Tinkering: Analysis of 165 skillups

To provide some data, I've analysed some skillups in tinkering.
Tinkering starts at an innate skill of 50, and I've used data up to skill 215.

My gnome has an int of 255, so I had S=240 to calculate with.

The average of these 165 skillups yielded a value for Y = 2.33.

Thanks to the RNG, Y ranged from 0.12 up to 11.

I think this isn't enough data to come to an conclusion for the tinkering difficulty.
And although it sure feels like difficulty 4, it seems that is's easier.

At skill 203, I needed 80 attempts for the next skillup.
Meaning Y = 9.6. And yes, that definately feeled like difficulty 10 to me.

Cheers,

While I think your calculations are correct regarding the results in your 2nd post, there is a flaw in the deduction you made regarding the second chance. You write:

which is based on

This doesn't translate like you stated though; it translates as

%2nd = [ 200 - min(190, skill) ] / 200

Your formula for Y then looks as follows:

Y = [ #att * S * ( 200 - min(skill, 190)) ] / [ F * 20.000 ]

Edit: I did a short Pottery skillup session yesterday, making 120 attempts. Since my skill was at 215 when I started, the value for min(skill, 190) was always 190, so that portion remained the same for my entire session. I gained 9 skillups, all on successes, resulting in an average of 13.33 attempts per skillup. With a WIS at 320, this then yields a value of Y = 2.133 for that session, which would indicate that Pottery has a value of Y = 2.

One of the things I've been meaning to do is write my own skillup calculator, or improve an Excel sheet I had designed earlier. Since we know the skillup formula and the success forumla, we should be able to get a predicted value for F that is between 1 and 2 -- if you will succeed 50% of the time, say, at a given skill level, then you can use 1.5 for F to get more meaningful results.

Maybe that will help you out?

And I thought that Pottery was made more difficult? So it can't possibly one of the easier tradeskills?

Sigh, looks like we really need a big, big number of data.

That's right, and I think that's how the online skillup calculators are done.

But for getting my Tinkering Y-value, I already knew if I had a failure or a skillup. Could "parse" this from the logfile (manually, for sure).

Cheers,

I just realised I made a slight error in my Pottery details. To calculate it, I used a value of 320 WIS, but since Pottery does not use a stat besides WIS/INT, I should have used a value of 305 instead. This reduces the value of Y to 2.033.

The formula should be
%1st = min(1,S/(100*Y*F))

Notice that we hit the limit of 100% on success when S>200 and Y=2 or when S>300 and Y=3.

That's why most people can't calculate Y with the formula
Y = [ #att * S * ( 200 - min(skill, 190)) ] / [ F * 20.000 ]

Most people attempt tradeskills when their S is above 200. In that case, we need the trivial, the number of successes and the number of failures for each individual skillup in order to estimate Y.

There is hope for a simpler way however.


First, we don't really need F to calculate %1st if we know the percentage of success. If W is the percentage of success,
%1st = W*min(1,S/(100*Y)) + (1-W)*min(1,S/(200*Y))

For somebody with S<=200, this simplifies to
%1st = (1+W)*S/(200*Y)

If somebody with S<=200 starts from skill 0 and attempts only trivials far above current skill so that success is 5%, then
#attempts = Y * #skillups * 1600000 / [ 21 * S * (401-skillups) ]

This should be a relatively easy test to find the correct Y. I think it likely that only one test per skill is required if the number of skillups used is large enough.

The only thing we need now is to find cheap trivials for each skill that give success 5%.

The (unconfirmed) success formula is
W = MAX(MIN((skill*(1+mod%))-trivial*0.75+51.5,95),5)/100

So the minimum trivial MT that gives 5% success for an unmodified skill is
MT = 1.33 * ( skill+46.5)
or if we prefer to find the maximum skill MS for a given trivial
MS= (0.75 * trivial) - 46.5

As an example, we already know that Y=4 for smithing but we could have tested it this way. We create a halfling druid with wisdom=115. Because smithing has an alternate, S is also 115. We decide to skill up on embroidering needles; they trivial at 122. We calculate that MS=45 so we expect that skilling up from 0 to 45 will take 167 attempts if Y=2, 251 if Y=3, or 335 if Y=4.

That's a good point that I totally overlooked, which also completely invalidates the value of Y that I reported above earlier.

