Ridiculous Failure Rates!

[Tyja]

Ever since the patch to reduce the trivial failures (which saved me a lot of money - at first) I've been abysmally FAILING my combines on Dark Elf Cultural armor!

So far I'm at 4/19 final combines, and falling fast. I just failed 9 in a row and I don't have enough cash to keep failing pieces. Before that ****able patch, I would have had more around 8/19 - not WONDERFUL, but enough that I don't have to try to make legs/bps to even see a glimmer of a profit. It's all I can do to even think of attempting combines for friends - I'm too afraid I'll waste their money.

My skill is 250, I have a geerlock hammer always equipped while smithing. I don't know why this is happening, but I needed to rant before I go back to throwing my plat into the forge.

[Railina]

People seem to be seeing much higher failure rates on non-trivial (including triv>250) items that they did before the patch. My person theory is that rather than only changing the code for minimum failure, they changed the way in which chance of success is calculated from your current skill. For instance, if they changed the calculation to something along the lines of "chance success = (( skill * 4) - (trivial * 2))/1000" so on, say, metal mits you'd have a chance of success of (1000-84)/1000 or slightly better than a 99% chance. This is in line whith the results we're seeing on low trivial items. However on a high-trivial item, such as BD cultural or Sickles, with trivials suspected of being 300 and 350 respectively, your chance of success becomes lower than 50%. This is also in line with the results we've seen.

I do not know this to be the case, but it does not strike me as unlikely that the waythey reduced trivial failures was a change to the code which calculated the chance of success, and inadvertantly lowered the success rate of items trivial at > 250 skill.

[Taushar]

I agree. They have changed the failure rate on close to trivial items. I failed way too many sub combines in many different skills to say it's a random chance.

I am at 217 smithing and been doing a lot of sub combines for sickles. I have noticed that I failed just over 10% in last few weeks. I believe these are trivial at 185? So it's not an easy combine but before the change, I was averaging 5%. Now on last 5 stacks of combines for each of 3 sub components (15 stacks total) I am seeing higher failures. It's not only for smithing either. I have seen this is JC, Tailoring, Brewing and fletching. I am convinced that this is not just RNG.

Taushar

[GraemeFaelban]

Have not noticed a change in failure rates on subcombines. The only two failures that a friend of mine had on some Tae Ew armor for me happened post patch however. Not a large enough sample really to make any judgement on though.