Gem Studded Chain NERF!!!!!!

[Sabamiki]

was at about 18 to 19 per 20 combines befor last few patches.

now I am at 50% with JCM 3 and skill mob and 250 skill same as I was befor the last few patches.


as for a bad run well i am about 500 or less out fo 1000 trys and only do 50 trys or so a day.

man why do they want to hurt my bank accoutn always

[Silound]

If you only do about 50 a day, then that's a small sample each run withthe RNG, so that isn't much to base a nerf accusation on. You are more than liekly experienceing a nice stretch of streaky RNG runs.

Sil

[Kronepsis]

1) Anything mentioning the word "nerf" is phrased like a rant. Nerfs are intentional--this may not have been. You might want to throw this in the Primal Scream Room instead.

2) Look here when you cool down.

[Sabamiki]

Valorium Ring Of Gallantry ok i just ran 100 of them now that i lost so much PP on chains it is time to sell my rings witch are ALWAY a very nice % combine until today 47 of them out of 100 run NERF NERF bad luck EVERY time i do ANYTHING for 1 weekish in a row god must have his back turn on every one and is watchign me fill time to make sure every thing i do fails ?? no i say NERF

[Berix]

Wha?!

I'm curious where you got so many Metallic Liquids to do 100 combines.

[Arista]

In case you haven't done so already, you might want to take a look at the following thread in the jewelcraft forum:
JCM broken

According to some GM, it is probably best to avoid doing JC combines until they get a chance to investigate this.

[Sabamiki]

Yes after my trade skill party tonight and yet tons more JC chains fails we norrowed it down to JC was as u just stated


so the nerf was more of a broken AA skill costing me and others more PP then we can count


as for the liquids well i a master trader and find them plus friends give them to me.


so there is your data not a bad run but yet again a broken skill good note i gained 24 tailoring point tonight 237 now but at the cost of 2 times as much

[Thistlebane]

If you only do about 50 a day, then that's a small sample each run withthe RNG, so that isn't much to base a nerf accusation on. You are more than liekly experienceing a nice stretch of streaky RNG runs.

I think I strongly disagree with this. 1000 runs is 1000 runs. How exactly do you think the RNG is operating that breaking it into sets is likely to change it?

How many do you think he needs to do at one time to get accurate results? Can you please define "at one time" also? He needs to try again within 2 seconds, what?

This is a real time game, that RNG is spitting out random numbers fast enough to make your head spin, I would think that breaks would have NO bearing on the accuracy...

[bana-zir]

Originally posted by Thistlebane
I would think that breaks would have NO bearing on the accuracy...

Well, I would have to disagree.

I can experience runs of 9/10 on one day and 1/10 on others
doing the same combine at 250 skill in tailoring. My general rule is that if I fail twice in a row, I wait until 48 hours later. If I fail to follow this rule, I can lose many more supplies and even waiting 8 hours or to the next day has never fixed the problem.

[Verdandi]

My general rule is that if I fail twice in a row, I wait until 48 hours later. If I fail to follow this rule, I can lose many more supplies and even waiting 8 hours or to the next day has never fixed the problem.

But it's impossible to know what would have happened if you had not taken a break, so this doesn't prove anything. Randomness does not mean a lack of streaks. I'm willing to bet that if you did 1000 successive combines and then 10 every 10 minutes for however long it'd take to do 1000 combines, you would find the same rate of successes and failures overall. You just don't see the streaks because they're broken up over time.

Not that you are necessarily wrong. I don't have the data to demonstrate that. But the human tendency to see patterns where none exist is extremely well documented, so seeing them where they shouldn't exist is cause for wariness at the very least.

[Cigarskunk]

Well, I would have to disagree.

I can experience runs of 9/10 on one day and 1/10 on others

ROTFLMAO

This poor sod did 500 combines total - whether they are all at once or just 50 a day, the average still should have been around 90% or so.

What you are saying is that he had an obscene run of bad luck in 10 consecuative sessions.

Sure, it's bound to happen everyone once in a great while, just like the poor sods who are on thier 10th GM trophy attempts - but if something should be a 90% success rate on average and then it goes to 50% 10 seperate times in a row over the course of a fairly respectable number of 50 combines a pop - that's a very reasonable argument that something is wrong/changed.

(And it turns out that JC AA is busted, so he was correct in that something was wrong/changed.)