master's don

[Cloud]

Correct me if i am wrong but isn't don master supose to have 5% chance of skill up? Well i did 70 tailoring master's combines and got 1 skill up. I have also had way under 5% skill up on don master's and can't figure out why when it is supose to have a set mod and yet i am getting under 2.5% after close to 200 combines of it.

[Bumkus]

Correct me if i am wrong but isn't don master supose to have 5% chance of skill up? Well i did 70 tailoring master's combines and got 1 skill up. I have also had way under 5% skill up on don master's and can't figure out why when it is supose to have a set mod and yet i am getting under 2.5% after close to 200 combines of it.

I had a decect run very early on with DoN master's combines. 1 in 11, 1 in 15? something like that. very happy. since then, in 200+ combines, I am running closer to 1 in 30, with 285 Wis and tailoring in the low/mid 250's.

Just from watching these boards, it seems that people with max (like 405) primary stat are getting skillups at the expected rate. posts from sub 300 primary stats people seem to run much much lower.

I cannot absolutely prove that DoN master's is giving lower than expected skillups, but my feeling is strong enough that I have all but discontinued DoN masters (and tailoring in general) until I can get more info or can get my stats way way up.

Cloud, is it safe to assume that your primary stat is somewhere still in the 200's? I am wondering if it is possible to code all other tailoring as a 2 difficulty (per Tanker way back when.) and DoN tailoring as a 4, to help minimize skillups rates.

[Ngreth Thergn]

I believe Tanker confirmed that it is only a min 5% on pass 2.

so if your pass 1 is not 100% then you do not get the full 5%

[Bumkus]

I believe Tanker confirmed that it is only a min 5% on pass 2.

so if your pass 1 is not 100% then you do not get the full 5%

Thank you Ngreth. Can you link the most recent description of the formula for pass 1 and pass 2? I can try to explain my understanding, but I do not want to introduce bad information.

If anyone is comfortable enough with the formula to work through an example, my condition is:
Wis-285
Current Tailoring-256

The bottom line is, what is skillup % overall for a DoN combine and for a non-DoN combine? It is difficult to see what is reflected in the calculator, because there is no switch for whether the number generated is for DoN or other type of combine.

Any help with this would be appreciated.

[Fourchette]

I can't give any hard figures, but my skillup rate from 268 to 300 in tailoring using DoN master's armor was indeed around 5%. Like the first poster, I had some poor runs in there. I got 1 skillup in 70 combines at one point as well. But in my very next run of 50 combines I got 5 more skillups. That's random number generators for you.

[Bumkus]

I can't give any hard figures, but my skillup rate from 268 to 300 in tailoring using DoN master's armor was indeed around 5%. Like the first poster, I had some poor runs in there. I got 1 skillup in 70 combines at one point as well. But in my very next run of 50 combines I got 5 more skillups. That's random number generators for you.

What was your Primary stat? I think that is the question. My observation (which are clearly subjective and possibly flawed) is that high stat tradeskillers are skilling up at the predicted rate. low stat tradeskillers are skilling up at a lower rate.

I am trying to establish whether I need to push to 70 (from 66. long haul) and comit aa's to stat before reenganging my tailoring.p

[Bobaten]

This is the post where the current skill up forumla is listed. The short answer though, is that 269 is the magic number where the pass 2 check goes below 5%. As far as what stat you need to get to succeed pass one, since tailoring is only a difficulty 2 skill, you only need 215 int/wis to get 100% on a successful combine (double that for 100% on a failed combine).
The thing to remember, is that before all the changes went in, 5% was the old skill up rate from 180-250(then to 300 right after DoN). In those days it certainly wasn't uncommon to have runs of 50, 100, or even 200+ for a skill up, just do to bad luck with the RNG (my worst ever was 223).

[Ngreth Thergn]

Yeah... the hardest part to see is that..

5% is not a guaranteed 1 in 20... but a 5% CHANCE each time.

Tanker has the probabilites somewhere I think... but the chance of NOT hitting 5% in 60 tries is not a small as you would think You are defenitely not alone

[Flehmen]

According to the chart here in part 2.
The chance of getting your skill up (at 5% skill up chance) in 20 attempts is only 75%.
In 71 attempts you are 99% likely to get your skill up, but.. 1% you still won't.

Ten.

[Ishwar]

According to the chart here in part 2.
The chance of getting your skill up (at 5% skill up chance) in 20 attempts is only 75%.
In 71 attempts you are 99% likely to get your skill up, but.. 1% you still won't.

Ten.

Actually its a 2.6% chance that you will not get a skillup in 71 attempts, if you have 5% chance to skillup. If you skill up 20 points, there ias a 58.8% chance that at some point you will go at least 71 combines without a skillup.

Randomness is not very intuitive.

[Phantron]

I think at those skill level you have a higher than 5% skill up rate even before the DoN modifier kicks in.

Also he got 1 skillup in 70 attempts, not 0 in 71. If you model it as succeeding once in 20 combines then no success in 50 combines, and that skill up once in 20 combines is perfectly likely (100%), then there's an 8% chance to go 50 combines without skillup, which isn't very unlikely at all. This is also just one possible way to end up with 1 skillup in 70 tries so the actual chance is at least 8%.

[Flehmen]

Wow, remind me not to talk statistics here ever again....

Ten.

[Phantron]

The best statement I've seen regarding probabilities is this:

If you do something that is very unlikely long enough, the chance of it happening becomes very likely.

Winning the lottery, for example, is very unlikely. But if you do it long enough (in this case you includes everyone in the state), it becomes very likely to win. And indeed, lotteries do get won by someone on a regular basis.

[Bumkus]

RNG aside. Is there anyone with 215 or lower primary stat (max required assuming Tailoring is a 2) that is getting skill ups at the expected rate? That is where my question lies.