "pseudo Random Number Generators" is a pretty mature technology from the computer science aspect. They aren't going to get a whole lot better.

Grumbling about bad luck... that's cool. I do it myself. (Had my smithing skill to 83 percent success level for Coldain 8th shawl smithing. Figured it's easier to fail one in 8 attempts and get the materials over rather than farm 100 leather padding for the last 12 points of skill. Failed 2 of 4 attempts. *sigh* Bad luck.)

Grumbling about the RNG being "streaky" ... you don't seem to mind when the Monk quads for full damage 3 rounds in a row...

I just can't think of a single thing they are LESS likely to fool around with than the RNG. It is the very CORE of the game. Literally EVERYTHING in the game, from combat to drops to tradeskills to spawns (PlaceHolder vs Named) to name generator to "it begins to rain" draws on the RNG. Break it and the game is OVER.

Draggar-

Taking into account the fairly limited sample size of your "experiments" (as compared to a billion cycles) would you admit that the "average number of attempts per skill up" over the various ranges follows a somewhat smooth curve?

1-50 skill. x attempts per skillup
50-80 skill. x+2 attempts per skillup
80-100 skill. x+5 attempts per skillup
etc etc etc.....

Humans don't notice patterns well. Some people believe there are "hidden codes" in the bible that can be de-ciphered. Any cryptologist or math nut can tell you that from a sufficiently large cipher text you can draw any "clear text" you are looking for.

When looking for "streaky-ness" don't say,
"I got 3 skill ups back to back, then did 40 combines and got nothing, then came back and did one combine and got a skill up"

say instead,
"in the range of 120 - 140 skill I did 44 combines for 4 skill ups, averaging 11 attempts per skill up"

and you will see the subtle difference.

[Draggar]

I wasn't complaining about the RNG at all, I was stating an observation. I fully understand that its random (hence RANDOM number generator), and the higher the skill, the more attempts per skillup.


Sure, I get a little fustrated when I miss 3 backstabs, get one for minimum damage, then miss 3 more, who wouldn't. But I am also happy when I do 2 max damage backstabs in a row.

Maybe they should make new diety, RaNGo.

And to clarify the ranges:

Pick Locks went from 103-200 during that run in befallen, and I had similar results with the <100 run.

Disarm traps went from 2 to 162 in SolA in 2 sessions.

Throwing went from 12 to 75 in one session.

And yes, I had much better luck when my skill was lower, but that is expected.