Since my WIS was at 320 for my skillup session, it would only have mattered if Pottery has an Y-value of 4. Since I found mine to be closer to 2 (albeit that this one is not validated), however, I am tempted to say that Y for Pottery is not 4.

I know it's not entirely accurate as I did not write down the number of successes and failures, but I do know I did not get a skillup on a failure and I failed only about 4 times; all the rest were successes. I went from 215 to 222 in 56 combines making Green Ceramic Bands (so 7 skillups in 56) and then from 222 to 224 in 64 combines making White Ceramic Bands (so 2 skillups in 64). As is clearly evident when regarding the chance to skillup on the second calculation (as min(skill, 190) is 190 for all combines above 190 skill, which was the case here, there's a 5% skillup chance), I had a great deal of luck on the first 56 combines (skillup rate ~12.5%), while it left me in the cold on the next 64 (skillup rate ~ 3.125%). This clearly indicates that sample size is crucial to even out the irregularities in the distribution of the RNG.

Ooookay.
Now that's beyond me in some parts

Ack! You're so right.

???. Why isn't it enough to cap %1st to one as stated above?
And why would we need the number of successes and failures for each skillup?
How could we use that information? And why the trivial?
I'd like to understand this, but at the moment it's too high for me, maybe you can go a bit more into detail?
I have all the above data in my logfiles, so I could try to use it for a more accurate Y-calcultion if I'll understand this.

Again, I can't follow. Maybe you can explain how you've got that?

Apart from my confusion, I think it's a good idea to think your way:
Not: How can we use our already made skillup data to determine Y;
But: Which skillup layout should we choose to produce data for getting Y most accurately.

Hm, I could be mistaken, but I have the feeling that some developers at some gaming companies are grinning broadly as they read these lines.

Anyway, once we've found some good tradeskill / item trivial / char stats combinations, I am more than willing to do some test runs. How difficult can a few hundred of low-trivial combines be, anyway?

Cheers,

The reason lies embedded in this:

%1st = min(1,S/(100*Y*F))

If we take Y = 2 and F = 1 (we assume the trivial of the item attempted is close enough to almost always get successes, failures are only sporadic), then the second part simply becomes

%1st = min(1,S/200)

As a result, you can see that for any Tradeskill for which Y = 2, you always pass this test as long as your S is at 200+ (for 3-skill Trades) or 215+ (for 2-skill Trades). Y gets cancelled out of the equation as a result, which means you cannot determine it anymore; your skillup rate is then purely determined by the 2nd formula - which is independent of Y, F and S; and if your skill is above 190, even independent from your skill too. All you are doing then is eventually proving you have a 5% skillup rate on the combines.

If we use Y = 3 in the above, it simplifies to

%1st = min(1,S/300)

So the same as was said for Y = 2 above, applies here as well, but then for your S at 300+ (for 3-skill Trades) or at 315+ (for 2-skill Trades).

Most people who perform skillups these days will do so at max skill. In most cases, this is 255 or higher. As such, using those skillup sessions you can only prove in the long run if a skill has Y = 3 or Y = 4, you cannot prove Y = 2 for any Tradeskills with stats that high.

I created a spreadsheet that predicts the expected number of attempts for a skillup range given a list of trivials. I plugged in your skillup range of 215 to 224 and the trivials for unfired white ceramic band (231) and for unfired green ceramic band (222).

If Y=2, the expected value is 182 (40 for the white + 142 for the green).
If Y=3, it's is 185 (41+144).
If Y=4, it's 242 (54+188).

S is so high that Y matters only in the case of failure if Y=2 or Y=3. Because there are so few expected failures here, it's impossible to distinguish between Y=2 and Y=3.

As you remark later on, sample size is crucial. A sample of 9 skillups is too small in my opinion. Also, your run of 7 skillups in 56 attempts seems exceptional to me. High variablity argues for a large sample so I chose 45 skillups in my example.

Lastly the combination of high S and high success results in a small spread even between Y=4 and the other two Ys.


I plan to create a character to skillup from 0 to 45 on medium bowls (trivial 122 and cheap) later on. I will report here on the results. I may try other skills too, budget allowing.

I can't use the same strategy to estimate Y for alchemy, poison making, tinkering and spell research because they're level-capped. However I heard that you can grow a character to a high level instantly on Test. This would best be done by someone who already has a character on test and has the plat to buy the ingredients.

