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What sort of success rate should I expect?

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  • What sort of success rate should I expect?

    Q: What sort of success rate should I expect?

    A: To answer that, I've taken a re-cap of the success rate discussion and posted it here. Thanks Ishwar for the the summary.
    The theory that explains it all is the following

    Success* = Skill - 0.75*Trivial + 51.5 (rounded up, for Trivial>= 68)
    Success* = Skill - Trivial + 66 (for Trivial < 68)

    Of course we all know that

    Success = max(5,min(Success*,95?))

    The underlying mechanics is that there each item has a dificulty and the succes is given as

    Success* = Skill +50 - dificulty.

    Trivial = Dificulty + 16 (for Dificulty <=50)
    Trivial = 4/3 * Dificulty + 2 (for Dificulty > 50)

    So far almost all trivial numbers are attainable this way (and the few that are not, are very hard to verify). The popular trivials corespond to round dificulties. And last the harders dificulties attainable (255) gives around 50% succes with max skill, consistend with what people report on infused cultural.

    There is some specultaion that the function is really a step function for low succes rates (>60) and some data supporting this, but this is still an open question.

    The upper limit (the "95%" limit) is also not excatly determined.
    Ishwar - level 55 Barbarian Rogue - Wind of Tranquility - AB server

    Originally posted by Ishwar2 on 10/8/02 1:50:51 am
    For those with difficulty remembering the order of operations:

    Percentage = (skill - (trivial*.75)) + 51.5

    Q: What about items which are really trivial?

    A: Code was introduced to reduce the number of failures on items which have a trivial level below your skill.

    From the patch message of July 10, 2003:
    - Tradeskill chance of failures changed - The higher your skill is over the trivial of the combine, the less likely you are to fail with a combine. This is a reduction on the chance to always fail.
    Quote from Frizznik (SoE developer) about this subject:
    [Thu Jun 12 18:47:34 2003] Frizznik tells the group, 'if you make something that you are 200 over the trivial on'
    [Thu Jun 12 18:47:38 2003] Frizznik tells the group, 'you will never fail'
    Also, we've been told by Tanker (SoE Tradeskills Developer), that for every 50 skill points you are beyond the trivial your chance of failure decreases by 25%. (Quote for this comment still pending, I have it somewhere! ~Lothay)

    To help you rapidly calculate your chance of success, the mighty House Ogre included the handy-dandy Success Rate Calculator.
    Last edited by Lothay; 08-08-2004, 11:31 AM. Reason: Updated with links and addtional information 08-08-2004
    Lothay retired from EQ in 2003
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