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  • The calculator appears to be incorrect

    I have read the post by KyrosKrane concerning Fan Faire June 2005 Write-up (Plus Tanker handout) .

    If you apply what appeared as the top discussion in that thread about the success rate, you find that a conclusion was drawn that "A person with zero skill and the appropriate crafting mastery 3 will have a 50% chance to succeed."

    If you check the calculator, you will find that it does not appear to function properly if the raw *success rate generates a negative number. It appears that the calculator does not bound the lowest success rate to zero, so it can calculate huge negative numbers that give a final result less than 50%. In fact, for very difficult to make items, like GM armor, it computes a value of 5% chance with or without smithing mastery 3.

    Which is correct? Is the write up correct? Or is the calculator correct?

    Thanks,

    Leana Soulwarden
    Blacksmith
    Inevitable Storm
    The Seventh Hammer
    Leana Soulwarden
    Master Blacksmith
    Memento Reejeryn
    The Seventh Hammer

  • #2
    Originally posted by Leana
    IWhich is correct? Is the write up correct?
    I believe the write up is correct but we need someone with rank 3 mastery and 0 skill in some tradeskill to test it I guess.

    If you try something with a trivial way above your skill, you can end up with a negative chance to succeed, altough the write-up says it doesn't.

    I'm not sure the code in EQ really adds extra code to cap the failure chance to 100% before applying aaxp mastery, but if it does then Ngreth's calculator is incorrect, otherwise it's correct.

    As far as I know, Tanker hasn't given out as much details on how the process of applying the successformula as he has for the skillup formula.

    Comment


    • #3
      without the real code in hand, it is dificult to say.

      I could have sworn that I did hear from tanker that it CAN be a negative chance, then add the modifer for AA mastery... so... we may just have conflicting data. We woiuld need tanker to confirm it one way or another or some crazy person to check.

      I don't feel it is vital because it is NOT likely for someone to get 3 ranks in mastery for a skill they have no skill in. And then at that point we are just really talking theory
      Ngreth Thergn

      Ngreth nice Ogre. Ngreth not eat you. Well.... Ngreth not eat you if you still wiggle!
      Grandmaster Smith 250
      Master Tailor 200
      Ogres not dumb - we not lose entire city to froggies

      Comment


      • #4
        Actually its more common than you think. some users have gotten so many aa's that they just buy everything.
        I know of at least 1 person that has all his aa's including mastery's and no tradeskill levels or very low like single digits.
        So unfortunately it is not only theory , as there is 1 practical example that exists and probably more.
        Scout Aavar Avrochet 70th Plainswalker
        Lady Ucchan Kuonji 70th Bedazzler

        Comment


        • #5
          The easiest and cheapest way to verify this would be to get Brewing Mastery 3 with 0 skill and have someone make 10 Brut Champagnes.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Aavar
            I know of at least 1 person that has all his aa's including mastery's and no tradeskill levels or very low like single digits.
            Oh! Please, presuming his brewing is 0, could you ask him to do a bunch of Minotaur Hero brews, (trivial 248) and check his successrate?

            If aaxp reduction isn't capped somewhere, he should have 5% chance to succeed, until he gets to skill 45. It should be easy to notice a successrate between 5% or 50%, or perhaps find a cap somewhere in between.

            (I've been doing a small DOS program to do calculations on batches of combines/successrate/streaks and would really love to have some of the questionmarks that popped up during the implementation straightened out.)
            Last edited by Konjure; 07-28-2005, 11:22 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Ok, fine, you guys got me curious.

              Turns out there's a little thing in the code that doesn't use Mastery AA's unless your skill is MORE than 0, so at 0... nothing.

              Now, at 1, it turns out your chance to succeed can very well be VERY negative when we enter the Mastery code, say on a trivial 270 combine. If your chance before Mastery was -150%, then after Mastery 3 it's -25% (because half of 250 is 125, Mastery 3 is a 50% mod to failure, right?). The next step is the lower capping of success to 5%, so in both cases you're at 5%.

              Now, if the combine "difficulty" was such that, before Mastery, your chance of success was merely 0%, then Mastery would give you that 50% boost. However, the more negative you get, the less benefit you get.

              Clear?

              Comment


              • #8
                Very clear and it makes a lot more sense. Thank you Mr. Tanker =)

                Master Artisan Xulan Du'Traix
                Dark Elven Scourge Knight
                Sanctus Arcanum
                Drinal
                My Tradeskill Services

                Comment


                • #9
                  Thank you for addressing this, Tanker.