That's also why I said a large sample size is needed; my findings are from a sample too small to effectively reduce the statistical "noise".

I should have a few alts without Tradeskills. I could perform several runs on pretty much all skills, money is not much of an issue for me. I can't delete them, however, and have no room for new alts, so I can't make more than just a few runs.

Edit: You make one step that I cannot follow in your post.

I can follow you when you say that for S <= 200, you get

%1st = (1+W)*S/(200*Y)
%2nd = 1 - skill/200

I can combine this using

#att/skillup = 1/(%1st * %2nd)

yielding

#att/skillup = Y * 800,000 / (21 * S * (200 - skill))

Right now I don't see how you transform this to the one you show. Maybe I can figure it when I think some longer on it, but I'm sure you can also provide some insight .

I've spent some more time thinking about it, and realised that the only way to calculate this, is by performing an integral calculus. The formula

#att/skillup = Y * 800,000 / (21 * S * (200 - skill))

changes based on your skill, which is essentially your base skill plus the amount of skillups you achieve over the skillup run. You can do the following:

X = 200 - skill
DX = - Dskill

Your integral then looks like

#att = - [ (Y * 800,000) / (21 * S) ] * { ( 1 / x ) DX }

where the part between { and } is the integral. You can find the lower and upper limits by regarding your skill. Starting at 0 means your lower bound is 200 and if you go up to skill 45 (as you suggested), your upper bound is 155.

The integral is not easily solved, I had to duck into my Calculus books (and blow off 9 years of dust ) to find the solution, which is simply a logarithm. Had the bounds been from 0 to n, the solution for X would have simply been Log(n). It is not, however, but we can easily find it anyway by simply computing the area from 0 to 155 and from 0 to 200, substracting one from the other, to be left with the part from 155 to 200 for X.

Log(155) = 2.19
Log(200) = 2.30

The difference between them is -0.11 (the minus appears if we properly consider the upper bound and lower bound), which we can fill in instead of the integral outlined above. This yields roughly

#att = 4190.48 * Y / S

for the skill range from 0 to 45. Using 115 for S and Y = 2 yields about ~73 attempts needed, Y = 3 yields about ~109 attempts needed and Y = 4 yields about ~146 attempts needed.

Note that the value of 4190.48 depends on your target skill. If you skill up to something else than 45, this value will change as well. The same applies if you try to calculate it from a skill higher than zero.

Edit: Seeing as our predictions differ quite a lot between the two of us, one of us, or maybe both, has made a mistake somewhere.

I used a simpler number crunching method, by calculating the average number of attempts expected for skill up over a range, and comparing the actual results with the expected results for Y = 2 3 and 4.

Here is what I found for fletching using all my skill up data from 0 to 200.
Have a look and see if it works with any of your formulars.

Here are my detailed results fletching from 0 to 200.
They seem to indicate that Fletching is difficulty 3
Note however that this is only one limited sample.