                  Leana Soulwarden
                  Blacksmith
                  Inevitable Storm
                  The Seventh Hammer
                  Leana Soulwarden
                  Master Blacksmith
                  Memento Reejeryn
                  The Seventh Hammer

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Woot, thankee for the clarification. I'm gonna have to go back and fix a few spreadsheets now...

                    I wish there were a way to create your own formula in Excel. =/ It's a royal pain to write out the success/fail formula for each cell or instance.
                    Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
                    Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
                    Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
                    Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Today's your lucky day, Kk.

                      In Excel, go to Tools | Macro | Visual Basic Editor.

                      In the VB Editor window, go to Insert | Module.

                      In the new module window, you can write a function in VBA...for instance:
                      Function Cubed (intInput as integer) as double
                      Cubed = intInput * intInput * intInput
                      End Function
                      Then, whenever you type "=Cubed(2)" in a cell, it would evaluate to 8.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        BTW, a better example in this case might be:

                        Function SuccessRate(Trivial As Integer, RawSkill As Integer, Modifier As Integer, Mastery As Integer) As Double
                        Dim PrecapRate As Double
                        PrecapRate = (RawSkill * (Modifier / 100 + 1) - 0.75 * Trivial + 51.5) / 100
                        If RawSkill <> 0 then
                        Select Case Mastery
                        Case 1
                        PrecapRate = 1 - ((1 - PrecapRate) * 0.9)
                        Case 2
                        PrecapRate = 1 - ((1 - PrecapRate) * 0.75)
                        Case 3
                        PrecapRate = 1 - ((1 - PrecapRate) * 0.5)
                        End Select
                        End if
                        If PrecapRate > 0.95 Then
                        SuccessRate = 0.95
                        ElseIf PrecapRate < 0.05 Then
                        SuccessRate = 0.05
                        Else
                        SuccessRate = PrecapRate
                        End If
                        End Function
                        Note that this function has NO error checking. It assumes you will enter proper values for each arguement.

                        In this examples, the formula "=SuccessRate(335,0,5,3)" evaluates to .05, which is what you'd expect from a trivial 335 combine with skill 0, a geerlok, and mastery 3.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Tanker
                          Now, at 1, it turns out your chance to succeed can very well be VERY negative when we enter the Mastery code, say on a trivial 270 combine. If your chance before Mastery was -150%, then after Mastery 3 it's -25% (because half of 250 is 125, Mastery 3 is a 50% mod to failure, right?). The next step is the lower capping of success to 5%, so in both cases you're at 5%.
                          Thank you, thank you, thank you, Tanker!

                          Person A: non-tradeskiller with extremely low skill and Mastery 3
                          Person B: journeyman (200) tradeskiller with no mastery

                          Prior to this correction, those who interpreted the Fan Faire information came to the wrong conclusion. It looked like Person A had a 50% chance of making a tradeskill trophy, for instance. While Person B has much less. Never did seem fair.
                          I tried combining Celestial Solvent, a Raw Rough Hide, Rough Hide Solution and a Skinning Knife. But the result was such an oxymoron, it opened a rift into another universe. I fell through into one of Nodyin's spreadsheets and was slain by a misplaced decimal.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Twistagain, I'm pretty sure there's a mistake in your macro. In the mastery part. I'm a bit woozy now, but I'll look at it in more detail later on. Should be something like:

                            PrecapRate = PrecapRate + ((1 - PrecapRate) * 0.5)

                            Adjusted for each one. Again, I'm not sure, I'll have to study it when I'm a bit more clear-headed.
                            Sir KyrosKrane Sylvanblade
                            Master Artisan (300 + GM Trophy in all) of Luclin (Veeshan)
                            Master Fisherman (200) and possibly Drunk (2xx + 20%), not sober enough to tell!
                            Lightbringer, Redeemer, and Valiant servant of Erollisi Marr

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I too fell into the category of having Salvage 3 and Mastery 3 in all tradeskills before taking up tradeskills seriously. Actually, I did have 250 Brewing (for "something to do"), 115 Tailoring (req'd for epic 1.5 combine) and the rest were below 50 (Blacksmithing, Fletching) or at zero (JC, Pottery, Baking).

                              Tradeskills just did not hold any interest for me since 1999.

                              [80 Bloodreaver] Master Artisan Klotar Steelheart of the Freeport Militia (Dark Elf)
                              Sword of Fate ~ Prexus

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