Skill Atmp Suc Fail SUOn Item
1 2 1 1 Fail New1
2 2 2 0 Suc New1
3 3 3 0 Suc New1
4 1 1 0 Suc New1
5 2 1 1 Fail New1
6 2 1 1 Fail New1
7 1 0 1 Fail New1
8 2 1 1 Fail New1
9 1 1 0 Fail New1
10 1 1 0 Suc New1
11 6 3 3 Suc New1
12 3 1 2 Fail New1
13 2 1 1 Fail New1
14 2 1 1 Fail New1
15 1 1 0 Fail New1
16 2 1 1 Suc New1
17 3 2 1 Suc New1
18 2 1 1 Fail New1
19 2 1 1 Fail New1
20 3 2 1 Fail New1
21 3 1 2 Suc New1
22 1 1 0 Suc New1
23 2 1 1 Fail New1
24 1 0 1 Fail New1
25 5 1 4 Fail New1
26 1 1 0 Fail New1
27 2 0 2 Fail New1
28 7 4 3 Fail New1
29 1 0 1 Fail New1
30 3 3 0 Fail New1
31 1 1 0 Suc New1
32 2 1 1 Suc New2
33 1 1 0 Suc New2
34 3 1 2 Suc New2
35 3 2 1 Suc New2
36 1 1 0 Suc New2
37 6 4 2 Suc New2
38 4 2 2 Fail New2
39 1 0 1 Fail New3
40 6 3 3 Fail New3
41 4 2 2 Suc New3
42 2 0 2 Fail New3
43 4 3 1 Fail New3
44 3 3 0 Suc New3
45 2 1 1 Suc New3
46 1 0 1 Fail New3
47 2 1 1 Fail New4
48 2 2 0 Suc New4
49 1 0 1 Fail New4
50 1 0 1 Fail New4
51 3 1 2 Fail New4
52 2 0 2 Fail New4
53 1 1 0 Fail New4
54 5 4 1 Suc New4
55 4 2 2 Fail C1BP
56 3 2 1 Fail C1BP
57 4 2 2 Suc C1BP
58 1 0 1 Fail C1BP
59 8 7 1 Fail C1BP
60 2 2 0 Suc C1BP
61 2 2 0 Suc C1BP
62 6 1 5 Suc C1BP
63 1 1 0 Suc C1BP
64 13 7 6 Suc C1BP
65 2 1 1 Suc C1BP
66 1 1 0 Suc C1BP
67 3 2 1 Suc C1BP
68 6 4 2 Suc C1BP
69 1 1 0 Suc C3WP
70 4 2 2 Suc C3WP
71 2 2 0 Suc C3WP
72 1 1 0 Suc C3WP
73 2 1 1 Suc C3WP
74 2 1 1 Suc C3WP
75 2 1 1 Suc C3WP
76 2 1 1 Suc C3WP
77 1 1 0 Suc C3WP
78 4 3 1 Suc C3WP
79 1 1 0 Suc C3WP
80 2 2 0 Suc C3WP
81 1 1 0 Suc C3WP
82 1 0 1 Fail C3WP
83 3 3 0 Fail C4WP
84 1 0 1 Fail C4WP
85 8 7 1 Fail C4WP
86 1 1 0 Suc C4WP
87 1 0 1 Fail C4WP
88 2 1 1 Fail C4WP
89 2 2 0 Suc C4WP
90 1 1 0 Suc C4WP
91 7 4 3 Fail C4WP
92 1 1 0 Fail C4WP
93 3 1 2 Suc C4WP
94 2 1 1 Fail C4WP
95 1 1 0 Fail C4WP
96 3 2 1 Fail C4WP
97 3 3 0 Fail C4WP
98 4 2 2 Suc C4WP
99 4 4 0 Suc C4WP
100 1 1 0 Suc C4WP
101 8 5 3 Suc C4WP
102 2 2 0 Suc C4WP
103 3 2 1 Fail C4CP
104 3 2 1 Fail C4CP
105 4 2 2 Fail C4CP
106 6 3 3 Fail C4CP
107 3 3 0 Suc C4CP
108 3 3 0 Suc C4CP
109 11 7 4 Fail C4CP
110 7 3 4 Fail C4CP
111 4 3 1 Suc C4CP
112 2 2 0 Suc C4CP
113 1 0 1 Fail C4CP
114 1 0 1 Suc C4CP
115 2 1 1 Fail C4CP
116 9 5 4 Suc C4CP
117 4 3 1 Suc C4CP
118 4 2 2 Suc C4CP
119 3 3 0 Suc C4CP
120 5 4 1 Suc C4CP
121 2 1 1 Suc C4CP
122 4 3 1 Suc C4CP
123 1 1 0 Suc C4CP
124 1 1 0 Suc C4CP
125 7 7 0 Suc C4CP
126 1 0 1 Fail C4CP
127 9 6 3 Fail C4CP
128 2 2 0 Suc C4CP
129 8 5 3 Suc C4CP
130 4 4 0 Suc C4CP
131 13 12 1 Suc C4CP
132 1 1 0 Suc C4CP
133 9 6 3 Suc C4CP
134 4 3 1 Suc C4CP
135 6 3 3 Suc C4CP
136 16 11 5 Suc C5WP
137 2 1 1 Fail C5WP
138 3 2 1 Fail C5WP
139 5 5 0 Suc C5WP
140 3 1 2 Suc C5WP
141 4 4 0 Suc C5WP
142 7 4 3 Suc C5WP
143 3 2 1 Suc C5WP
144 12 11 1 Suc C5WP
145 13 8 5 Suc C5WP
146 5 4 1 Suc C5WP
147 1 1 0 Suc C5WP
148 4 2 2 Suc C5WP
149 18 17 1 Suc C5WP
150 5 5 0 Suc C5WP
151 5 3 2 Suc C5WP
152 10 7 3 Suc C5WP
153 1 1 0 Suc C5WP
154 6 5 1 Suc C5WP
155 9 5 4 Suc C5WP
156 4 2 2 Suc C5WP
157 3 3 0 Suc C5WP
158 5 4 1 Suc C5WP
159 9 7 2 Suc C5WP
160 15 12 3 Fail C5WP
161 10 10 0 Fail C5WP
162 2 1 1 Suc C5WP
163 7 6 1 Suc C1WST
164 3 3 0 Suc C1WST
165 14 12 2 Suc C1WST
166 4 4 0 Suc C1WST
167 1 1 0 Suc C1WST
168 8 7 1 Suc C1WST
169 2 1 1 Fail C1WST
170 6 6 0 Fail C1WST
171 2 2 0 Suc C1WST
172 10 10 0 Suc C1WST
173 7 7 0 Suc C1WST
174 1 1 0 Suc C1WST
175 4 4 0 Suc C1WST
176 1 1 0 Suc C1WST
177 15 13 2 Suc C1WST
178 3 2 1 Suc C1WST
179 5 5 0 Suc C1WST
180 1 1 0 Suc C1WST
181 13 11 2 Suc C1WST
182 10 9 1 Suc C1WST
183 10 7 3 Suc C6WP
184 8 8 0 Suc C6WP
185 49 44 5 Fail C6WP
186 39 35 4 Fail C6WP
187 5 3 2 Fail C6WP
188 32 27 5 Fail C6WP
189 32 28 4 Suc C6WP
190 3 3 0 Suc C6WP
191 22 22 0 Suc C6WP
192 1 1 0 Suc C6WP
193 5 5 0 Suc C6WP
194 13 13 0 Suc C6WP
195 7 7 0 Suc C6WP
196 10 9 1 Suc C6WP
197 39 35 4 Fail C6WP
198 127 118 9 Fail C6WP
199 1 1 0 Suc C6WP
200 3 3 0 Suc C6WP

I had 255 Int throughout.
I did the following combines :

GoD Newbie quests from 0 - 54
Class 1 Bone Point to 68
Class 3 Wood Point to 82
Class 4 Wood Point to 102
Class 4 Ceramic Point to 135
Class 5 Wood Point to 162
Class 1 Wood Silver Tip to 182
Class 6 Wood Point to 200 (Triv 202)


The following table shows the number of attempts required per skill up and the number predicted for each difficulty level. As you can see y=3 matches best. Each is the average for that item as individual skill ups are some times very aborant (thanks RNG :-)

From To Name Actl Y = 2 Y = 3 Y = 4
0 31 New1 2.26 1.35 1.81 2.41
31 38 New2 2.86 1.42 1.86 2.48
38 46 New3 2.88 2.04 3.00 2.60
46 54 New4 2.13 1.57 2.06 2.74
54 68 C1BP 4.00 1.70 2.23 2.97
68 82 C3WP 1.86 1.86 2.42 3.23
82 102 C4WP 2.90 2.13 2.77 3.70
102 135 C4CP 4.45 2.82 3.66 4.88
135 162 C5WP 6.67 4.30 5.50 7.34
162 182 1WST 5.85 7.71 9.77 13.03
182 200 C6WP 22.56 18.08 22.82 30.43

0 200 Avrg 5.60 4.31 5.53 7.32

Overall the difference between Y=3 and my actual results is about 1.25% or not very much. I'm not 100% sure if this is a significant result as I have forgotten most of my stats (Its a long time since Uni) but I would be fairly confident using Y=3 for fletching atm. I guess that there is a possibility that y=2 and I was unlucky, but I really doubt that y=4.

HTH

Let me know if anyone wants to see any more numbers :-)

Jarak the fletching enchanter.

I logged onto my Human Rogue Alt, level 16, who started off with 0 Blacksmithing. After having prepped the necessary components with my Cleric, I had enough for 160 combines.

My Rogue had the following stats: 129 STR, 88 STA, 102 AGI, 99 DEX, 75 WIS, 78 INT, 75 CHA. He had no Geerlock or other +% item equipped. Below is the result of making 160 Embroidering Needle attempts:

[Wed Apr 28 19:00:43 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:00:49 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:00:55 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:01:01 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:01:08 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:01:21 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:01:29 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:01:35 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:01:35 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (1)
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:10 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:10 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (2)
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:16 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:16 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (3)

[Wed Apr 28 19:02:22 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:29 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:35 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:40 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:40 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (4)
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:46 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:53 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:02:53 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (5)
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:08 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:08 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (6)
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:14 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:19 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:19 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (7)
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:26 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:26 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (8)

[Wed Apr 28 19:03:32 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (9)
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:32 2004] You have fashioned the items together to create something new!
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:32 2004] You have learned the recipe Embroidering Needle!
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:52 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:55 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:03:57 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:00 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:03 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:05 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:08 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:10 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:10 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (10)
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:13 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:13 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (11)

[Wed Apr 28 19:04:16 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:04:19 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:05:43 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (12)
[Wed Apr 28 19:05:43 2004] You have fashioned the items together to create something new!
[Wed Apr 28 19:05:52 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:05:52 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (13)
[Wed Apr 28 19:05:55 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:05:57 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:03 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:03 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (14)
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:06 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:08 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:11 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.

[Wed Apr 28 19:06:13 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:16 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:19 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:19 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (15)
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:21 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:21 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (16)
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:24 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:26 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:26 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (17)
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:29 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:29 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (18)
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:31 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:31 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (19)
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:34 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:34 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (20)
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:37 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.

[Wed Apr 28 19:06:39 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:41 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:44 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:44 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (21)
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:46 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:49 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:51 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:53 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:56 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:06:59 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:07:01 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.

[Wed Apr 28 19:07:04 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:07:07 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:07:07 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (22)
[Wed Apr 28 19:07:09 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:07:11 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (23)
[Wed Apr 28 19:07:11 2004] You have fashioned the items together to create something new!
[Wed Apr 28 19:07:16 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:02 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:02 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (24)
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:05 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:07 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:10 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:12 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:12 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (25)

[Wed Apr 28 19:09:15 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:17 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:17 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (26)
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:20 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:22 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:25 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:27 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:29 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:32 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:32 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (27)
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:34 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:37 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.

[Wed Apr 28 19:09:39 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:39 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (28)
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:42 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:44 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:47 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:49 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:52 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:55 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:09:57 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:00 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:02 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.

[Wed Apr 28 19:10:05 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:05 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (29)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:07 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:09 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:12 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:12 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (30)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:15 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:15 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (31)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:17 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:17 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (32)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:20 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:20 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (33)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:22 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:22 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (34)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:25 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:27 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (35)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:27 2004] You have fashioned the items together to create something new!

[Wed Apr 28 19:10:31 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:31 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (36)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:34 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:37 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:40 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:40 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (37)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:42 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:42 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (38)
[Wed Apr 28 19:10:45 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:26 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:29 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (39)
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:29 2004] You have fashioned the items together to create something new!
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:36 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:38 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.

[Wed Apr 28 19:13:41 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:41 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (40)
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:43 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:43 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (41)
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:46 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:49 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:51 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:54 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:56 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:13:59 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:01 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:04 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.

[Wed Apr 28 19:14:06 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:06 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (42)
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:09 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:11 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:13 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:16 2004] You have fashioned the items together to create something new!
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:21 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:21 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (43)
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:24 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:26 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:28 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:31 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:31 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (44)

[Wed Apr 28 19:14:34 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:36 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:38 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:41 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:44 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:46 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:46 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (45)
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:49 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:51 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:54 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:54 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (46)
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:56 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:14:56 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (47)

[Wed Apr 28 19:14:58 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:01 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:01 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (48)
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:04 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:04 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (49)
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:06 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:06 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (50)
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:09 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:11 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:13 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:16 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:16 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (51)
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:18 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:21 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:21 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (52)

[Wed Apr 28 19:15:24 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:26 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:15:29 2004] You have fashioned the items together to create something new!
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:45 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:45 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (53)
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:47 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:50 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:50 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (54)
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:53 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:53 2004] You have become better at Blacksmithing! (55)
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:55 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:16:58 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.
[Wed Apr 28 19:17:01 2004] You lacked the skills to fashion the items together.